In Osun State’s ever-volatile political landscape, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola has upended expectations with his defection to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), assuming the role of National Secretary. Far from being a routine political switch, the former governor’s move represents the wholesale transplantation of his powerful Omoluabi Progressives political structure into a party once seen as peripheral.
Aregbesola is not merely crossing party lines; he is repositioning a battle-hardened political machine. His Omoluabi bloc now plans to field ADC candidates in key constituencies in 2027, with sights firmly set on the 2026 governorship.
The former minister’s departure exposes deep fractures within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Osun. His expulsion by the faction led by former Governor Gboyega Oyetola left enduring divisions, with reconciliation efforts yielding little success. By publicly rejecting a return to the APC fold, Aregbesola has fortified his independence and added a formidable edge to the ADC’s profile in Osun.
With figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar already gravitating towards the ADC at the national level, Aregbesola’s entry enhances the party’s credibility and positions it as a viable alternative to the dominant APC-PDP axis.
His influence could prove decisive, especially in Osun Central, where his political roots run deep. The ADC is now poised to become a legitimate third force, shifting the state’s political equation from binary to triangular, reshaping voting patterns and challenging long-held assumptions.
Aregbesola’s emergence as a key player in the ADC presents both opportunities and risks, especially for Governor Ademola Adeleke and the PDP. Many of Adeleke’s moderate APC supporters were originally aligned with Aregbesola. With their political mentor now under the ADC banner, there’s a strong chance they may follow suit.
This raises the spectre of vote-splitting. A re-energised ADC could siphon off enough non-PDP votes to prevent Adeleke from securing a comfortable majority. Recognising this, the governor has recently extended public praise towards Aregbesola, an apparent attempt at political bridge-building.
Although Adeleke remains popular, bolstered by his administration’s accomplishments, the ADC’s entrance into the race reduces the margin of error for the PDP. The party can no longer afford to treat the ADC as a minor nuisance. It must now contend with a three-horse race in which the opposition is divided, but more complex.
Zone-by-Zone Breakdown:
Osun Central Senatorial District (Osogbo Axis)
Comprising Osogbo, Olorunda, Egbedore, and Boripe LGAs, this urbanised region is both symbolically and numerically significant. It is Aregbesola’s heartland, especially in Osogbo. The APC still holds sway in Boripe and Olorunda through Oyetola loyalists, but internal disunity could blunt their effectiveness.
The ADC is expected to make significant inroads here, potentially weakening the APC further. Adeleke’s PDP, while benefiting from incumbency and youth support, may see marginal losses if the ADC energises the urban grassroots.
Osun West Senatorial District (Ede/Iwo/Ila Axis)
This is Adeleke’s stronghold, with Ede North and South delivering decisive support in 2022. Iwo and Ayedire remain swing LGAs with lingering APC strength. However, lower turnout historically dampens dramatic swings.
The PDP is projected to hold firm here. Aregbesola’s influence is limited, and the ADC is unlikely to find fertile ground. Any potential APC gains in Iwo would require a standout local candidate, but even that may not be sufficient to unsettle Adeleke’s grip.
Osun East Senatorial District (Ife/Ijesa Axis)
Long considered an APC stronghold due to the Ijesa bloc, this region presents a different challenge. Aregbesola’s Ijesa heritage gives the ADC a unique advantage in Ilesa and Obokun, while Ife North and South lean PDP. Adeleke’s infrastructure projects, including the ongoing flyover in Ile-Ife, boost his standing in the Ife towns.
Here, the ADC could seriously dent APC’s support base. If Aregbesola backs a strong Ijesa candidate, the ADC might cannibalise old APC votes. The PDP will likely hold its base in Ife, though the margin of victory may tighten. This district could become a fiercely contested three-way race, with the APC most at risk of losing ground if it cannot win back its former loyalists.
The greater danger for Adeleke may not lie in an outright ADC win, but in losing enough swing votes, especially in Osun Central and East, to make the election uncomfortably close. Aregbesola’s Omoluabi network, if fully mobilised, could transform the ADC into a serious spoiler.
If local ADC alliances emerge, particularly among youth or civil society groups disillusioned with the status quo, the party could exceed expectations. In that case, the 2026 governorship race might resemble a runoff in all but name.
Ironically, a deeper split between the APC and ADC could benefit Adeleke by dividing opposition votes. But if the two camps unite under a compromise ticket, the governor’s re-election calculus becomes significantly more complicated.
For now, the momentum is with Adeleke, but Osun 2026 is no longer a two-way contest. Aregbesola has ensured that much.
