ABUJA — The All Progressives Congress (APC) is currently navigating a treacherous political landscape as it prepares for the 2027 general elections. What was intended to be a streamlined process of consensus to ensure party unity has instead ignited a powder keg of internal resistance, legal threats, and high-stakes political realignments across Nigeria’s 36 states.
At the heart of the crisis is a fundamental disagreement over how candidates should emerge. While the party’s national leadership and several incumbent governors are pushing for a negotiated consensus arrangement to avoid bruising internal battles, a growing wave of aspirants—many of whom have already spent millions on nomination forms—are demanding a return to direct primaries. They argue that the current path is not consensus but imposition, a move they claim subverts the democratic rights of the party’s rank-and-file.
While the states are embroiled in localized warfare, the top of the ticket appears settled—at least administratively. On Thursday, in a ceremony heavy with political symbolism at the Shettima Hall of the Bola Tinubu International Conference Centre, Vice President Kashim Shettima formally submitted President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s completed expression of interest and nomination forms. Addressing a crowd of top government officials, Shettima framed the President’s re-election bid as a national necessity. He urged all Nigerians, irrespective of differences in political affiliations, religious persuasions, or social background, to support the nomination, describing it as the key to sustaining ongoing reforms and national development.
The APC National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, reinforced this by stating that the National Executive Committee (NEC) and the National Working Committee (NWC) had already unanimously endorsed the President. To provide a veneer of democratic competition, National Secretary Ajibola Bashiru noted that despite the endorsement, the party would utilize a direct primary for the presidency, stating that whoever is willing to contest against President Tinubu can do so.
The party's strategy has split the country into distinct zones of political friction. In states like Katsina, Borno, and Jigawa, the consensus option has been adopted as a strategy to reduce conflict, though signs of dissatisfaction are growing on social media. In other states such as Ondo, Benue, and Oyo, the party is heading for competitive primaries as aspirants insist on open contests. Meanwhile, regions like Yobe, Ogun, Sokoto, and Kwara are witnessing significant pushback, with aspirants rejecting consensus and demanding transparent selection processes.
In Katsina State, Governor Dikko Umaru Radda has successfully steered the party toward a unified front. Radda, seeking re-election, defended the move after submitting his forms in Abuja, noting that almost all elected officials in the state belong to the APC. He stated that stakeholders agreed on consensus to maintain strength and peace. Similarly, in Borno, a smooth transition appears likely as Mustapha Gubio emerged as the preferred choice after his main contender, Senator Kakashehu Lawan, stepped down.
The situation in Ogun State is markedly different. A peace of the graveyard currently exists as Governor Dapo Abiodun pushes a consensus arrangement that his rivals label forced. The friction is most visible in Ogun East, where the Governor has declared himself the consensus senatorial candidate—a move that saw former Governor and incumbent Senator Otunba Gbenga Daniel allegedly barred from the meeting venue. Daniel’s viral videos claiming exclusion have exposed a deep rift in the state's leadership.
In Yobe State, the endorsement of former SSG Baba Wali has sparked a mutiny. Senator Ibrahim Bomai and aspirant Musa Tumsah have categorically rejected the arrangement. Bomai stated that they reject the culture of imposition and any scheme that undermines fairness and equity. This has led to a coalition of aspirants demanding direct primaries to decide the governorship ticket.
The tension is exacerbated by the Electoral Act 2025, which provides clear guidelines for how these contests must be managed. Many aspirants are leaning on the law to challenge the party’s administrative shortcuts. In Zamfara, former Governor Mahmuda Shinkafi has drawn a line in the sand, insisting that while the governorship may be settled, all legislative positions must be contested. He warned that they would never agree on the imposition of candidates.
In Ondo State, the Director of Media and Publicity, Steve Otaloro, admitted that consensus might not be feasible since nearly all aspirants have already purchased forms. He conceded that where consensus is not mutually agreed upon, the party will proceed with a direct primary.
As the internal dust settles, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has laid out an unyielding schedule. Party primaries and the resolution of related disputes are set for April 23 to May 30, 2026. Campaigns for the Presidential and National Assembly elections will begin on August 19, 2026, followed by governorship campaigns on September 9. The actual elections are scheduled for January 16 and February 6, 2027, respectively.
The APC’s reliance on consensus is a double-edged sword. While it may save in primary election costs and prevent public internal battles, the lack of a competitive outlet is driving aggrieved members toward anti-party activities or defection. In Kano, youth groups like the Coalition for Better Kano are already protesting the allocation of tickets to former governors, arguing that party loyalty must be rewarded over elder-statesman status. In Sokoto, the endorsement of incumbent lawmakers has unsettled the state’s political balance, particularly in the Kware/Wamakko Federal Constituency.
As the screening exercise begins on May 7 and concludes on May 12, the party’s National Working Committee faces a Herculean task. They must decide whether to force through their consensus lists—potentially inviting a wave of litigation—or open the gates to direct primaries that could leave the party fractured just months before the general election. The APC stands at a crossroads, needing to choose between maintaining the peace through administrative decree or embracing the legitimizing process of the open ballot.
Did you find the breakdown of the state-by-state strategies helpful, or would you like more detail on the specific legal challenges being filed against the consensus arrangements?
