Vancouver, British Columbia – October 15, 2025 – In a stark blow to bilateral trade relations, the United States implemented a sweeping 10% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber imports on Tuesday, layering it atop an existing 35% duty and pushing the effective rate to over 45%. The move, announced last month by President Donald Trump under the guise of national security concerns, has ignited fury in Canada's forestry-dependent provinces, particularly British Columbia, where the industry forms the economic backbone of rural communities. Premier David Eby, flanked by union leaders, industry executives, and First Nations representatives, decried the levy as an "existential threat" during a fiery press conference in Burnaby, demanding immediate federal intervention to shield workers from what he called an "unfair and unjustified attack" from America's southern border.
The tariffs extend beyond raw lumber, slapping a 25% duty on finished wood products such as kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and upholstered furniture, with rates set to climb further in January 2026. This escalation comes amid a decades-long softwood lumber dispute, rooted in U.S. claims that Canadian provincial governments subsidize timber harvesting through below-market stumpage fees on public lands. The U.S. Department of Commerce's ongoing administrative reviews have steadily ratcheted up duties—from 14.54% in early 2025 to the current 35% baseline—compounding the pain from Trump's broader trade war. For British Columbia, the epicenter of Canada's softwood exports, the timing couldn't be worse: lumber prices have plummeted to historic lows amid a U.S. housing slowdown, wildfires have ravaged supply chains, and the mountain pine beetle infestation continues to decimate stands of mature timber.
British Columbia's forestry sector exported an estimated CAN$5.6 billion (US$3.9 billion) worth of wood products to the U.S. in 2024, alongside CAN$1.05 billion in pulp and paper, according to provincial data. The industry sustains approximately 100,000 direct, indirect, and induced jobs in the softwood lumber value chain alone, per the BC Lumber Trade Council—a figure that balloons when factoring in logging, trucking, equipment manufacturing, and ancillary services. In resource towns like Grand Forks, Prince George, and Vanderhoof, entire economies orbit the mills; a single closure can ripple through schools, hospitals, and local retailers, exacerbating out-migration and social strains already heightened by the opioid crisis and Indigenous community challenges.
Eby's rhetoric was unsparing. "Our friends south of the border, with whom we have worked side by side, fought side by side—that we have worse market access than Russia, an international pariah who has launched a war of aggression on Ukraine," he thundered, highlighting the irony that U.S. tariffs on Canadian lumber now exceed those on Russian imports. Joined by United Steelworkers District 3 Director Scott Lunny, Unifor Western Regional Director Gavin McGarrigle, and B.C. Forests Minister Ravi Parmar, Eby invoked parallels to federal responses in other sectors. "When auto parts makers, when steelworkers in Ontario, when their jobs are threatened, it’s treated as an emergency, and rightly so," he said. "What we’re asking for today is that that same respect, that same concern, that same sense of emergency is shared for the forest sector in this country."
The plea echoes a joint letter Eby sent to Prime Minister Mark Carney on October 10, warning that "punitive and unfair tariffs and duties, coupled with historic lows for the price of lumber and the cratering U.S. demand for housing products, have put many forest companies on a razor’s edge of survival." Eby called for enhanced unemployment benefits, retraining programs, and direct financial lifelines—measures akin to the CAN$1.2 billion aid package Carney unveiled in August for lumber producers, though industry voices like B.C. Council of Forest Industries President Kim Haakstad lament that funds have yet to materialize in meaningful ways. "We can't wait. Our forest sector here in Canada is on the line," Parmar echoed, urging Ottawa to expedite disbursements.
This crisis unfolds against the backdrop of Carney's high-stakes diplomacy. Last week, on October 7, the former Bank of England governor traveled to Washington for a second Oval Office summit with Trump, aiming to thaw the frosty trade impasse that has defined their administrations. The meeting, billed as a "meeting of the minds," yielded no immediate concessions on forestry tariffs but sparked cautious optimism. Trump, ever the showman, quipped to reporters that Canada would "walk away very happy," while praising Carney as a "nice man" who could be "very nasty" in negotiations. Carney, in turn, touted ongoing talks on steel, aluminum, and energy sectors, insisting Canada already holds "the best deal with the Americans" and would secure an "even better" one soon.
