Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan has revealed that he felt betrayed by key political figures and institutions during the 2015 general election, which resulted in his historic defeat to Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Speaking at the inaugural Raymond Dokpesi Annual Diamond Lecture in Abuja on October 25, 2024, Jonathan opened up about the emotional toll of the election loss and the sense of isolation that followed. His remarks, delivered at an event organized by Daar Communications and the Nigerian Institute of Public Relations to honor the late media mogul Raymond Dokpesi, shed light on the political dynamics, internal party struggles, and external pressures that shaped the outcome of the 2015 election.
Jonathan’s candid reflection offers a rare glimpse into the challenges faced by an incumbent president during one of Nigeria’s most pivotal electoral moments. His defeat marked the first time a sitting Nigerian president lost a re-election bid, and his decision to concede defeat before the final results were announced set a precedent for peaceful democratic transitions in Africa’s most populous nation. This article explores Jonathan’s claims of betrayal, the context of the 2015 election, the factors contributing to his loss, and the broader implications for Nigeria’s political landscape.
The 2015 Election: A Historic Turning Point
The 2015 Nigerian general election, held on March 28 and 29, was a defining moment in the country’s democratic history. It was the fifth quadrennial election since the return to civilian rule in 1999, following decades of military governance. The election saw voters elect the president, members of the House of Representatives, and senators, with incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) seeking a second full term after assuming office in 2010 following the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua.
The election was highly contentious, with intense political rhetoric, widespread anxiety, and fears of potential violence. The PDP, which had governed Nigeria since 1999, faced a formidable challenge from the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), a coalition of opposition parties united under the banner of “change.” The APC’s candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, a former military head of state, capitalized on public discontent with the PDP’s 16-year rule, which many Nigerians associated with corruption, economic stagnation, and insecurity.
The election was initially scheduled for February 14, 2015, but was postponed by six weeks to March 28 due to logistical challenges, including delays in distributing Permanent Voter Cards and concerns about the Boko Haram insurgency in the Northeast. The postponement sparked controversy, with the APC accusing the PDP of attempting to manipulate the process to retain power. Nigeria’s land and sea borders were closed during the voting period to ensure security, and technical issues with biometric card readers extended the election to a second day.
When the results were announced, Buhari secured 15,424,921 votes (53.96%), defeating Jonathan, who garnered 12,853,162 votes (44.96%). Buhari won 21 states, while Jonathan carried 15 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Under Nigeria’s electoral laws, a presidential candidate must secure the highest number of votes and at least 25% of the vote in two-thirds of the 36 states and the FCT to win outright. Buhari met these criteria, marking a historic victory for the opposition.
Jonathan’s decision to concede defeat on March 31, 2015, before all results were finalized, was a landmark moment. His phone call to Buhari, in which he said, “Congratulations, Your Excellency,” ended the PDP’s 16-year dominance and set a new standard for democratic transitions in Nigeria. The concession averted potential violence and earned Jonathan international acclaim for his statesmanship. However, his recent remarks about betrayal reveal the complex behind-the-scenes dynamics that shaped his defeat.
Jonathan’s Claims of Betrayal
At the Raymond Dokpesi Annual Diamond Lecture, Jonathan spoke candidly about the emotional and political challenges he faced during the 2015 election. “I felt like the world was against me when I lost the election in 2015,” he said, reflecting on the sense of isolation that engulfed him as the results became clear. He alleged that he was betrayed by key figures within the PDP, including the party’s former National Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, and some northern leaders. Jonathan also pointed to external influences, notably former U.S. President Barack Obama, whom he accused of displaying bias by issuing a video message that implicitly urged Nigerians to vote for the opposition.
According to Jonathan, the betrayal by PDP leaders was particularly painful. The party, which had been in power since 1999, was plagued by internal divisions in the lead-up to the election. Several high-profile defections, including those of governors and senior party members, weakened the PDP’s cohesion and electoral strategy. Jonathan singled out Muazu, who served as PDP National Chairman from 2014 to 2015, as a key figure who failed to rally the party effectively. Reports from the time suggest that Muazu’s leadership was marred by allegations of disloyalty and ineffective coordination, which undermined the PDP’s campaign efforts.
Jonathan also referenced the role of northern elites within the PDP, many of whom reportedly aligned with the APC due to regional and political considerations. The North, which had historically held significant political influence, was a critical battleground in the election. Buhari, a northerner from Katsina State, enjoyed strong support in the region, while Jonathan, a southerner from Bayelsa State, struggled to maintain the PDP’s traditional northern base. The defection of prominent northern PDP members, such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and several governors, further eroded Jonathan’s support.
