Mexico City, Mexico – In a nail-biting presidential contest that has gripped Central America, conservative National Party candidate Nasry "Tito" Asfura edged ahead of centrist Liberal Party rival Salvador Nasralla on Thursday, with over 86% of ballots tallied amid repeated system outages and escalating accusations of electoral manipulation. The razor-thin margin – Asfura at 1,114,604 votes (40.25%) to Nasralla's 1,090,641 (39.39%) – has plunged Honduras into a fresh crisis of confidence, evoking memories of the fraud-plagued 2013 race that propelled former President Juan Orlando Hernández to power, only for him to be convicted in the U.S. on drug trafficking charges and recently pardoned by President Donald Trump. As the impoverished nation of 10.4 million awaits a final certification expected by week's end, international observers and domestic watchdogs warn that unresolved disputes could ignite protests and further erode trust in institutions already battered by corruption scandals and economic woes.
File Photo by Emilio Flores - Presidential candidate for the National Party of Honduras Nasry Asfura cast his vote at the UP (Pedagogical University of Honduras on November 30, 2025 in Tegucigalpa, Honduras
The drama unfolded against a backdrop of technical glitches that have plagued the vote count since Sunday's polls closed. Honduras' National Electoral Council (CNE) reported that its online portal – managed by Colombian firm Grupo ASD – crashed for a second time early Thursday, briefly halting updates and fueling Nasralla's explosive claims of tampering. "The screen went blank at 3:24 a.m., and when it returned, the votes were swapped: my 1,081,000 became Asfura's, and his 1,073,000 became mine," Nasralla posted on X, amassing over 45,000 likes and shares within hours. He demanded an immediate probe into ASD, accusing the company of algorithmic interference akin to the "irregularities" that marred the 2013 election, where Hernández's victory was widely contested and later linked to his narco-alliances.
CNE President Ana Paola Hall, addressing a tense press conference in Tegucigalpa, attributed the outage to "overloaded servers" from high traffic but conceded that 17% of tally sheets – about 1,200 from rural precincts – exhibit "inconsistencies" requiring manual review. "We urge patience; this is not 2013," Hall stated, referencing the OAS-brokered audit that exposed ballot stuffing under Hernández's watch. Yet, with polls showing Nasralla leading by up to 5 points pre-election – buoyed by urban youth and anti-corruption fervor – his early advantage evaporated as returns from National Party bastions like Lempira, Intibucá, and Olancho trickled in. National Party Congress leader Tomás Zambrano crowed on local radio: "We called it days ago – the rural heartland speaks, and Tito leads."
Asfura, the 67-year-old former Tegucigalpa mayor and construction magnate whose slogan "Grandpa, at your service!" resonated with older voters, struck a triumphant yet conciliatory tone at his campaign headquarters. "This is the people's mandate for stability, jobs, and security," he told supporters, flanked by party elders. His platform – heavy on U.S.-aligned anti-gang measures, infrastructure via public-private partnerships, and resuming ties with Taiwan – contrasts Nasralla's outsider appeal as a TV host turned reformer, promising judicial purges and economic equity. Third-place finisher Rixi Moncada of the ruling leftist LIBRE Party – wife of ex-President Manuel Zelaya – garnered 19.09%, a sharp drop from her 2021 showing, signaling voter fatigue with President Xiomara Castro's administration amid soaring inflation (12.5% year-over-year) and migration spikes.
The race's volatility traces to November 30 voting day, when initial tallies from urban centers gave Asfura a slim edge (41% to 39%) with 34% counted, only for a "technical tie" declaration after 56% as northern industrial votes – Nasralla's turf – poured in. By Tuesday, Nasralla surged to 40.13%-39.71% at 68% tallied, prompting Trump's incendiary X post: "If results change from here, there will be hell to pay – fraud like 2020!" The outburst, viewed 2.3 million times, drew rebukes from Zelaya, who labeled it "imperial meddling" echoing U.S. interventions in 2009's coup. European Union and OAS observers, deploying 150 monitors, reported "no systemic fraud" but flagged "logistical delays" in 20% of precincts, urging hand-counts to resolve discrepancies.
Trump's shadow looms large, having endorsed Asfura on November 26 via Truth Social: "Tito and I can fight narcocommunists – vote Freedom!" The nod, paired with threats to slash $193 million in annual U.S. aid if Asfura lost, amplified accusations of interference, especially after Trump's December 1 pardon of Hernández – Asfura's party predecessor – convicted in March 2024 for funneling 400+ tons of cocaine stateside via bribes and military protection. "A full pardon for JOH, treated harshly by Biden's witch hunt," Trump posted, freeing Hernández from a West Virginia prison after a 45-year sentence and $8 million fine. Democrats like Rep. Norma Torres decried it as "hypocrisy" undermining anti-cartel efforts, while Hernández's lawyer hailed it as justice against "lawfare."
On X, fury boiled over: Nasralla's fraud thread garnered 12,000 replies, with users demanding probes into "billionaire smart cities" tied to Asfura backers. Supporters clashed in Tegucigalpa streets, hurling rocks and setting tires ablaze near CNE offices, met by riot police tear gas – the first violence since 2017's post-election unrest that killed 22. "This is 2013 redux – JOH's ghost steals another vote," tweeted users, referencing Polymarket odds swinging Asfura to 93% favorite amid $1 million whale bets.
Honduras' stakes are dire: The victor inherits a nation reeling from 2024's dual hurricanes (displacing 500,000), 35% poverty, and remittances – 27% of GDP – vulnerable to U.S. policy shifts. Asfura pledges Trump-pacted extraditions and Taiwan trade revival, severed in 2023 for Beijing; Nasralla eyes EU green funds and anti-corruption courts. LIBRE's Moncada, eyeing alliances, blasted "Yankee bullying" but conceded her third-place finish hampers leverage.
As the CNE reconvenes Friday for audits, experts warn Trump's "hell to pay" rhetoric risks a legitimacy crisis, potentially spiking migration – already 250,000 northward in 2025. With 14% of votes pending – largely from remote departments – the final hours could crown a leader or crown chaos. In this cauldron of history and hubris, Honduras' ballot box echoes louder than ever: Will the people's voice prevail, or will shadows from Washington and Tegucigalpa's past prevail?
