Prime Minister Keir Starmer has acknowledged that the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran is “likely” to affect people and businesses in the United Kingdom, as the conflict shows no immediate signs of resolution and regional tensions continue to escalate.
Speaking at a community centre in London on Monday, March 9, 2026, Starmer outlined the proactive steps his government is taking to anticipate and mitigate potential economic fallout. He emphasized the importance of forward planning and international coordination in the face of a conflict that has already driven global oil prices above $100 per barrel, disrupted shipping routes, and heightened fears of broader energy and supply chain shocks.
“The job of government is obviously to get ahead, to look around the corner, to work with others. And the chancellor speaks to the governor of the Bank of England on a daily basis,” Starmer said. “We’re looking cross-departmental within the government, assessing the risks, monitoring and talking to our international partners as well about what more we can do together to reduce the likely impact on people here and businesses here of course.”
He stressed the need for transparency with the public, noting that prolonged conflict would almost certainly translate into higher living costs, inflationary pressures, and disruptions for households and companies. “But it is important to acknowledge that that work is needed, because people will sense ... that the longer this goes on, the more likely - the potential for an impact on our economy and impact to the lives and households of everybody and every business,” he added.
The prime minister also addressed the risk of domestic social tensions, warning that “some people” might attempt to exploit the war to “divide communities in this country and tear people apart.” He urged unity, stating firmly: “We mustn’t let that happen.”
Starmer reiterated his government’s cautious stance on direct military involvement. He defended his decision to prohibit the United States from using British bases for offensive strikes against Iran, limiting UK support to “defensive” operations only. “Those decisions about what’s in Britain’s best interests are decisions for the prime minister of Britain,” he said. “That’s how I’ve approached all of the questions and all the decisions that I’ve had to make. It is really important. That’s a fundamental principle - that the UK prime minister would make the decisions, using our values, our principles, in the best interests of our country. And it’s really important that we are very, very clear about that principle.”
The comments come amid recent exchanges with US President Donald Trump. On Saturday, Trump posted publicly that he did not want British aircraft carriers deployed to the Middle East, stating: “We don’t need people that join wars after we’ve already won.” Despite the pointed remark, Starmer and Trump held discussions on Sunday regarding military cooperation, including the potential use of Royal Air Force bases to support “collective self-defense of partners in the region.”
Starmer also used the occasion to express condolences over the reported deaths of US service members in the conflict, underscoring the UK’s solidarity with its closest ally while maintaining a clear line on sovereign decision-making.
The prime minister’s remarks reflect growing concern in Downing Street about the war’s second-order effects on the British economy. The conflict, which intensified following the February 28, 2026, US-Israeli strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has already led to sharp rises in energy costs, insurance premiums for shipping, and uncertainty in global markets. Analysts warn that sustained disruption to Middle Eastern oil production, the Strait of Hormuz, or Red Sea shipping lanes could push UK inflation higher and strain household budgets already pressured by post-pandemic recovery and cost-of-living challenges.
Starmer’s government is reportedly working on contingency measures, including closer monitoring of energy markets, potential support for vulnerable households, and diplomatic efforts alongside European partners to de-escalate the crisis where possible. The prime minister’s candid admission that impacts are “likely” marks a shift toward greater public transparency about the real-world consequences of the war reaching British shores, even as the UK avoids direct combat involvement.
As the situation in the Middle East evolves, attention in Westminster remains focused on balancing alliance commitments, national security interests, and protecting the domestic economy and social cohesion from external shocks.