In addition to internal party dynamics, Jonathan accused external actors of influencing the election outcome. In his book, My Transition Hours, published in 2018, he criticized former U.S. President Barack Obama for releasing a video message on March 23, 2015, that urged Nigerians to “open the next chapter” in their democratic journey. Jonathan interpreted the message as a subtle endorsement of the APC, arguing that it was an unusual and condescending intervention by a foreign leader. The video, which emphasized the need for a free and fair election, was seen by some as an attempt to sway voters against the incumbent.
Jonathan’s claims of betrayal are supported by other sources from the period. For example, former Akwa Ibom State Governor Godswill Akpabio, now a senator, admitted to working against Jonathan in 2015, citing political differences and regional interests. Similarly, socio-political activist Aisha Yesufu alleged that Jonathan’s spokesperson, Reuben Abati, contributed to the PDP’s defeat by failing to manage the administration’s public image effectively. These accounts paint a picture of a campaign undermined by internal disloyalty and external pressures.
The Emotional Toll of Defeat
Jonathan’s remarks at the Dokpesi lecture highlighted the personal toll of the 2015 election loss. “I felt like the world was against me,” he said, describing the sense of abandonment that accompanied his defeat. As the first incumbent president to lose re-election in Nigeria, Jonathan faced immense pressure from within his party, the public, and the international community. The election was marked by high stakes, with many Nigerians fearing that a disputed outcome could lead to violence, as seen in the post-election unrest of 2011.
Despite the emotional weight of the loss, Jonathan emphasized that his decision to concede was driven by a commitment to peace and national unity. “Nobody’s ambition is worth the blood of any Nigerian,” he said, reiterating a principle that guided his actions. His concession call to Buhari, made when it became clear that the APC was leading by nearly three million votes, was a bold move that surprised many in his inner circle. According to Reuben Abati, Jonathan’s spokesperson at the time, there was significant tension within the presidential villa as the results were announced, with some aides urging him to contest the outcome.
Jonathan’s decision to concede was not influenced by external pressure, he insisted. “Let me state very, very clearly that nobody within or outside the country persuaded me to do that. I knew it was the right thing to do,” he said during a 2016 convocation ceremony at Bingham University in Nasarawa State, where he was awarded an honorary doctoral degree for his role in ensuring a peaceful transition. This act of statesmanship earned him widespread praise, with many crediting him with averting a potential crisis in a country with a history of electoral violence.
Factors Contributing to Jonathan’s Defeat
While Jonathan’s claims of betrayal highlight internal and external pressures, several broader factors contributed to his defeat in 2015. These include:
Economic Challenges: Nigeria faced significant economic difficulties during Jonathan’s presidency, including declining oil prices, which strained government revenue. The country’s heavy reliance on oil exports left it vulnerable to global market fluctuations, leading to budget deficits and delays in salary payments for civil servants. Public frustration with economic hardship fueled support for the APC’s promise of “change.”
Insecurity and Boko Haram: The Boko Haram insurgency in the Northeast was a major issue during the 2015 election. The group’s attacks, including the kidnapping of over 200 schoolgirls in Chibok in 2014, highlighted the government’s inability to address security challenges effectively. The insurgency dominated the campaign narrative, with the APC criticizing Jonathan’s administration for its perceived weakness in combating terrorism.
PDP Internal Divisions: The PDP was deeply divided in the lead-up to the election. The defection of five governors, known as the “G-5,” to the APC in 2013 weakened the party’s structure. Additionally, the contentious PDP primaries, which saw Jonathan as the sole candidate, alienated some party members who felt marginalized. These divisions hampered the PDP’s ability to mount a cohesive campaign.
APC’s Effective Campaign: The APC ran a highly effective campaign, leveraging Buhari’s reputation as a disciplined leader with a strong anti-corruption stance. The party’s “change” mantra resonated with voters frustrated with the PDP’s long tenure. The APC also benefited from a strategic merger of opposition parties, which consolidated anti-PDP sentiment.
Public Perception and Corruption: Allegations of corruption plagued Jonathan’s administration, with critics accusing the government of mismanaging public funds. High-profile scandals, such as those involving the petroleum sector, damaged the PDP’s credibility. The APC capitalized on these perceptions, presenting Buhari as a leader committed to transparency and accountability.
External Influence: Jonathan’s claim of foreign interference, particularly Obama’s video message, points to the role of international actors in shaping public opinion. While the extent of this influence is debated, the perception of external bias may have undermined confidence in Jonathan’s leadership.
The Role of the Media and Raymond Dokpesi
Jonathan’s remarks were delivered at an event honoring Raymond Dokpesi, the late founder of Daar Communications, which owns AIT and Raypower. Dokpesi, who passed away in May 2023, was a prominent media mogul and PDP stalwart who played a significant role in shaping Nigeria’s media landscape. During the 2015 election, AIT faced accusations of bias toward the PDP, with the APC alleging that the station aired content critical of Buhari. This led to tensions with the APC, which briefly banned AIT from covering its activities after the election.
