In a dramatic turn of events that has sent shockwaves through Nigeria’s political landscape, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has reportedly directed the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu, to proceed on immediate leave. The directive, which was issued on September 24, 2025, comes amid swirling allegations that Yakubu has betrayed the interests of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) during recent electoral processes. This development has sparked intense speculation about the future of Nigeria’s electoral body and the broader implications for the country’s democracy as it approaches critical election cycles.
Background: The Role of INEC and Yakubu’s Tenure
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is Nigeria’s constitutionally mandated body responsible for organizing and overseeing elections at all levels of government. Established under the 1999 Constitution, INEC is tasked with ensuring free, fair, and credible elections, a responsibility that places it at the heart of Nigeria’s democratic framework. The commission’s chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, has been at the helm since 2015, having been appointed by former President Muhammadu Buhari. Yakubu, a seasoned academic and administrator, was reappointed for a second term in 2020, making him one of the longest-serving INEC chairmen in Nigeria’s history.
Under Yakubu’s leadership, INEC has overseen several high-stakes elections, including the 2019 and 2023 general elections, as well as various off-cycle governorship and legislative elections. His tenure has been marked by both praise and criticism. Supporters credit him with introducing technological innovations, such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal, aimed at enhancing transparency in the electoral process. Critics, however, argue that his leadership has been plagued by logistical failures, allegations of bias, and controversies over election results, particularly in the 2023 presidential election, which saw Tinubu emerge victorious amid widespread disputes.
The Alleged Betrayal: What Sparked Tinubu’s Directive?
According to sources close to the presidency, President Tinubu’s decision to order Yakubu’s immediate leave stems from allegations that the INEC chairman has not aligned with the APC’s strategic interests in recent electoral activities. While specific details of the alleged betrayal remain scarce, insiders suggest that Yakubu’s handling of certain off-cycle elections and his perceived neutrality in disputes involving APC candidates have raised concerns within the ruling party’s inner circles.
The APC, which has been in power at the federal level since 2015, has often faced accusations of exerting undue influence over INEC to secure favorable electoral outcomes. However, Yakubu’s insistence on maintaining a degree of independence—whether genuine or perceived—has reportedly caused friction with party loyalists who expected more overt support from the electoral body. Sources indicate that certain APC chieftains believe Yakubu’s actions, or lack thereof, have undermined the party’s dominance in key states, particularly in regions where opposition parties have gained ground.
One specific point of contention is the recent governorship election in Edo State, held on September 21, 2025. The election, which saw the APC’s candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo, declared the winner, was marred by allegations of irregularities, including voter intimidation and manipulation of results. Opposition parties, particularly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), cried foul, accusing INEC of complicity in the APC’s victory. While Yakubu defended the commission’s conduct, some within the APC reportedly felt that INEC’s handling of the election exposed the party to unnecessary scrutiny and criticism, potentially weakening its public image.
The Directive: A Political Maneuver or a Genuine Reform?
President Tinubu’s directive for Yakubu to proceed on leave has raised questions about the motives behind the move. Political analysts are divided on whether this is a calculated attempt to tighten the APC’s grip on INEC or a genuine effort to address perceived shortcomings in the electoral process. The timing of the directive, coming just months before preparations for the 2027 general elections begin in earnest, suggests that the administration may be seeking to install a more pliable figure at the helm of INEC to ensure favorable conditions for the ruling party.
The decision to place Yakubu on leave, rather than outright removal, is also significant. Under Nigerian law, the INEC chairman can only be removed through a complex process involving the Senate, which must confirm any such decision with a two-thirds majority. By directing Yakubu to proceed on leave, Tinubu may be avoiding a protracted legal and political battle while still achieving the objective of sidelining him temporarily—or permanently, depending on how events unfold.
Speculation is rife about who might replace Yakubu, even if only in an acting capacity. Names of potential candidates, including current INEC National Commissioners and external figures with ties to the APC, are already circulating. The appointment of a new acting chairman could significantly alter the dynamics within INEC, potentially reshaping the commission’s approach to upcoming elections and its relationship with political actors.
Reactions: A Nation Divided
The news of Yakubu’s directive to proceed on leave has elicited a wide range of reactions from stakeholders across Nigeria’s political spectrum. Opposition parties, including the PDP and the Labour Party, have cautiously welcomed the development, viewing it as an opportunity to push for broader electoral reforms. However, they have also expressed skepticism about the government’s intentions, warning that the move could be a pretext for installing a more partisan figure to manipulate future elections.
PDP spokesperson, Debo Ologunagba, issued a statement calling for transparency in the process and urging the government to ensure that INEC remains independent. “While we acknowledge the need for accountability within INEC, we are concerned that this directive may be a ploy to further erode the commission’s autonomy,” Ologunagba said. “Nigerians deserve an electoral body that is truly independent and capable of delivering credible elections.”
Civil society organizations and election monitoring groups have also weighed in, emphasizing the need for INEC to maintain its credibility. The Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), a coalition of civil society organizations, called for a thorough investigation into the allegations against Yakubu but cautioned against any actions that could undermine public confidence in the electoral process. “The integrity of INEC is paramount to Nigeria’s democracy,” the TMG stated. “Any changes in leadership must be transparent and in accordance with the law.”
