In a heartening development for Africa's largest economy, Nigeria is witnessing a cascade of positive economic indicators that point toward a period of renewed stability and cautious optimism. As of the second quarter of 2025, inflation has eased for the fifth consecutive month, settling at a more manageable 20 percent. This marks a significant slowdown from the double-digit spikes that plagued the nation in previous years, offering a glimmer of relief to households grappling with rising living costs. Complementing this trend, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has maintained a robust pace above 3 percent, underscoring the resilience of key sectors amid global uncertainties. Adding to the bullish narrative is a substantial merchandise trade surplus of N7.4 trillion recorded in the same quarter, fueled by a competitive exchange rate and a suite of disciplined economic reforms.
These milestones were highlighted in an official statement issued by Mohammed Manga, the Director of Information and Public Relations at the Federal Ministry of Finance. The announcement came on the heels of a pivotal meeting of the Economic Management Team (EMT), held on Thursday in Abuja and chaired by the Honorable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun. The gathering, convened in Edun's office, served as a comprehensive review of Nigeria's macroeconomic performance and sectoral priorities, reflecting the administration's proactive stance in steering the economy away from volatility.
The statement, rich in detail and forward-looking in tone, encapsulated the EMT's deliberations: "The meeting welcomed further signs of stability in the economy, with inflation easing for the fifth consecutive month to 20%, GDP growth holding above 3%, and a merchandise trade surplus of ₦7.4 trillion in Q2 2025 outcomes underpinned by a competitive exchange rate and disciplined reforms." This language not only celebrates the achievements but also attributes them to strategic policy measures, signaling to investors and citizens alike that the government's reform agenda is yielding tangible fruits.
To fully appreciate the gravity of these figures, it's essential to contextualize them within Nigeria's recent economic history. Just a few years prior, the nation was reeling from the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by domestic challenges such as fuel subsidy removals, naira devaluation, and supply chain disruptions exacerbated by global events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Inflation, which peaked above 34 percent in mid-2024, had eroded purchasing power, driving up prices for essentials like food, fuel, and housing. The persistent inflationary pressure stemmed from a confluence of factors: imported inflation due to a weakening naira, domestic supply shortages in agriculture, and fiscal imbalances from years of deficit spending.
The descent to 20 percent inflation represents a hard-won victory, achieved through a multi-pronged approach. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), under its current leadership, has tightened monetary policy by hiking the benchmark interest rate to 26.25 percent earlier in 2025—a bold move that, while initially painful for borrowers, has curbed excess liquidity and stabilized prices. Fiscal discipline has been equally crucial, with the government slashing non-essential expenditures and redirecting funds toward infrastructure and social safety nets. The competitive exchange rate, floated more freely since mid-2024, has bolstered export competitiveness, particularly in non-oil sectors like agriculture and manufacturing, which contributed to the trade surplus.
Speaking of the surplus, the N7.4 trillion figure is nothing short of remarkable. Nigeria's trade balance has long been a sore point, with chronic deficits in services and over-reliance on oil exports leaving the economy vulnerable to commodity price swings. In Q2 2025, however, exports surged by an estimated 15 percent year-on-year, driven by robust demand for Nigerian crude oil amid recovering global energy markets and a diversification push into solid minerals and agro-exports. Imports, meanwhile, moderated due to import substitution initiatives, such as local rice production ramp-ups under the Anchor Borrowers' Programme. This surplus not only bolsters foreign reserves—now hovering above $35 billion—but also provides a buffer against external shocks, enhancing the naira's stability.
The EMT's endorsement of these trends underscores a broader narrative of reform-driven progress. Chaired by Mr. Wale Edun, a seasoned economist with a background in investment banking and prior roles in Lagos State's economic planning, the team comprises key figures from the ministries of finance, budget, trade, and industry. Their Thursday session wasn't merely a pat on the back; it was a strategic huddle to align on next steps. Edun, known for his data-driven approach, emphasized that these indicators are "clear signs that government reforms are beginning to deliver results." His words resonate with the administration's Renewed Hope Agenda, which prioritizes inclusive growth, digital transformation, and private-sector empowerment.