Jonathan’s appearance at the Dokpesi lecture was an opportunity to reflect on the media’s role in democracy. He praised Dokpesi for his contributions to free expression and acknowledged the challenges faced by media outlets during the election. The media’s role in shaping public perception was a critical factor in 2015, with both traditional and social media amplifying narratives of change and dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Implications for Nigeria’s Democracy
Jonathan’s defeat and subsequent concession had far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s democracy. His decision to step aside peacefully marked a significant departure from the country’s history of electoral disputes and violence. The 2015 election demonstrated that power could change hands through the ballot box, reinforcing the democratic process in a nation with a turbulent political past.
The election also highlighted the growing influence of opposition politics in Nigeria. The APC’s victory showed that a united opposition could challenge entrenched political powers, setting a precedent for future elections. However, it also exposed the fragility of party loyalty, as defections and internal divisions played a significant role in the PDP’s loss.
Jonathan’s claims of betrayal raise important questions about trust and loyalty in Nigerian politics. The defections within the PDP and the alleged disloyalty of key figures underscore the challenges of maintaining party unity in a diverse and competitive political landscape. These dynamics continue to shape Nigerian politics, with defections remaining a common feature of election cycles.
Lessons for Future Elections
Jonathan’s experience offers several lessons for Nigerian leaders and political parties:
Party Unity: Internal cohesion is critical for electoral success. Political parties must address grievances and foster inclusivity to prevent defections and divisions.
Effective Communication: Managing public perception is essential in a media-driven age. Jonathan’s administration struggled to counter negative narratives, highlighting the need for robust communication strategies.
Security and Governance: Addressing security challenges and delivering tangible governance outcomes are key to maintaining public support. The Boko Haram crisis significantly undermined Jonathan’s re-election bid.
Democratic Norms: Jonathan’s concession set a standard for peaceful transitions. Future leaders must prioritize national stability over personal ambition to strengthen Nigeria’s democracy.
External Influence: While external actors can play a role in elections, leaders must focus on building domestic support to counter foreign narratives.
Public and Political Reactions
Jonathan’s recent remarks have sparked varied reactions. Supporters of the former president have praised his candor, arguing that his claims of betrayal highlight the challenges of leadership in a complex political environment. Critics, however, contend that Jonathan’s focus on betrayal deflects responsibility for his administration’s shortcomings, such as its handling of security and corruption.
Political analysts have noted that Jonathan’s reflection comes at a time when Nigeria is grappling with new challenges under the APC government. Issues such as inflation, insecurity, and infrastructure deficits persist, raising questions about whether the “change” promised in 2015 has been delivered. Some commentators argue that Jonathan’s legacy as a democratic statesman overshadows his electoral loss, citing his role in fostering stability.
The Broader Context: Nigeria’s Political Evolution
The 2015 election was a turning point in Nigeria’s political evolution, marking a shift toward competitive multi-party democracy. Jonathan’s defeat and concession demonstrated the power of the electorate to effect change, while also exposing the complexities of governance in a diverse nation. The election highlighted the importance of addressing regional and ethnic dynamics, as well as the need for inclusive policies that bridge divides.
Since 2015, Nigeria has faced ongoing challenges, including economic hardship and insecurity. The APC, now in its second decade in power, has struggled to fulfill its campaign promises, leading to growing public frustration. Jonathan’s remarks serve as a reminder of the cyclical nature of Nigerian politics, where promises of change often give way to new challenges.
Conclusion
Goodluck Jonathan’s reflection on his 2015 election defeat offers a poignant insight into one of Nigeria’s most significant political moments. His claims of betrayal by PDP leaders, northern elites, and external actors like Barack Obama reveal the intricate web of factors that shaped the election’s outcome. Despite the personal and emotional toll of the loss, Jonathan’s decision to concede defeat remains a defining act of statesmanship, setting a standard for democratic transitions in Nigeria and beyond.
The 2015 election was more than a contest for power; it was a test of Nigeria’s democratic resilience. Jonathan’s willingness to prioritize national stability over personal ambition averted a potential crisis and reinforced the importance of peaceful transitions. His story underscores the challenges of leadership in a diverse and complex nation, where loyalty, trust, and public perception play critical roles.
As Nigeria looks to the future, the lessons of 2015 remain relevant. Political parties must prioritize unity and effective governance, while leaders must navigate internal and external pressures with wisdom and integrity. Jonathan’s legacy, marked by both his defeat and his grace in conceding, serves as a reminder of the power of democracy to shape a nation’s destiny. For Nigerians, the 2015 election is a testament to the resilience of their democratic experiment and the enduring hope for a better future.
