António Costa, President of the European Council, has described Russia as the primary beneficiary of the ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran, citing the conflict's dramatic impact on global energy markets and Europe's strategic vulnerabilities.
In remarks delivered during a press conference in Brussels on March 10, 2026, Costa warned that the war — now in its second week — has triggered a sharp rise in energy prices and shifted geopolitical dynamics in Moscow's favor.
“Russia appears to be the only clear winner of this conflict,” Costa stated. “Rising energy prices are once again benefiting Moscow's war chest, while Europe and many of our partners face renewed pressure on energy security and inflation.”
The comments reflect growing concern in European capitals over the unintended economic and security consequences of the U.S.-led operation, which began with strikes on February 28, 2026, that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and more than 1,200 others.
Key points highlighted by Costa include:
Energy Price Surge — Global oil prices have remained well above $100 per barrel since early March, driven by fears of prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20–30% of the world's seaborne oil passes). Reports of Iranian threats to close or restrict the strait have intensified market volatility.
Russia's Revenue Windfall — Higher oil and gas prices directly increase Russia's export earnings, providing critical funding for its military operations in Ukraine despite Western sanctions. Costa noted that every sustained dollar increase in oil prices translates into additional billions for Moscow's war effort.
Europe's Renewed Vulnerability — The conflict has exposed the continent's continued reliance on imported energy, even after efforts to diversify away from Russian supplies following the 2022 Ukraine invasion. Several EU member states have warned of renewed inflationary pressures and potential energy shortages if the crisis escalates further.
Geopolitical Realignment — Costa suggested that the war distracts Western attention and resources from supporting Ukraine, indirectly easing pressure on Russia while complicating diplomatic efforts to isolate Moscow globally.
The European Council president called for urgent diplomatic de-escalation and renewed focus on protecting critical maritime routes, including through enhanced EU naval presence in the region if necessary. He also reiterated the bloc's commitment to supporting Israel’s security while urging all parties to avoid actions that could lead to a wider regional war.
“Europe cannot afford to be caught in the crossfire of this conflict,” Costa said. “We must protect our energy security, support our partners, and work tirelessly to prevent this from becoming a prolonged war that only strengthens those who thrive on global instability.”
The remarks align with warnings from several EU foreign ministers and energy officials in recent days, as the bloc grapples with the dual challenge of supporting Ukraine against Russia while managing the fallout from the Middle East crisis. With oil futures showing continued upward pressure and shipping insurance rates soaring, European leaders are increasingly focused on contingency planning for prolonged energy market turbulence.
