The recent policy by the All Progressives Congress (APC) to deny automatic tickets to elected office holders seeking re-election has sparked intense debate across Nigeria's political landscape. This stance, reaffirmed by top party leaders in mid-January 2026, emphasizes that all aspirants—including governors who recently defected to the party—must participate in competitive primaries to earn their nominations. While presented as a commitment to internal democracy, the decision has raised suspicions of ulterior motives, particularly in volatile states like Rivers, where Governor Siminalayi Fubara appears to be a focal point of concern.
The APC's position was clearly articulated by senior figures, including members of the National Working Committee. They stressed that even President Bola Tinubu would not receive an automatic ticket for any potential future contest, despite widespread support from party organs. This principle extends uniformly to governors, regardless of tenure or recency of joining the party. Affected individuals include recent defectors such as Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom, Agbu Kefas of Taraba, and notably Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State. Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, whose defection has been widely anticipated, would face similar requirements if he formally joins.
This policy emerges against a backdrop of significant political realignments. Several governors from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have crossed over to the APC in recent months, including Fubara in December 2025. His move followed prolonged turmoil in Rivers State, marked by a bitter feud with his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory. Fubara's defection was framed as a strategic step toward political stability and alignment with the federal government, enabling him to access central support amid ongoing challenges, including impeachment threats and legislative standoffs.
Prof. Anthony Ikila, Director of the Commonwealth Institute of Advanced and Professional Studies, offered a critical perspective during a television interview on Wednesday. He argued that the APC's no-automatic-ticket rule transcends mere party reform and carries deeper strategic calculations. In politically charged environments like Rivers, Ikila suggested the policy might serve as a tool to navigate complex power dynamics. Fubara's vulnerability stems from his rivalry with a prominent figure—widely understood as Wike—who holds multiple influential roles: a serving minister, a key player in national politics, and a force within the broader political ecosystem.
Ikila described this rival as a "very rare essence in the atomic table," highlighting the unusual challenge of accommodating such a multifaceted actor while managing internal tensions. The APC leadership, he posited, faces the dilemma of balancing retention of high-value influencers against quelling factional disputes. By enforcing primaries, the party could ostensibly promote fairness, yet Ikila warned it risks becoming a mechanism to enforce loyalty, dilute opposition blocs, and prevent any group from amassing unchecked power.
He explicitly suggested Fubara could be a primary target. "It is possible this is targeted at Fubara because Fubara has an opponent, a man who is a Minister, a leader of opposition, a leader of government in power," Ikila stated. The party, he added, might be "playing different games to assuage this kind of side," attempting to "eat their cake and have it." This implies a calculated effort to placate powerful stakeholders while appearing democratic, even if it means sidelining figures like Fubara.
The broader context in Rivers State amplifies these concerns. Since assuming office in 2023, Fubara has navigated a stormy relationship with Wike, involving allegations of godfatherism, control over state structures, and repeated impeachment attempts by lawmakers aligned with Wike. Fubara's shift to the APC was seen by some as a bid for protection under President Tinubu's umbrella, especially after crises that included a state of emergency declaration and Supreme Court interventions. However, the feud persists, with recent developments including fresh impeachment notices, budget presentation blocks, and public barbs.
Wike has openly opposed Fubara's re-election, vowing it would politically "kill" him and accusing his successor of ingratitude and broken agreements. Meanwhile, APC national figures have oscillated in their stance, with some initially endorsing Fubara as state party leader, only for tensions to resurface amid Wike's influence. Reconciliation efforts, such as those by the Pan Niger Delta Elders Forum (PANDEF), have involved meetings with both parties, signaling attempts to de-escalate, but underlying rivalries remain.
Ikila cautioned that such policies, while potentially useful for party discipline, could erode trust and internal democracy. "It is bad," he remarked, noting the risk of perceptions that the rule unfairly targets certain individuals while shielding others. He emphasized that blanket application might mask favoritism, fostering divisions rather than unity.
This development reflects wider trends in Nigerian politics, where defections often hinge on promises of protection and advancement, yet rarely guarantee smooth integration. The APC's insistence on primaries aligns with its stated commitment to merit-based processes, as seen in denials of automatic tickets for other defectors and even national figures. Yet in Rivers, the policy intersects with a personal and factional battle that predates Fubara's APC membership.
Critics argue it could discourage future defections by signaling limited rewards, while supporters view it as strengthening party cohesion ahead of 2027 elections. For Fubara, the stakes are high: succeeding in open primaries amid opposition from Wike's camp would require mobilizing grassroots support, leveraging federal ties, and navigating Rivers' complex ethnic and political terrain.
Ultimately, the APC's approach tests its ability to manage internal contradictions in a state pivotal to national politics due to its oil wealth and electoral significance. Whether the policy genuinely promotes democracy or serves as a subtle instrument of control remains a subject of intense scrutiny. As Ikila observed, attempts to "have it both ways" risk deepening distrust and complicating governance in already fragile regions.
The Rivers saga underscores a fundamental challenge in Nigerian party politics: balancing loyalty, influence, and fairness in a system where personal alliances often overshadow institutional rules. As the 2027 horizon approaches, the true impact of this policy—on Fubara, Rivers, and the APC's cohesion—will become clearer through primaries and evolving alliances.
