BRUSSELS, December 5, 2025 – In a stark intervention amid escalating transatlantic tensions over Ukraine's future, Euroclear CEO Valérie Urbain issued a dire warning Friday about the perils of harnessing frozen Russian assets to fund Kyiv's war effort, cautioning that such moves could trigger the Belgian financial giant's bankruptcy and ripple chaos through global markets. Speaking to Belgian broadcaster VRT, Urbain—whose Brussels-based firm safeguards €193 billion ($225 billion) in immobilized Russian Central Bank holdings, roughly two-thirds of the West's total—urged EU leaders to repurpose the funds as leverage in peace talks rather than entangling them in a "complex and risky legal structure." These assets, equivalent to 10-15% of Russia's GDP, have become the linchpin of a heated EU debate, with the bloc eyeing €90 billion ($105 billion) in loans to cover two-thirds of Ukraine's projected €137 billion ($160 billion) financing gap for 2026-2027, as estimated by the International Monetary Fund.
Urbain's remarks, delivered as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz scrapped a scheduled visit to Oslo for emergency Brussels talks with Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, underscore the high-stakes brinkmanship gripping Europe's corridors of power. "Given Euroclear's central role in the financial system and its size, any threat to our survival would not only impact our company but could also affect the attractiveness of the European market and the stability of the global financial system," she declared, painting a scenario where lifted sanctions prompt Moscow to reclaim its funds—only to find them disbursed, leaving the firm insolvent and investors fleeing eurozone bonds. The CEO, who assumed leadership in May 2024 after three decades at the institution, has previously signaled readiness to sue the EU over outright confiscation, a step she reiterated as "not out of the question" to preserve Euroclear's "credibility and trust."
Euroclear, often dubbed the "bankers' bank," processes €46 trillion in securities annually, settling trades for institutions worldwide and underpinning the euro's status as a safe-haven currency. Its vulnerability amplifies the stakes: Urbain flagged potential Russian reprisals extending beyond clients to "all Belgian assets in Russia," including €16 billion in Euroclear's own holdings there, plus unrelated firms like bpost or AB InBev. Moscow has already telegraphed threats, with Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev branding the scheme "theft tantamount to war" and vowing "eternal retaliation." De Wever echoed this Friday, recounting Kremlin warnings that Belgium—and he personally—would "feel it for eternity," a chilling reminder of how hybrid economic warfare could ensnare neutral corporates.
The controversy stems from the European Commission's December 3 proposal for a "reparations loan," where Ukraine borrows against the assets' cash value—held mostly at Euroclear—repayable only if Russia foots war damages post-conflict. Von der Leyen framed it as a "decisive step" to sustain Kyiv's defense and basic services amid U.S. retrenchment under President Donald Trump, who has halted new aid and floated joint U.S.-Russian investment vehicles from the pot. The plan includes safeguards like a "solidarity mechanism" for shared risks and coverage of other holders in France, Germany, and Sweden, but De Wever dismissed it as insufficient, insisting it exposes Belgium to "irresponsible risks" equivalent to a year's federal budget.
Belgium's resistance, led by the Flemish nationalist De Wever since his coalition's October 2024 victory, has torpedoed prior iterations. In a November 28 letter to von der Leyen, he labeled the scheme "fundamentally wrong," arguing it violates international law—unprecedented even in World War II—and could derail peace by squandering negotiation leverage. "Who really believes Russia will lose? It's a fairy tale... even undesirable, lest nuclear instability engulf us," he told La Libre, a stance that drew ire from Kyiv allies but aligns with Belgian fiscal conservatism. Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot amplified this at a NATO summit, decrying the loan as "the worst option" and pushing for market borrowing backed by the EU's €1.2 trillion multiannual budget.
Merz's intervention—his second Brussels detour this month—signals Berlin's frustration, having reversed Germany's long-held opposition in September to champion a €140 billion interest-free weapons-only loan. "We must together shoulder all financial risks," he wrote in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, vowing to forge a "common position" before the December 18-19 European Council summit. Yet De Wever remains unmoved, telling parliament Thursday the commission's text falls short and likening unmitigated exposure to a "plane crash" with catastrophic fallout. Only Germany has pledged risk-sharing thus far; without unanimity—or qualified majority tweaks—the fallback risks Hungary's veto on alternative borrowing.
The impasse arrives at a precarious juncture. Ukraine's coffers could dry up by April 2026 without fresh infusions, as U.S. support—once 60% of totals—evaporates under Trump's "America First" pivot, including a 28-point peace blueprint sidelining Europe. Profits from the assets have already yielded €4 billion in 2024 for a G7-backed €45 billion loan, but scaling to principal risks "systemic" eurozone damage, per the European Central Bank, and 50 years of Russian lawsuits. Analysts at Carnegie warn of a "dangerous precedent," potentially eroding investor confidence amid Europe's €800 billion green-digital transition needs.
Supporters, including France's Emmanuel Macron—who reportedly cautioned Zelenskyy of U.S. "betrayal" in a leaked call—insist the loan bolsters Kyiv's "position of strength" for talks, with von der Leyen touting it as non-confiscatory. Yet as Merz, De Wever, and von der Leyen convene over dinner—described by Berlin as "deciding Europe's future" against "imperialist Russia"—the specter of fragmentation looms. Failure could force a scaled-back €45 billion package, straining budgets and emboldening Moscow, while success might redefine sanctions enforcement. Urbain's plea—to wield the assets as "bargaining chips" for peace—hangs in the balance, a reminder that in hybrid warfare, financial fortresses can crumble as swiftly as frontlines.
