Estonia's Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna has issued a stark warning that NATO would respond to any Russian invasion of the Baltic states with devastating strikes "deep inside Russia," emphasizing the alliance's readiness to bring the fight beyond defensive borders. The comments underscore heightened deterrence messaging from NATO's eastern flank amid ongoing concerns over Russian aggression following its war in Ukraine.
In an exclusive interview with The Telegraph published on Monday, February 16, 2026, Tsahkna dismissed suggestions that Moscow could achieve a swift land grab in Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. Speaking on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, he asserted that the Baltic nations would mount strong initial resistance, followed by a forceful NATO counteroffensive extending far into Russian territory.
“We’ll bring the war to Russia and we’ll have deep strikes very far into Russia. We know exactly what to do,” Tsahkna stated. He described NATO's posture as resolute, rejecting portrayals of the Baltic region as inherently vulnerable due to its geography and proximity to Russia. Instead, he highlighted strengthened alliance capabilities, new defense plans, and collective resolve under Article 5, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all.
The remarks come against a backdrop of persistent tensions, including repeated Russian airspace violations near Baltic borders and intelligence assessments warning of Moscow's military rebuilding efforts. Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service has noted that while Russia currently lacks intent for direct NATO attacks in the near term, it is expanding ammunition production and unmanned systems capabilities, potentially to deter or complicate Western support for Ukraine and European rearmament.
Tsahkna's statement aligns with broader NATO planning, which includes scenarios for offensive operations to degrade Russian military assets if triggered by aggression against alliance territory. The Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—have long been viewed as potential flashpoints due to their strategic location, shared borders with Russia, and significant Russian-speaking minorities in some areas. Potential targets like the Estonian border city of Narva have been discussed in defense analyses as symbolic or tactical objectives.
The warning serves as a clear signal of deterrence, aimed at convincing Moscow that any incursion would escalate rapidly and incur severe costs. Tsahkna emphasized that NATO is "stronger than ever," with enhanced forward presence battlegroups, rapid reinforcement plans, and integrated air and missile defenses across the region.
This tough rhetoric from Estonia, one of NATO's most vocal critics of Russian actions, reflects the frontline perspective of Baltic leaders who have consistently advocated for robust alliance responses. It contrasts with more cautious statements from some Western capitals but reinforces the principle that NATO's collective defense is indivisible.
No immediate official response from NATO headquarters or Russia has been reported on Tsahkna's specific comments, though the alliance has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to defending every inch of member territory. The interview coincides with ongoing European discussions on increasing defense spending and addressing perceived gaps in readiness amid uncertainties in transatlantic relations.
As geopolitical risks persist, such public declarations aim to shape calculations in Moscow while bolstering confidence among alliance members. Estonia's position highlights the Baltic states' proactive role in pushing for credible deterrence strategies to prevent rather than merely respond to potential threats.
