In a bold and confident declaration, Hon. Abdulmumin Jibrin, a member of the House of Representatives representing Kiru/Bebeji Federal Constituency in Kano State, has predicted a resounding victory for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election. Speaking during an interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today on September 3, 2025, Jibrin expressed unwavering belief in Tinubu’s re-election prospects, stating, “I believe I cannot see anything that will stop him from winning the elections in 2027.” This assertion, made by a lawmaker from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), a party distinct from Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC), has sparked widespread discussion about Nigeria’s political dynamics, coalition-building, and the factors that could shape the 2027 polls.
Jibrin’s comments come at a time when Nigeria’s political landscape is heating up, with less than two years remaining until the next general election. His endorsement of Tinubu, despite his affiliation with the NNPP and his loyalty to its leader, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, highlights the fluidity of Nigerian politics and the strategic alliances that often define electoral outcomes. This article explores the context of Jibrin’s prediction, the factors contributing to Tinubu’s perceived strength, the challenges he faces, and the broader implications for Nigeria’s political and economic future.
Jibrin’s Political Journey and Relationship with Tinubu
Abdulmumin Jibrin is no stranger to Nigeria’s political scene. A seasoned politician and fourth-term lawmaker, Jibrin has a complex history that spans multiple political parties and affiliations. Before joining the NNPP in May 2022, Jibrin was a prominent figure in the APC, where he served as the Director-General of the Bola Tinubu Support Group Council, a key organization in Tinubu’s 2023 presidential campaign. His defection to the NNPP, citing internal party disputes in the APC, particularly with Kano State Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, marked a significant shift in his political trajectory. However, Jibrin’s recent statements and actions suggest that his allegiance to Tinubu remains strong, despite his current party affiliation.
Jibrin’s relationship with Tinubu is deeply personal and professional. During the Politics Today interview, he described himself as a “Tinubu person,” emphasizing a mutual bond: “I like him, and he likes me. Irrespective of party affiliation, it has been a great relationship.” This connection was further evidenced by Jibrin’s two visits to the Presidential Villa in August 2025, which fueled speculation about a potential realignment with the APC ahead of the 2027 elections. These visits, combined with his public endorsement of Tinubu, suggest that Jibrin is positioning himself as a bridge between the APC and the NNPP, advocating for a coalition that could strengthen Tinubu’s re-election bid.
When pressed on whether he would choose Tinubu over his NNPP leader, Rabiu Kwankwaso, in the 2027 presidential race, Jibrin offered a diplomatic response: “No, I’d choose Kwankwaso and Bola Tinubu to work together, but Tinubu as president.” This statement underscores Jibrin’s desire for a political alliance that unites key figures from different regions and parties, with Tinubu at the helm. It also reflects the pragmatic nature of Nigerian politics, where coalitions and cross-party collaborations often determine electoral success.
The Case for Tinubu’s 2027 Victory
Jibrin’s confidence in Tinubu’s re-election prospects is rooted in several factors, including the president’s political acumen, policy achievements, and strong support base in key regions. Below, we explore the key elements that bolster Tinubu’s position as a frontrunner for 2027:
Political Experience and Network: Bola Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State and a political heavyweight, has a long history of building coalitions and mobilizing support across Nigeria. His role in the formation of the APC and his strategic alliances with northern politicians were instrumental in securing victories for the party in 2015 and 2023. In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu garnered 8.79 million votes, defeating his closest rivals, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), who polled 6.98 million and 6.1 million votes, respectively. His ability to secure 5.6 million votes from the northern region, a critical voting bloc, was a decisive factor in his victory.
Jibrin argues that Tinubu’s northern base remains strong, dismissing claims that the president lacks support in the region. “I don’t think he is an orphan in the north. It would be a dangerous calculation for somebody to think Tinubu has no support in the northern part of the country,” he stated. This assertion challenges the narrative that the North is united against Tinubu, pointing to the region’s internal divisions as a factor that could benefit the president in 2027.
Policy Achievements and Economic Reforms: Tinubu’s administration has implemented several reforms aimed at addressing Nigeria’s economic challenges. The removal of the petrol subsidy, liberalization of the exchange rate, and efforts to boost non-oil revenues have won praise from credit rating agencies, foreign investors, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Budget Office of the Federation reported that Nigeria’s non-oil revenues surged by 40.5% to ₦20.59 trillion in 2024, reflecting the success of these reforms in diversifying the economy. Tinubu’s declaration that the revenue target for 2024 was met by August is a positive signal for fiscal sustainability, freeing up funds for banks to lend to the real sector and stimulate production.
Jibrin has defended Tinubu’s performance, arguing that it is unfair to blame the president for Nigeria’s longstanding challenges within his two-year tenure. “The president has been there for two years, and they want to pack everything… You see, he destroyed the economy, he destroyed the education system, he destroyed the healthcare system… just within two years,” Jibrin remarked, emphasizing the need for constructive criticism and national consensus to support the government’s development trajectory.
APC’s Endorsement and Party Machinery: In May 2025, the APC’s National Working Committee officially endorsed Tinubu as its sole presidential candidate for 2027, signaling strong party support for his re-election bid. The party’s chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, highlighted Tinubu’s reforms as a foundation for economic recovery, urging party members to rally behind him. The APC’s robust political machinery, combined with its control of key states and resources, gives Tinubu a significant advantage over opposition candidates.
Disunity Among Opposition: Jibrin pointed to the disunity among northern politicians as a factor that strengthens Tinubu’s position. “What we’ve always done, if anybody rises up in the north, we gang up to bring the person down… Tinubu must be sitting somewhere and smiling because he can see how disunited we are,” he said. The opposition, comprising figures like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, and Dino Melaye, has floated a coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC). However, internal rivalries and differing agendas could weaken their ability to mount a serious challenge to Tinubu.