Within the APC, reactions have been mixed. While some party members have privately expressed relief at Yakubu’s sidelining, others worry that the move could backfire, portraying the party as intolerant of dissent or independence within state institutions. A senior APC official, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the directive as a “necessary step to realign INEC with the party’s vision for 2027,” but acknowledged that it could fuel perceptions of interference.
The Broader Context: Nigeria’s Electoral Challenges
The controversy surrounding Yakubu’s leave directive comes at a time when Nigeria’s electoral system is under intense scrutiny. The 2023 general elections, which brought Tinubu to power, were widely criticized for logistical failures, delays in result transmission, and allegations of vote rigging. The introduction of BVAS and IReV was meant to address these issues, but their implementation was marred by technical glitches and accusations of sabotage. The fallout from the election led to numerous legal challenges, with opposition candidates, including Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, contesting Tinubu’s victory at the Supreme Court.
The Edo election, seen as a litmus test for INEC’s readiness for 2027, further highlighted the challenges facing the commission. Reports of voter suppression, delays in the deployment of election materials, and discrepancies in result collation have fueled distrust in INEC’s ability to conduct credible elections. Yakubu’s insistence that the commission performed admirably in Edo has done little to quell these concerns, with many Nigerians calling for systemic reforms to restore faith in the electoral process.
Beyond INEC, Nigeria’s democracy faces deeper structural issues. The country’s political landscape is characterized by intense competition, often along ethnic and regional lines, which places immense pressure on institutions like INEC to navigate complex political dynamics. The perception that electoral outcomes are predetermined or influenced by powerful interests has eroded public trust, leading to voter apathy and disillusionment. According to a 2024 survey by Afrobarometer, only 23% of Nigerians expressed confidence in INEC’s ability to deliver free and fair elections, a significant decline from previous years.
Implications for 2027 and Beyond
As Nigeria looks ahead to the 2027 general elections, the implications of Yakubu’s leave directive are profound. The selection of his successor, whether temporary or permanent, will likely shape the tone and conduct of the electoral process. A chairman perceived as too closely aligned with the APC could deepen mistrust among opposition parties and voters, potentially leading to increased tensions and even violence during the election period. Conversely, a reform-minded leader committed to transparency could help restore confidence in INEC and strengthen Nigeria’s democratic institutions.
The directive also raises questions about Tinubu’s broader political strategy. As a president who came to power amid controversy, Tinubu faces the challenge of consolidating his authority while addressing Nigeria’s myriad economic and security challenges. The economy, grappling with inflation, currency devaluation, and unemployment, remains a top concern for Nigerians, and any perception of electoral manipulation could further erode public support for the administration.
Moreover, the international community is closely watching Nigeria’s democratic processes. The United States, European Union, and other global partners have consistently emphasized the importance of free and fair elections as a cornerstone of Nigeria’s stability. Any actions that undermine INEC’s independence could strain Nigeria’s diplomatic relations and impact foreign investment, which the country desperately needs to address its economic woes.
Historical Parallels: INEC Leadership Controversies
This is not the first time an INEC chairman has faced pressure from the government. In 2010, then-President Goodluck Jonathan removed Professor Maurice Iwu from his position as INEC chairman amid allegations of incompetence and bias following the controversial 2007 elections. Iwu’s exit paved the way for Professor Attahiru Jega, whose tenure was widely praised for its reforms, including the introduction of the Permanent Voter Card (PVC) system.
However, Jega’s departure in 2015, just months after overseeing the historic election that brought Buhari to power, was also mired in speculation about political interference. Yakubu’s current situation draws parallels to these earlier episodes, underscoring the delicate balance INEC chairmen must strike between independence and political pressures.
The Path Forward: Reforms and Recommendations
To address the current crisis and prevent further erosion of public trust, several steps are necessary. First, the government must ensure that the process of replacing or reinstating Yakubu is transparent and adheres to constitutional provisions. Any perception of a rushed or partisan appointment could deepen divisions and undermine INEC’s credibility.
Second, INEC must prioritize comprehensive electoral reforms. This includes addressing logistical challenges, improving the functionality of BVAS and IReV, and ensuring that election officials are adequately trained and insulated from political pressures. The commission should also engage with stakeholders, including civil society and opposition parties, to rebuild trust and foster a collaborative approach to elections.
Third, the judiciary’s role in adjudicating electoral disputes must be strengthened. Nigeria’s courts have often been criticized for their handling of election-related cases, with accusations of bias and delays. An independent and efficient judiciary is essential to ensuring that electoral grievances are resolved fairly and expeditiously.
Finally, the Nigerian public must remain vigilant. Civil society, the media, and ordinary citizens have a critical role to play in holding INEC and the government accountable. Grassroots movements, such as the #EndBadGovernance protests of 2024, demonstrate the power of collective action in demanding accountability and reform.
Conclusion
President Tinubu’s directive for INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu to proceed on immediate leave has thrust Nigeria’s electoral system into the spotlight once again. While the exact reasons for the decision remain shrouded in speculation, the move has far-reaching implications for the country’s democracy, particularly as it prepares for the 2027 elections. Whether this is a genuine attempt to address electoral shortcomings or a strategic maneuver to consolidate power, the outcome will depend on how the government navigates this critical juncture.
For now, Nigerians are left grappling with uncertainty about the future of INEC and the integrity of their electoral process. As the nation awaits further developments, the hope is that this moment will serve as a catalyst for meaningful reforms that strengthen democracy and restore public confidence in the institutions tasked with safeguarding it.
