In a pointed and unflinching address that resonated with both historical insight and urgent pragmatism, His Royal Highness Muhammadu Sanusi II, the 16th Emir of Kano and a former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), issued a stark warning to the nation. Speaking at the Oxford Global Think Tank Leadership Conference in Abuja on Tuesday, October 28, Sanusi declared that President Bola Tinubu's ambitious economic reforms—particularly the removal of the fuel subsidy—will ultimately falter and fail to deliver tangible benefits to ordinary Nigerians unless accompanied by a radical, intentional overhaul to reduce the exorbitant cost of governance.
Sanusi, whose tenure at the helm of the CBN from 2009 to 2014 was marked by bold monetary policies and outspoken critiques of fiscal mismanagement, began his remarks by applauding President Tinubu's resolve. The decision to eliminate the long-standing fuel subsidy, a policy that had drained billions from public coffers while disproportionately benefiting a narrow elite, was described by the Emir as an act of political courage. "I commend the President for having the guts to remove the subsidy," Sanusi stated, acknowledging the immediate hardships it has imposed on millions of citizens through soaring fuel prices and inflationary pressures. Yet, this praise was tempered with profound apprehension. The Emir expressed grave concern over the allocation of the windfall revenues generated from the subsidy's removal, questioning whether these funds are being channeled effectively to alleviate public suffering or merely perpetuating a cycle of waste.
Delving deeper into Nigeria's economic woes, Sanusi provided a incisive, data-driven analysis that traced the country's challenges back to decades of ignored expert counsel and political expediency. He positioned the current crisis within a broader historical context, arguing that Nigeria's predicament is not merely a product of recent decisions but a cumulative failure to heed sound economic advice at critical junctures. "Many of the problems we face today are because we did not listen to advice in the past," he lamented, drawing parallels to missed opportunities that have compounded the nation's vulnerabilities.
A pivotal moment in his discourse was the recollection of the 2012 fuel subsidy removal attempt under President Goodluck Jonathan's administration. That effort, which aimed to redirect subsidies toward infrastructure and social programs, was derailed by widespread protests orchestrated by opposition leaders—including figures who would later assume power. Sanusi vividly recounted how those very protesters, upon inheriting the same fiscal burden years later, found themselves confronting an even more intractable problem. "If Nigeria had allowed the Jonathan government to remove the subsidy in 2012, the pain would have been a very tiny fraction of what we’re facing today," he asserted with conviction.
To underscore his point, the Emir shared specific projections from his time as CBN Governor. Under his leadership, the bank had modeled the economic fallout of subsidy removal and concluded that the inflationary spike would be manageable and short-lived. "I stood up and put my credit card on the line and said, remove the subsidy today, inflation moves up from 11% to 13%, I will bring it down in a year," Sanusi revealed. He emphasized that such a move in 2012 would have averted the hyperinflationary spiral now gripping the economy, where rates have surged to over 30%. "We would not have had 30-something per cent inflation," he added, painting a picture of an alternate reality where proactive action could have stabilized prices and preserved purchasing power for the average Nigerian.
Sanusi did not shy away from defending the measures implemented during his CBN stewardship, which he credited with staving off economic catastrophe. He noted that Nigeria teetered on the edge of hyperinflation and currency collapse akin to Zimbabwe's infamous meltdown in the late 2000s. Through stringent monetary controls and interventions, his team prevented a "runaway devaluation" that could have spiraled out of control. This historical intervention, he argued, bought the country time but highlighted the perils of delay.
Turning to the present, the Emir addressed the Naira's depreciation, a sore point for many Nigerians amid exchange rates hovering around N1,400 to the US dollar. Rather than decrying the figure outright, Sanusi advocated for stability over illusionary fixes. "Yes, we are at N1,400 to the dollar, but it’s better to know it will be N1,400 for six months than to think it’s N1,400 today and N2,000 tomorrow," he explained. This preference for predictable exchange rates, he contended, fosters investor confidence and economic planning, contrasting it with the volatility of artificial pegs that mask underlying imbalances.
At the heart of Sanusi's critique lay an indictment of Nigeria's bloated governance apparatus, which he identified as the unchecked cancer eroding reform gains. The increased revenues from subsidy removal, intended to fund palliative measures, infrastructure, and debt servicing, are being squandered on extravagant public expenditures. "The real problem is the cost of governance," he thundered, posing rhetorical questions that cut to the core of fiscal irresponsibility: "Why do we need 48 ministers, long convoys, endless travels?"
Expanding on this, Sanusi painted a vivid portrait of systemic excess. Nigeria's cabinet, one of the largest in the world, includes 48 ministers—a number that dwarfs those of more efficient governments in comparable economies. These positions come with sprawling bureaucracies, luxurious perks, and security details featuring lengthy motorcades that clog roads and symbolize detachment from public hardship. International junkets, often justified under the guise of diplomacy or investment promotion, drain foreign exchange reserves while yielding questionable returns. The Emir's call for drastic cuts echoes long-standing recommendations from economists and international bodies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which have repeatedly urged Nigeria to streamline its public sector to free up resources for productive investments.
Sanusi's warnings carry particular weight given his dual perspective as a traditional ruler and a technocrat with insider knowledge of policymaking. His ousting from the CBN in 2014 amid controversies over alleged financial leaks underscored his willingness to challenge powerful interests. Now, from the throne of Kano—one of Nigeria's most influential emirates—he continues to advocate for accountability, blending cultural authority with economic acumen.
The implications of ignoring his advice are dire. Without curbing governance costs, the subsidy removal's short-term pains—evident in transport fares tripling, food prices skyrocketing, and small businesses folding—will morph into long-term stagnation. Revenues that could build hospitals, schools, or refineries to end fuel imports will instead fund opulent lifestyles for the political class. This, Sanusi implied, perpetuates inequality, fuels corruption, and erodes public trust in government.
In essence, the Emir's message was a blueprint for sustainable reform: pair bold deregulation with ruthless efficiency. President Tinubu's administration, having taken the politically risky step of subsidy removal, must now demonstrate equal fortitude in downsizing government. Reducing ministerial portfolios to a leaner, merit-based structure; enforcing austerity on official travels and convoys; and redirecting savings to targeted subsidies for the vulnerable could transform the reform narrative from one of endurance to empowerment.
As Nigeria navigates this pivotal economic juncture, Sanusi's voice serves as a clarion call. History, he reminded his audience, judges leaders not by the problems they inherit but by the decisiveness with which they resolve them. Failing to act on governance costs risks squandering a hard-won opportunity, dooming the nation to repeat the cycles of protest, reversal, and regret that defined 2012. For a country rich in resources yet plagued by poverty, the path forward demands not just courage in initiation but consistency in execution. Only then can the gains of reform trickle down to the millions who bear its brunt today.