Yet, the forestry file remains conspicuously absent from federal spotlights. Industry Minister Melanie Joly has touted progress in auto and metals negotiations, but Eby lambasted the omission, saying, "When I see Minister Joly say we’re talking about steel, we’re talking about energy, and she doesn’t include forestry in that list, it tells me that we’ve got to be more in the face of the federal government. They don’t get it yet." New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt echoed the frustration in her own missive to Carney, noting that in her province, "one in every 11 workers depends directly on forest products," with mill closures poised to slash revenues and strain services. A coalition of 16 B.C.-based groups, including unions and First Nations, issued a unified statement decrying the tariffs as "unwarranted and unjustified," warning of "devastating impacts" without swift action.
Economists and analysts paint a dire picture of the tariffs' ripple effects. Russ Taylor, a veteran forestry consultant, predicts accelerated mill curtailments and permanent shutdowns, with smaller operators—already battered by 2024's 20% output drop—facing extinction. A Resource Works report warns that a major sector contraction could erode rural infrastructure, from road maintenance to emergency services, while amplifying social vulnerabilities in Indigenous communities that derive up to 40% of revenues from forestry tenures. On the U.S. side, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has decried the levies for inflating construction costs—lumber accounts for 15-20% of a new home's price tag—potentially adding US$9,000 to the average build and exacerbating America's housing shortage. Ironically, the U.S. Lumber Coalition cheered the tariffs as a bulwark against "foreign unfair trade practices," alleging Canada's August aid package constitutes an illicit subsidy.
The dispute's history underscores its intractability. Softwood skirmishes date to the 1980s, cycling through NAFTA panels and WTO challenges, with the USMCA offering scant relief. Trump's Section 232 invocation—framing lumber as a "national security threat"—marks a novel escalation, bypassing traditional trade remedies. Critics, including the Forest Products Association of Canada, argue it distorts markets, threatens cross-border jobs (over 2.4 million tied to integrated supply chains), and ignores mutual vulnerabilities like U.S. dependence on Canadian energy exports.
In response, British Columbia is pivoting to diversification. The province's Buy BC initiative promotes exports to Japan, China, and Europe, where demand for sustainable timber surges amid green building booms. Eby announced a targeted U.S. ad campaign highlighting the "absurdity" of penalizing allied lumber over Russian alternatives, while deferring stumpage payments to ease cash flow. Federally, Carney's administration has scrapped retaliatory digital services taxes and pledged private-sector investments south of the border to sweeten negotiations. Yet opposition voices, like Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, slam Carney's "concessions" as weakness, urging a harder line: "We got to hit him back hard and never stop."
As winter looms, the human toll mounts. In Williams Lake, logger Maria Gonzalez, a single mother of two, told reporters her mill idled shifts last month, slashing her hours by 30%. "We've bled jobs for years—beetles, fires, now this. How much more can we take?" she asked. Across the border, U.S. builders like California's Stetson Patel bemoan sticker-shock supply chains, with one Bay Area firm hiking home prices 5% to offset lumber hikes.
Analysts foresee no quick resolution. With Commerce Department reviews slated for late 2025 and Trump's term winding down, a bilateral softwood accord—last negotiated in 2017—seems distant. Harry Nelson, a University of British Columbia forestry economist, cautions that while tariffs may buoy U.S. mills short-term, they won't spur long-term domestic investment; American forests can't match Canada's scale or sustainability certifications. "This is less about security than politics—protectionism dressed as patriotism," Nelson said.
For now, Eby's coalition vows a "Team Canada" fightback, blending legal challenges at the WTO with domestic resilience-building. "To every forestry worker in British Columbia hearing the news... know this: We have got your back," Eby affirmed. As negotiations simmer, the forests whisper a warning: Untamed trade wars risk felling more than trees—they could uproot the fragile trust binding two nations' futures.
