As Nigeria gears up for the 2027 general elections, a heated political controversy has emerged, pitting former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi against prominent figures in the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the broader political establishment. Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike, and Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu, Bayo Onanuga, have publicly criticized Obi’s pledge to serve only a single four-year term if elected president. The clash, which unfolded in early September 2025, underscores the deepening divisions within Nigeria’s political landscape and highlights the strategic maneuvering ahead of the 2027 polls.
The controversy centers on Obi’s commitment to a one-term presidency, a promise he shares with former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, both of whom are reportedly eyeing the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as a platform for their 2027 ambitions. El-Rufai, Wike, and Onanuga have dismissed the pledge as deceptive and unrealistic, accusing Obi of misleading voters and undermining the credibility of political promises. This article delves into the details of the dispute, examines its significance within Nigeria’s volatile political context, analyzes the socio-economic and regional dynamics at play, and offers policy recommendations to foster a more transparent and inclusive electoral process.
The Clash: A Public Rebuke of Obi’s Pledge
The controversy erupted following Peter Obi’s public declaration that, if elected in 2027, he would serve only a single four-year term, a stance echoed by Rotimi Amaechi. Obi, who ran as the Labour Party candidate in the 2023 presidential election, has been exploring the ADC as a potential platform, signaling a possible shift from his previous political base. The pledge, intended to appeal to voters disillusioned with prolonged tenures and unfulfilled promises, has instead drawn sharp criticism from key political figures.
Nasir El-Rufai’s Critique: During an appearance on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics on August 31, 2025, El-Rufai, a prominent member of the ADC and former APC stalwart, challenged the credibility of one-term pledges. Drawing on his experience as Kaduna State Governor from 2015 to 2023, El-Rufai argued that four years is insufficient to effect meaningful change in government. “On the question of people coming out to say ‘I will do one term,’ I don’t think anyone believes them,” he stated. “You should not constitutionally give up what is yours. And frankly, as someone that has been a governor for eight years, and Amaechi and Peter Obi have both been governors, they know the time it takes to make meaningful change in government.”
El-Rufai’s remarks were not merely a critique of Obi’s promise but a broader commentary on political rhetoric. He emphasized that such pledges lack authenticity, as political realities often shift once a candidate assumes office. His comments align with his reputation for bluntness, but they also reflect his own political ambitions within the ADC, where he is reportedly at odds with other coalition members over the party’s 2027 presidential ticket.
Nyesom Wike’s Rebuttal: Speaking during his monthly media chat in Abuja on September 1, 2025, FCT Minister Nyesom Wike echoed El-Rufai’s sentiments, cautioning Obi against deceiving Nigerians with promises of a single term. Wike, a former PDP governor of Rivers State and now a key figure in Tinubu’s administration, argued that circumstances change once a leader assumes office, rendering such pledges unreliable. “It’s very clear. El-Rufai said stop saying that you will run for four years, it’s not correct. I don’t want people to be deceived. Circumstances will change,” Wike stated. “How can you sit down and a president tells you, ‘I will run for four years,’ then you believe him? That is not correct. Don’t tell Nigerians such story.”
Wike also questioned Obi’s lack of clarity on his 2027 platform, asking whether he would run under the Labour Party, PDP, or ADC. “This era of social media, which party will you run? Is it Labour? Where will he get the six million votes, under the PDP?” he queried, suggesting that Obi’s ambiguity could mislead his supporters. Wike’s comments reflect his ongoing rivalry with Obi, rooted in their divergent paths since the 2023 elections, where Wike’s support for Tinubu helped secure the APC’s victory.
Bayo Onanuga’s Accusations: Presidential aide Bayo Onanuga escalated the rhetoric, accusing Obi, El-Rufai, and Amaechi of being “political laggards and underachievers” plotting to unseat President Tinubu. In a statement posted on X on September 1, 2025, Onanuga described El-Rufai’s criticism of Obi as hypocritical, given his own acknowledgment that four years is insufficient for meaningful change. “Nasir El-Rufai confesses here that four years is not enough for a political office holder to make ‘meaningful changes.’ Yet he is at the forefront of the gang of political desperados plotting President Tinubu’s ouster, just two years into his tenure. What a contradiction!” Onanuga wrote.
Onanuga contrasted Tinubu’s achievements—such as increased foreign reserves, forex market reforms, and declining inflation—with the records of Obi, El-Rufai, and Amaechi during their tenures as governors. He argued that the trio’s alleged plot against Tinubu stems from their political irrelevance and desperation for power. “May they never succeed in their plot against our nation and people,” he concluded, framing the controversy as a broader attack on the APC’s governance.
Political Context: The Road to 2027
The clash over Obi’s one-term pledge is emblematic of the intense political maneuvering ahead of the 2027 elections. Nigeria’s political landscape is characterized by fierce competition, regional power dynamics, and the influence of informal power rotation agreements between the northern and southern regions. The 2023 election, which saw Tinubu (Southwest) defeat Obi (Southeast) and Atiku Abubakar (Northeast), highlighted these tensions, with Obi’s strong showing among urban and youth voters signaling his enduring appeal.
Obi’s Strategy and the ADC Coalition: Obi’s pledge to serve a single term is a calculated move to differentiate himself from career politicians and appeal to voters frustrated with prolonged tenures. His exploration of the ADC, alongside figures like El-Rufai, Amaechi, and Atiku, reflects an attempt to forge a united opposition front to challenge the APC. The ADC, a relatively minor party, has emerged as a potential platform for this coalition, with its leadership surrendering control to opposition heavyweights in July 2025. However, internal divisions, particularly over the presidential ticket, threaten the coalition’s cohesion. El-Rufai’s insistence on a southern candidate and Atiku’s northern ambitions have created tensions, as reported by BusinessDay.
