Unlike the tumultuous and fiercely contested primary season of 2022, the President’s re-nomination has transitioned from a political contest into what insiders are calling a mere coronation. With the party machinery firmly within his grasp, attention has swiftly shifted from whether Tinubu would secure the ticket to who will stand beside him on the ballot as his running mate.
To understand the magnitude of President Tinubu’s current grip on the ruling party, observers point back to the high-stakes drama of the 2022 APC presidential primaries. At that time, Tinubu had to sweat it out against a formidable galaxy of internal opponents. He faced intense opposition from figures such as the then-sitting Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, and the influential former Governor of Rivers State and Minister of Transportation, Rt. Hon. Rotimi Amaechi, alongside a host of other political heavyweights who each commanded significant regional structures.
While that opposition ultimately proved weak against Tinubu’s deeply entrenched political machine, it required immense strategic maneuvering, high-level negotiations, and substantial political capital to overcome. Fast forward to the present, and the political landscape has undergone a radical transformation. Today, President Tinubu is completely in charge of the body and soul of the APC. The political deference he commands within the party is absolute.
Abuja-based political analyst Dr. Chidi Amadi noted that the reality of contemporary Nigerian politics is that nobody, ordinarily, should have summoned the courage to challenge or engage President Tinubu in any form of contest for the party's ticket, whether spiritual or physical. He explained that the president has institutionalized his grip on the party structure so thoroughly that an internal challenge was practically unthinkable.
With the presidential ticket safely in Tinubu’s hands, the central question dominating the corridors of power in Abuja is whether he will maintain his partnership with the incumbent Vice President, Kashim Shettima, or look elsewhere for a running mate.
When Tinubu first selected Shettima ahead of the 2023 elections, the decision triggered widespread controversy and pockets of fierce resistance across the country. The opposition was primarily driven by Nigeria’s fragile religious composition. Because Tinubu is a Muslim and Shettima is also a Muslim, the choice bypassed the traditional North-South, Christian-Muslim balancing act that has historically characterized Nigerian presidential tickets. Amid intense national debate, allegations emerged from critics who claimed the Muslim-Muslim ticket was part of a broader plot to Islamize the country.
However, as the 2027 polls draw nearer, the fierce resistance of yesteryear appears to have largely faded. Current indications strongly suggest that Tinubu has resolved to run the upcoming race with Shettima by his side.
A major factor working in Shettima’s favor is his unalloyed loyalty to the President over the last few years. Several political observers and analysts have gone as far as describing Shettima as the most loyal deputy Nigeria has seen in nearly three decades of democratic governance.
In the volatile theater of Nigerian politics, relationship dynamics between presidents and their deputies have historically been fraught with tension, mutual suspicion, and public friction. However, Shettima has successfully bucked this trend. According to insiders, the Vice President has demonstrated an exceptional ability to understand and interpret the policies and programs of the Tinubu administration without a hint of animosity, rivalry, or confrontation.
An APC National Working Committee member, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, explained that in politics, loyalty must be total. Any suspicious move or independent ambition from a Vice President quickly leads to administrative friction. He added that Shettima appears to have studied his boss meticulously, mastering the best way to follow him without stepping on his toes, thereby avoiding missteps and earning Tinubu’s absolute confidence.
Furthermore, the highly sensitive issue of the same-faith ticket has lost much of its political potency. This shift is largely attributed to the prominent role and public profile of the First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu. As an ordained pastor in the Redeemed Christian Church of God and an experienced politician in her own right, the First Lady’s active presence at the center of power has served as a powerful counterweight to religious anxieties. Analysts point out that the opposition's narrative of a hidden Islamization agenda cannot hold water given Mrs. Tinubu’s profound visibility and influence within the administration.
Beyond loyalty and religious optics, the decision to retain Shettima boils down to cold, calculated political strategy. President Tinubu, widely regarded as a master political strategist, is well aware that politics is fundamentally a game of numbers. Dropping Shettima at this critical juncture could amount to political suicide. Vice President Shettima remains an undisputed political heavyweight from the northern flank of the country, particularly within the Northeast geopolitical zone. He commands a massive, fiercely loyal grassroots following, consisting of supporters who observers say are ready to lay down their political lives for him. Severing ties with Shettima would risk alienating a vital electoral bloc that the APC requires to secure a decisive victory in 2027.
The stability of the presidency is further reinforced by the cordial relationship between the wives of the nation's top two leaders. The bond between the First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, and the wife of the Vice President, Hajia Nana Shettima, has added a layer of social cohesion to the administration. This partnership is most visible through the Renewed Hope Initiative, a flagship humanitarian foundation founded by the First Lady to champion the empowerment of women, youth, and girls across Nigeria. Hajia Nana Shettima serves as the national vice-chairman of the initiative and routinely represents the First Lady at major events, humanitarian outreaches, and empowerment programs across various states. This public display of synergy reflects the lack of friction existing between their husbands at the apex of state power.
As the political machinery of the state gears up for the official campaign season, the status quo appears firmly entrenched. Despite the inevitable quiet political maneuvering, whispers of ambition, and behind-the-scenes intrigues from rival factions, political analysts agree that it would be a massive surprise if President Tinubu were to drop Shettima now. The partnership has proven to be politically stable, administratively cohesive, and electorally potent. Yet, as veterans of the Nigerian political landscape constantly remind the public, in the volatile world of politics, nothing is ever truly impossible. For now, however, the Tinubu-Shettima ticket looks poised to march toward 2027 completely intact.
