The African Democratic Congress (ADC), a rising political force in Nigeria, is facing a critical juncture as it seeks to build a formidable opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 general elections. However, the coalition’s momentum is being hampered by significant internal friction, with prominent political figures, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, reportedly delaying their formal membership in the party. The primary cause of this hesitation is a contentious disagreement over who will secure the ADC’s presidential ticket for the 2027 elections, a development that threatens to fracture the nascent alliance before it can fully coalesce.
According to sources close to the party, these tensions were a central focus of a recent stakeholders’ meeting attended by several political heavyweights, including Atiku Abubakar, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Minister of Communications Isa Ali Pantami, and former Ogun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola. Notably absent from the gathering were Peter Obi and former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, whose absence fueled speculation about their commitment to the coalition. Insiders revealed to NewsDirect that the coalition is grappling with deep structural and ideological challenges that could undermine its ambition to unite opposition forces against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
A Coalition in Crisis
The ADC, historically a smaller player in Nigeria’s political landscape, has emerged as a potential vehicle for opposition unity in the wake of the 2023 elections, which saw the ruling APC retain power despite strong challenges from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP). The ADC’s leadership, sensing an opportunity to consolidate fragmented opposition groups, has actively courted high-profile politicians to bolster its ranks. The inclusion of figures like Atiku, Obi, and others was intended to create a broad-based coalition capable of challenging the APC’s dominance in 2027. However, the current impasse over the presidential ticket reveals the complexities of uniting ambitious political actors with competing interests.
At the heart of the coalition’s troubles is the insistence by some party leaders, notably former Senate President David Mark, on a transparent and democratic process for selecting the ADC’s presidential candidate. Mark, a key figure in brokering the coalition, has emphasized the need for immediate membership registration and adherence to open primaries, a stance that has met resistance from some of the coalition’s biggest names. According to sources, Atiku and Obi, both of whom command significant national followings and have previously run for president, are wary of committing to the ADC without guarantees about their chances of securing the party’s nomination.
This hesitation underscores a fundamental tension within the coalition: the clash between the principles of internal democracy and the personal ambitions of its leading figures. While the ADC’s leadership seeks to establish a credible and transparent process to build long-term legitimacy, the reluctance of major players to fully commit suggests that private negotiations over the presidential ticket are taking precedence over party-building efforts. This dynamic, insiders warn, could jeopardize the coalition’s ability to present a united front against the APC in 2027.
The Stakes of the 2027 Presidential Ticket
The 2027 presidential election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s political history, with the opposition seeking to capitalize on public dissatisfaction with the APC’s governance. The ADC’s coalition was envisioned as a platform to harness the collective strength of opposition leaders, including those who have previously contested under other parties. Atiku, who ran as the PDP’s candidate in 2019 and 2023, and Obi, who contested under the Labour Party in 2023, bring significant political capital to the table. Their potential alignment with the ADC could reshape Nigeria’s political landscape, but only if the coalition can resolve its internal divisions.
The core issue lies in reconciling the ambitions of these influential figures, each of whom has a history of leading major political campaigns and enjoys substantial grassroots support. Atiku, a veteran politician with deep roots in the PDP, is seen as a dominant force within the ADC’s emerging structure, with sources estimating that he controls between 65 and 70 percent of the party’s organizational framework. This influence gives him significant leverage in negotiations, but it also creates unease among other coalition members who fear that his dominance could overshadow their own aspirations.
Peter Obi, on the other hand, has emerged as a formidable figure in Nigerian politics, particularly among younger voters and the South-East geopolitical zone, where his 2023 presidential campaign under the Labour Party galvanized a new generation of politically engaged citizens. Obi’s insistence on power shifting to the South for the sake of equity has resonated with many, but it has also complicated his potential partnership with Atiku, whose northern base and long-standing presidential ambitions make a joint ticket challenging. Obi has reportedly vowed to serve only one term if elected, a pledge aimed at reassuring northern stakeholders who are wary of prolonged southern leadership. However, he has also made it clear that he would not contest primaries against Atiku, particularly in Atiku’s home state of Adamawa, further complicating the prospects of an Atiku-Obi ticket.
Goodluck Jonathan’s Potential Role
Adding another layer of complexity to the coalition’s dynamics is the potential candidacy of former President Goodluck Jonathan, who served as Nigeria’s president from 2010 to 2015. Jonathan, who hails from the South-South region, is seen by some stakeholders as a compromise candidate who could bridge the divide between Atiku’s northern base and Obi’s southern support. The Nigerian Constitution permits Jonathan to run for one additional term, a factor that appeals to certain northern blocs seeking a candidate with limited tenure. However, Jonathan faces significant challenges, including a weakened support base in the South-East, where Obi has emerged as the dominant political figure, and skepticism about his ability to secure northern support.
In a closed-door meeting with David Mark, Jonathan was reportedly urged to formally register as an ADC member and participate in the party’s primaries if he wishes to secure the nomination. Mark emphasized that no candidate would be handed the ticket outside a transparent process, a stance that reflects the ADC’s commitment to internal democracy but also highlights the difficulties of accommodating high-profile figures accustomed to wielding significant influence. Sources indicate that Jonathan and Mark agreed to revisit the matter at a later date, suggesting that negotiations over his potential candidacy remain ongoing.