Power Rotation and Regional Dynamics: Jibrin dismissed claims that the North has been shortchanged in Nigeria’s power rotation arrangement, arguing that the region has held power for 39.5 years since independence in 1960, compared to 28 years for the South. He stressed that the South should complete its eight-year tenure, a position that aligns with Tinubu’s re-election bid. This argument could resonate with voters who prioritize regional balance in Nigeria’s political system.
Challenges to Tinubu’s Re-Election Bid
Despite Jibrin’s optimism, Tinubu faces significant challenges that could impact his prospects in 2027. These include:
Economic Hardships: Tinubu’s reforms, while praised by international observers, have triggered a cost-of-living crisis in Nigeria. The removal of the petrol subsidy and exchange rate liberalization have led to soaring fuel prices, inflation, and currency depreciation. These economic challenges have fueled public discontent, particularly among low-income households, and could erode Tinubu’s support base if not addressed effectively.
Insecurity: Nigeria continues to grapple with insecurity, including a long-running Islamist insurgency in the northeast, banditry in the northwest, and communal conflicts in other regions. Jibrin rejected suggestions that Tinubu is solely responsible for these issues, noting that they predate his administration. However, public perception of his handling of security could influence voter sentiment in 2027.
Opposition Coalition: While currently fragmented, the opposition coalition involving Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai, Amaechi, and others could gain traction if it consolidates into a unified front. The coalition’s adoption of the ADC as its platform signals an intent to challenge Tinubu, and their ability to mobilize voters, particularly in the North and South-East, could pose a threat.
Northern Discontent: Despite Jibrin’s dismissal of claims that the North is united against Tinubu, rising discontent over insecurity and economic challenges in the region could weaken his support. The North’s numerical strength and historical voting power make it a critical battleground, and any perception of marginalization could sway voters toward opposition candidates.
Party Dynamics and Defections: While the APC has endorsed Tinubu, internal party dynamics could complicate his campaign. Jibrin’s defection to the NNPP in 2022 and his recent overtures to Tinubu highlight the fluidity of political allegiances. The APC must navigate potential defections and manage internal rivalries to maintain its cohesion.
The Role of Kwankwaso and Potential Alliances
A significant aspect of Jibrin’s remarks is his suggestion that Rabiu Kwankwaso, the NNPP’s 2023 presidential candidate, is open to joining the APC or forming an alliance with Tinubu. “As far as that [joining APC] is concerned, he has always maintained that his doors are open, our doors are open for discussions. Everything is a possibility,” Jibrin stated. Kwankwaso, a political juggernaut in Kano State, polled nearly 1 million votes in the 2023 election, demonstrating his influence in the North-West.
A potential alliance between Tinubu and Kwankwaso could significantly bolster the APC’s chances in 2027, particularly in Kano, a state with one of the largest voting populations in Nigeria. However, challenges such as the emirship dispute in Kano and “vested interests” within the local APC could stall such a move. Jibrin’s advocacy for a Tinubu-Kwankwaso partnership reflects his belief that the South should complete its eight-year tenure, with Tinubu as president, while leveraging northern political heavyweights to secure victory.
Implications for Nigeria’s Political and Economic Future
Jibrin’s prediction of Tinubu’s 2027 victory has far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s political and economic landscape:
Strengthening Regional Alliances: A successful Tinubu-Kwankwaso alliance could bridge the North-South divide, fostering national unity and stabilizing Nigeria’s volatile political environment. Such a coalition would require careful negotiation to balance regional interests and address concerns about power rotation.
Economic Reforms and Public Perception: Tinubu’s ability to deliver on his economic reforms will be critical to his re-election bid. Sustained growth in non-oil revenues, infrastructure development, and job creation could bolster public support. However, addressing the immediate impacts of inflation and fuel price hikes is essential to mitigating public discontent.
Youth Engagement: Nigeria’s youth, who form a significant portion of the electorate, will play a pivotal role in 2027. Tinubu’s administration must prioritize policies that address unemployment, education, and technology to win their support. The 2023 election saw strong youth mobilization for Peter Obi, indicating their potential to influence outcomes.
Opposition Dynamics: The opposition’s ability to unite and present a credible alternative will determine the competitiveness of the 2027 election. A fragmented opposition could hand Tinubu an easy victory, but a unified coalition with a strong northern candidate could pose a significant challenge.
Governance and Accountability: Jibrin’s call for constructive criticism and national consensus underscores the need for improved governance and accountability. Tinubu’s administration must demonstrate transparency and deliver tangible results to maintain public trust.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Nigeria
Abdulmumin Jibrin’s bold prediction of President Bola Tinubu’s victory in the 2027 presidential election reflects the complex interplay of personal loyalties, regional dynamics, and policy achievements in Nigerian politics. As a seasoned politician with ties to both Tinubu and Kwankwaso, Jibrin’s endorsement highlights the potential for strategic alliances to shape the electoral landscape. Tinubu’s political experience, economic reforms, and strong party support position him as a formidable candidate, but challenges such as economic hardship, insecurity, and opposition dynamics could test his resilience.
With less than two years until the 2027 polls, Nigeria stands at a critical juncture. The outcome of the election will not only determine the country’s leadership but also its trajectory toward economic recovery, political stability, and inclusive development. Jibrin’s call for unity and collaboration, exemplified by his vision of a Tinubu-Kwankwaso partnership, offers a pathway to navigate Nigeria’s complex political terrain. As the nation prepares for this pivotal moment, the focus must remain on addressing the aspirations of its people, particularly its youth, and building a future that balances regional interests with national progress.
