As Nigeria approaches the midway point between one administration and another electoral cycle, a complex opposition realignment is steadily unfolding, involving familiar faces, fractured loyalties, and a flurry of political experiments seeking to upend the established order ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Yet, the path to building a formidable anti-incumbent force is proving far more complicated than press briefings and symbolic photographs suggest.
The unfolding drama is a growing coalition of political heavyweights among them former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, former Rivers governor Rotimi Amaechi, and PDP chieftain Sule Lamido. While they converge in their opposition to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, their differences in platform loyalty, ambition, and ideological temperament raise the critical question: is this alliance a dress rehearsal or a serious threat to Tinubu’s second term?
In a significant twist that underscores the fragility of the movement, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recently rejected the application to register the All Democratic Alliance (ADA), a name floated by some coalition actors as a new vehicle for opposition unity. The rejection not only delays the possibility of a fresh party but also compels coalition members to choose between resuscitating weakened existing parties or navigating new institutional hurdles; a reality that may test their cohesion before 2026, let alone 2027.
The failure to register ADA reveals a deeper absence of consensus within the coalition. While some advocate for a new platform entirely, others insist on reforming or co-opting existing parties, raising fears that the so-called mega opposition may crack under the weight of its competing visions before it fully takes shape.
In this context, former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai has become one of the most vocal figures of disaffection, going as far as expressing regret for supporting President Tinubu’s emergence in 2023. Speaking on Arise News recently, El-Rufai said: “I just feel like I contributed to this country’s problems by bringing the evil Tinubu into power. I should do the last lap by removing Tinubu.”
The former governor has since defected from the ruling APC and aligned with the unregistered ADA coalition, which he describes as a cross-platform convergence of like-minded patriots seeking to “drive away urban bandits” and “fix Nigeria.” El-Rufai further drew parallels between the current political atmosphere and the build-up to the 2015 election that unseated former President Goodluck Jonathan.
However, while El-Rufai attempts to cast himself as a moral compass for Nigeria’s next political rebirth, his posturing raises serious contradictions particularly when placed against the backdrop of the 2023 election results in his own domain.
Despite being the sitting APC governor in Kaduna at the time, El-Rufai failed to deliver the state to Tinubu. The Peoples Democratic Party’s Atiku Abubakar convincingly won the presidential vote in Kaduna, while the APC also lost key National Assembly seats, including Senate and House of Representatives constituencies.
Political observers note that El-Rufai’s new-found criticism of Tinubu, while passionate, may be less about public interest and more about personal positioning. Rights activist and former Kaduna Central Senator, Shehu Sani, described such opposition figures as “a group of disgruntled elements who are frustrated as he noted that their actions is not about the country or the people but simply about being excluded from the system.” His comments speak to a broader perception that some opposition actors are simply rebranding old ambitions in new coalitions.
Former NEF spokesperson Hakeem Baba-Ahmed also dealt a blow to the coalition’s credibility, calling it “disappointing, self-serving, and lacking national vision.” He questioned why the same political actors who have rotated power among themselves for decades now claim to offer hope, noting that none of the coalition arrangements had involved him despite his known advocacy for a strong alternative.
Parallel to these internal criticisms, the two most potent opposition brands: the Peoples Democratic Party and Labour Party are currently battling crises that cast a long shadow over their capacity to serve as a united front.
The PDP remains entangled in unresolved fractures stemming from the 2023 elections. The G-5 rebellion led by Nyesom Wike, questions around Atiku’s repeated candidacy, and renewed agitation over zoning have left the party drifting. Senior party figures such as Bode George have warned that another Atiku ticket could spell the final disintegration of the platform, while others remain divided on whether to align with emerging coalitions or rebuild from within.
Labour Party, which rode the wave of youth-driven momentum in 2023 under Peter Obi, has also been dragged into protracted leadership disputes between Julius Abure’s camp and other contenders, weakening its coherence. Despite Obi’s growing national appeal, his political capital risks erosion if the LP fails to stabilise internally and define its next strategic direction.
El-Rufai, having moved to the Social Democratic Party earlier this year, had hoped to position the SDP as the nucleus of the new opposition bloc. However, the party’s entrenched interests have resisted his attempt to dominate it. Party elders have maintained loyalty to 2023 presidential candidate Adewole Adebayo, who has declared interest to run again, while former military officer Major Hamza Al-Mustapha has also entered the fray, crowding the space further.
This internal resistance has left many wondering whether El-Rufai’s decision to join the SDP was a rushed miscalculation or a bold gamble with long-term vision. Without a clear pathway to the party’s control or consensus within its ranks, his presidential ambition may face hurdles as stiff as those he left behind in the APC.
While the opposition wrestles with internal contradictions, President Tinubu appears to be consolidating his political foundation. Most APC governors, National Assembly blocs, and party structures across the zones have reaffirmed support for his re-election as the Presidency continues to tout economic stabilisation, infrastructure expansion, and security improvements as key gains.
Still, critics insist that these achievements remain elite-facing. Nigeria’s inflation crisis, youth unemployment, and the burden of subsidy removal continue to trigger frustration among ordinary citizens. For many, governance outcomes have not significantly improved their living conditions, offering the opposition a ripe narrative if only they can speak with one voice.
Opposition figures are quick to draw comparisons with 2015, arguing that national sentiment, not incumbency, decides elections. But Tinubu’s allies caution against such parallels. They argue that, unlike Jonathan, Tinubu is a deeply entrenched political tactician with far-reaching control over party machinery, regional alliances, and power blocs.
The journey to 2027 is no longer just a timeline on the calendar but has become a high-stakes contest for Nigeria’s democratic soul. For the opposition, time is running out to prove that this is not just another dress rehearsal. They must overcome legal setbacks, ideological divisions, party crises, and the temptation of personal ambition. Above all, they must offer Nigerians a real alternative that inspires trust, not just an alliance of disaffected power seekers.
For President Tinubu and the APC, the challenge is to govern in a way that silences criticism with results, not rhetoric. Endorsements may fortify the base, but only transformational governance will guarantee re-election.