Jonathan’s prospects are further complicated by the shifting dynamics within the ADC. While his experience as a former president makes him a credible candidate, his traditional South-East base has largely gravitated toward Obi, whose populist appeal and grassroots mobilization have overshadowed Jonathan’s influence in the region. Additionally, Jonathan’s ability to win northern support remains uncertain, as Atiku’s dominance within the ADC’s structure gives him a significant advantage in securing the loyalty of northern stakeholders.
The Risks of Delay
The prolonged delay in formalizing membership by key figures like Atiku and Obi has raised concerns about the coalition’s long-term viability. Insiders warn that the focus on securing the presidential nomination, rather than strengthening the ADC’s organizational structure, could undermine the party’s ability to build a cohesive and competitive platform. “The fear is that joining the ADC without guaranteed backing could leave them stranded if they don’t win the primaries,” one source explained. This uncertainty has created a sense of unease within the coalition, with some stakeholders questioning whether the alliance can withstand the pressures of competing ambitions.
Atiku’s reported control over a significant portion of the ADC’s structure has further complicated efforts to assure other candidates of a level playing field. While his influence could help unify the party’s resources and mobilize support, it also raises concerns about the potential for a one-sided nomination process. For Obi and Jonathan, the lack of clarity about their prospects within the ADC has fueled hesitation, as both leaders weigh the risks of committing to a party where their chances of securing the ticket remain uncertain.
The speculation surrounding a possible Atiku-Obi ticket has added another layer of intrigue to the coalition’s dynamics. While such a pairing could unite Atiku’s northern base with Obi’s southern support, ideological and regional differences make it an unlikely prospect. Obi’s commitment to a southern presidency and his reluctance to contest against Atiku in the primaries suggest that any collaboration would require significant concessions from both sides. Meanwhile, Jonathan’s potential candidacy adds further complexity, as his entry could either bridge the divide or exacerbate tensions within the coalition.
Broader Implications for the Opposition
The challenges facing the ADC coalition reflect broader difficulties within Nigeria’s opposition landscape. The fragmentation of opposition forces has long been a barrier to challenging the APC’s dominance, and the ADC’s efforts to unite disparate groups represent a significant step toward addressing this issue. However, the current impasse over the presidential ticket highlights the difficulty of aligning ambitious leaders with competing visions for Nigeria’s future.
For the ADC to succeed, it must navigate the delicate balance between accommodating high-profile figures and maintaining a commitment to internal democracy. David Mark’s insistence on open primaries is a step toward establishing the party’s credibility, but it also risks alienating key stakeholders who are accustomed to more controlled nomination processes. The coalition’s ability to resolve these tensions will determine whether it can emerge as a viable alternative to the APC in 2027.
Beyond the internal dynamics of the ADC, the coalition’s struggles also reflect the broader challenges facing Nigeria’s political system. The country’s complex regional and ethnic dynamics, combined with the personal ambitions of its political leaders, create a challenging environment for building unified opposition movements. The ADC’s coalition, while ambitious in its scope, must contend with these realities as it seeks to position itself as a credible contender in the 2027 elections.
The Path Forward
As the ADC grapples with its internal challenges, the coming months will be critical in determining the coalition’s trajectory. The party’s leadership must find a way to balance the demands of its high-profile members with the need to establish a transparent and inclusive process for selecting its presidential candidate. Failure to do so could result in further delays, defections, or even the collapse of the coalition before it can fully take shape.
For Atiku, Obi, and Jonathan, the decision to formally join the ADC will depend on their confidence in the party’s ability to deliver a fair and competitive nomination process. Atiku’s influence within the party gives him a strong position, but his dominance could alienate other stakeholders and undermine the coalition’s unity. Obi, with his strong grassroots support, has the potential to galvanize the ADC’s base, but his insistence on a southern presidency may limit his appeal in certain regions. Jonathan, as a compromise candidate, could bridge the divide, but his weakened support base and uncertain northern backing make his path to the nomination challenging.
The absence of figures like Rotimi Amaechi from the recent stakeholders’ meeting also raises questions about the coalition’s inclusivity. Amaechi, a former governor and minister with significant political experience, could play a pivotal role in shaping the ADC’s direction, but his apparent reluctance to engage suggests that the coalition’s challenges extend beyond the Atiku-Obi-Jonathan dynamic.
Conclusion
The African Democratic Congress stands at a crossroads as it seeks to build a formidable opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 general elections. The hesitation of key figures like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi to formally join the party, coupled with disagreements over the presidential ticket, threatens to undermine the coalition’s ambitions. While David Mark’s insistence on internal democracy reflects a commitment to building a credible platform, it also highlights the difficulties of accommodating ambitious political heavyweights with competing agendas.
The ADC’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine whether it can emerge as a viable alternative to the ruling APC. For now, the coalition remains in a state of flux, with private negotiations and strategic calculations taking precedence over collective unity. As Nigeria’s political landscape continues to evolve, the ADC’s coalition represents both an opportunity and a challenge—a chance to reshape the opposition, but only if it can overcome the internal divisions that threaten to derail its progress.