APC’s Defense and Tinubu’s Record: The APC, under Tinubu, is leveraging its incumbency to consolidate power. Onanuga’s defense of Tinubu’s achievements—such as a $41 billion external reserve high and four months of declining inflation—aims to counter opposition narratives. The administration’s reforms, including forex market harmonization and social welfare programs like the National Economic Loan Fund (NELFUND), are cited as evidence of progress. However, critics argue that high inflation (over 30% in 2024), unemployment, and insecurity remain significant challenges, fueling opposition momentum.
Regional and Ethnic Dynamics: The controversy also reflects Nigeria’s complex regional dynamics. Obi, an Igbo from the Southeast, faces skepticism about his ability to secure northern votes, a critical factor in presidential elections. El-Rufai, a northern Muslim, and Wike, a southern Christian, represent different regional interests, complicating their criticisms of Obi. The informal power rotation agreement, which favors a southern presidency until 2031, adds further complexity, with El-Rufai reportedly advocating for a southern candidate while aligning with the ADC.
Socio-Economic Implications
The debate over Obi’s one-term pledge has broader implications for Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape:
Voter Trust and Political Promises: The criticism of Obi’s pledge highlights a growing distrust in political promises. Nigerians, grappling with economic hardship and insecurity, are wary of rhetoric that appears opportunistic. El-Rufai and Wike’s warnings about the impracticality of a one-term presidency resonate with voters who have seen leaders renege on pledges once in office.
Economic Challenges: Nigeria’s economy, marked by high inflation and unemployment, shapes the 2027 discourse. Tinubu’s reforms, while praised by supporters, have yet to translate into tangible relief for many Nigerians. Obi’s appeal lies in his promise of economic revitalization, but his one-term pledge raises questions about feasibility, as critics argue transformative change requires longer tenures.
Insecurity and Governance: Insecurity, particularly in the Northwest and North Central regions, remains a critical issue. El-Rufai’s controversial claim that the government bribed bandits, debunked by the Office of the National Security Adviser, underscores the sensitivity of security narratives. Obi’s pledge to prioritize governance could resonate with voters if he articulates a clear security strategy.
Youth and Urban Support: Obi’s strong support among youth and urban voters, as seen in 2023, remains a significant factor. Social media campaigns, particularly on X, amplify his message, with posts praising his integrity and economic acumen. However, Wike’s critique of Obi’s platform ambiguity could erode this support if not addressed.
Challenges to a United Opposition
The ADC coalition faces several challenges:
Internal Divisions: The coalition’s diverse membership, including Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai, and Amaechi, is both a strength and a liability. Atiku’s presidential ambitions clash with Obi’s, while El-Rufai’s preference for the Social Democratic Party (SDP) creates tensions.
Platform Clarity: Wike’s questioning of Obi’s platform highlights the coalition’s lack of clarity. Without a unified platform, the opposition risks alienating voters.
Regional Balancing: The coalition must navigate Nigeria’s power rotation dynamics. El-Rufai’s support for a southern candidate aligns with public sentiment but complicates Atiku’s ambitions.
APC’s Incumbency Advantage: Tinubu’s control of state resources and political machinery gives the APC a formidable edge, as noted by APC supporters like Femi Fani-Kayode.
Policy Recommendations
To address the tensions and foster a constructive electoral process, the following recommendations are proposed:
Enhance Electoral Transparency: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) should strengthen electoral processes to ensure credibility, addressing concerns about rigging raised by Atiku.
Promote Issue-Based Campaigns: Political actors should focus on substantive issues like security, economy, and education rather than personal attacks. Obi could clarify his one-term pledge with a detailed policy agenda to counter skepticism.
Strengthen Opposition Cohesion: The ADC coalition should resolve internal divisions through transparent negotiations, selecting a candidate and platform that balance regional interests.
Engage Youth and Urban Voters: Obi and other opposition leaders should leverage social media to articulate clear visions, addressing concerns raised on X about platform ambiguity.
Address Economic Hardship: The APC and opposition must propose concrete solutions to inflation, unemployment, and insecurity, ensuring campaigns resonate with citizens’ realities.
Foster Regional Dialogue: Leaders should engage traditional and religious leaders to promote unity and counter divisive narratives, addressing regional tensions highlighted by El-Rufai’s stance.
Broader Implications for Nigeria’s Future
The clash over Obi’s one-term pledge reflects deeper issues in Nigeria’s political system, including distrust in leadership, regional rivalries, and the challenge of balancing short-term promises with long-term governance. The 2027 elections will test the country’s ability to navigate these tensions while addressing pressing socio-economic challenges.
For the APC, defending Tinubu’s record requires tangible improvements in living standards and security. For the opposition, unity and clarity are critical to challenging the APC’s dominance. Obi’s pledge, while innovative, risks being perceived as populist if not backed by a robust plan. The controversy also underscores the importance of voter education, as Nigerians demand accountability and transparency from their leaders.
In conclusion, the dispute between Obi, El-Rufai, Wike, and Onanuga is a microcosm of Nigeria’s complex political landscape. As the 2027 elections approach, the ability of political actors to move beyond rhetoric and deliver substantive solutions will determine Nigeria’s trajectory. By fostering dialogue, transparency, and inclusive governance, Nigeria can navigate its challenges and build a more prosperous and stable future.
