The announcement came via an official letter dated November 30, 2025, from Nigeria's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, addressed to Omar Alieu Touray, President of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission. In the correspondence, Tuggar informed Touray that Tinubu had “graciously approved the provision of protection and security in the premises of the Nigerian Embassy in the Republic of Guinea-Bissau, for Mr. Fernando Dias da Costa.” The letter emphasized that this was a “proactive measure to ensure the safety of Mr. da Costa in response to imminent threats to his life,” and requested that the ECOWAS Stabilization Support Mission in Guinea-Bissau (ESSMGB) extend additional security to the embassy grounds.
Alkasim Abdulkadir, Tuggar’s Special Assistant on Media and Communications Strategy, confirmed the letter’s authenticity in statements to multiple outlets, framing the asylum as a sovereign act aligned with Nigeria’s “longstanding commitment to regional peace, stability, and democratic governance.” “Acting in the broader interest of de-escalation, Nigeria exercised its lawful discretion to prevent further deterioration of tensions and to promote social cohesion in Guinea-Bissau and the wider West African sub-region,” Abdulkadir added. He stressed that the intervention was “guided solely by the imperatives of peace, human security, and regional stability, in line with ECOWAS principles and Nigeria’s historic role as a stabilising force in West Africa.”
Mr. da Costa, a prominent figure in Guinea-Bissau’s fractious political landscape, emerged as the primary challenger to incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló in the December 23, 2025, presidential election—Guinea-Bissau’s first since the 2022 polls that saw Embaló narrowly returned to power amid widespread allegations of irregularities. Representing a coalition of opposition parties, da Costa campaigned on promises of economic reform, anti-corruption measures, and bolstering the country’s cashew-dependent economy, which accounts for over 90% of exports but has left the nation mired in poverty, with GDP per capita hovering around $800. Early indicators suggested da Costa was leading, prompting fears among Embaló’s allies of an impending defeat.
The crisis erupted on November 27, 2025, when military officers, styling themselves as the “High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order,” stormed the presidential palace in Bissau, declaring they had deposed Embaló and suspended all electoral activities, borders, and media operations. Hours before the provisional results were due, the junta imposed a nationwide curfew and announced a one-year transitional government, citing “irregularities and threats to national security” as justification. Embaló, who survived the initial assault and fled to neighboring Senegal, dismissed the events as a “sham” orchestrated by his rivals to halt the vote count. Opposition coalitions backing da Costa echoed this, labeling the takeover a “last-minute bid” by Embaló’s camp to cling to power, especially as da Costa had publicly claimed victory based on partial tallies.
Guinea-Bissau’s history of political instability amplifies the stakes. Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, the nation has endured four successful coups and numerous attempts, including a 2022 assassination plot against Embaló that killed several guards. Drug trafficking through its archipelago has fueled corruption and weakened institutions, with the UN Office on Drugs and Crime estimating Guinea-Bissau as a key transit point for cocaine from South America to Europe. The latest upheaval has sparked street protests in Bissau, where hundreds—mostly youth—demanded the release of detained opposition figures and the publication of results, only for the junta to ban demonstrations and strikes ahead of an ECOWAS delegation’s arrival on December 1.
Nigeria’s response has been multifaceted. On November 28, Abuja issued a statement expressing “profound dismay and deep concern” over the “unconstitutional change,” vowing to hold perpetrators accountable and warning of chaos if democracy is not restored. Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, who was in Bissau as an ECOWAS election observer, briefed Tinubu on the ground realities, describing the events not as a full coup but a “distraction” from the electoral process. Jonathan, who returned safely to Nigeria, urged the electoral commission to declare the winner without delay.
Regionally, ECOWAS convened an emergency virtual summit, suspending Guinea-Bissau from all decision-making bodies until constitutional order is reinstated—a measure it has imposed on coup-prone states like Mali and Niger in recent years. The African Union (AU) followed suit, invoking its “zero tolerance” policy on unconstitutional changes and suspending Bissau’s participation in AU activities. A high-level ECOWAS mediation team, comprising the presidents of Senegal, Togo, and Cape Verde alongside Touray, arrived in Bissau on Monday to press the junta for a swift return to civilian rule and the release of election results. ECOWAS has hinted at targeted sanctions against those obstructing the democratic process, echoing its tough stance that reversed coups in The Gambia (2017) and Sierra Leone (1998).
The asylum grant to da Costa has drawn praise from analysts for its humanitarian and stabilizing intent. Dr. Ayo Wheto, a West African security expert at the Lagos-based Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, described it as “a masterstroke of preventive diplomacy.” “By sheltering da Costa, Nigeria not only upholds the right to life but signals to the junta that ECOWAS will not tolerate violence against electoral stakeholders,” Wheto told reporters. It also recalls Nigeria’s historical interventions, such as hosting Gambian opposition leader Adama Barrow in 2017 during a constitutional standoff.
Yet, questions linger about the junta’s next moves. Military leaders have ordered public institutions to reopen and borders to resume operations, but reports of sporadic clashes persist, with human rights groups documenting at least five deaths since November 27. Da Costa, speaking briefly from the embassy via a supporter’s phone, reiterated his call for the electoral process to continue: “What happened was a sham. We demand the commission declare the winner.” Embaló, from exile in Dakar, has mobilized loyalists, raising fears of a proxy conflict.
As ECOWAS’ December 7 deadline for restoration looms, Nigeria’s asylum offer could prove a turning point. With over 2 million Guinea-Bissauans at risk of displacement—exacerbating a refugee crisis already straining Senegal and Guinea—Abuja’s actions highlight the fragile thread of democracy in a region scarred by 200 coups since 1960. Observers warn that failure to resolve this could embolden juntas elsewhere, from Burkina Faso to Chad, undermining ECOWAS’ anti-coup architecture.
Nigeria’s Foreign Ministry reaffirmed its support for a “peaceful, inclusive” resolution, pledging collaboration with partners. As da Costa remains under embassy guard, his fate—and Guinea-Bissau’s—hangs in the balance, a stark reminder of the human cost of power struggles in Africa’s underbelly.