Delving deeper into the meeting's agenda, a standout highlight was the presentation of the National Livestock Growth and Advancement Strategy (NL-GAS) by the Minister of Livestock Development, Alhaji Idi Mukhtar Maiha. This ambitious initiative, unveiled as a cornerstone of sectoral reforms, outlines a two-phased, 10-year blueprint designed to revolutionize Nigeria's livestock value chain. With the sector currently contributing about 5-6 percent to GDP but plagued by inefficiencies, conflicts, and low productivity, NL-GAS arrives at a critical juncture.
Alhaji Maiha, a veterinarian by training with extensive experience in agricultural policy, painted a vivid picture of the strategy's scope during the EMT briefing. The plan's Phase One, spanning 2025-2030, focuses on foundational interventions: modernizing grazing reserves, deploying solar-powered boreholes for water access, and establishing veterinary clinics to combat diseases like foot-and-mouth. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) will be central, inviting agribusiness giants to invest in feedlots, abattoirs, and cold-chain logistics. By 2030, the strategy targets a 50 percent increase in herd sizes for cattle, sheep, and goats, alongside a 30 percent boost in milk and meat output.
Phase Two, from 2031-2035, escalates the ambition, aiming to double overall herd sizes and expand sectoral output by at least 100 percent. This will involve advanced technologies such as AI-driven herd monitoring, drone surveillance for ranch security, and blockchain for traceability in exports. Maiha stressed the strategy's role in addressing longstanding farmer-herder conflicts by promoting ranching over open grazing, with pilot ranches already underway in states like Benue and Plateau. "NL-GAS is more than a plan; it's a blueprint to modernize Nigeria’s livestock sector through phased interventions," he declared, emphasizing its alignment with food security goals.
The EMT's reception was overwhelmingly positive. Minister Edun affirmed that initiatives like NL-GAS exemplify the government's commitment to unlocking investment, enhancing food security, and laying a foundation for sustainable, private-sector-led growth. In a country where over 80 million people depend on livestock for livelihoods, the strategy's potential ripple effects are profound. It could slash the N1.2 trillion annual import bill for dairy and meat, create thousands of jobs in processing and transport, and position Nigeria as a regional exporter—potentially rivaling Kenya and Ethiopia in East African markets.
To understand NL-GAS's urgency, consider the sector's chronic underperformance. Nigeria boasts the world's largest population of cattle—over 20 million heads—but yields per animal lag far behind global averages. Milk production, for instance, stands at a mere 600 grams per cow daily, compared to 20-30 liters in efficient dairy farms elsewhere. Pastoralism, the dominant system, is inefficient and conflict-prone, with clashes displacing communities and disrupting supply chains. Climate change compounds these woes, with droughts in the north shrinking pastures and floods in the south ruining feed crops.
The strategy's emphasis on PPPs is a savvy nod to fiscal realities. With public coffers strained, the government plans to leverage N500 billion in private investments over the decade, seeded by incentives like tax holidays and land grants. International partners, including the World Bank and African Development Bank, have signaled support, viewing NL-GAS as a model for agro-industrialization. Early wins include a memorandum of understanding with a Dutch firm for artificial insemination tech, promising to improve breed quality and resilience.
Beyond livestock, the EMT meeting touched on interconnected priorities. Discussions on digital economy reforms highlighted the rollout of the 5G network, now covering 70 percent of urban areas, which is spurring fintech innovations and e-commerce. Oil sector updates revealed production climbing to 1.7 million barrels per day, thanks to security enhancements in the Niger Delta. And on the fiscal front, debt servicing costs have dipped below 40 percent of revenues for the first time in years, freeing up resources for capital projects.
These threads weave into a tapestry of holistic recovery. The consistent downward trend in inflation— from 34.2 percent in June 2024 to 20 percent now—demonstrates the efficacy of targeted interventions. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, has fallen even faster, to 18 percent, indicating structural improvements. GDP growth above 3 percent, while modest by emerging market standards, is a lifeline for a nation with 220 million people and a youth bulge demanding jobs. Services led the charge at 4.1 percent growth, buoyed by telecoms and finance, while agriculture inched up to 2.8 percent, setting the stage for NL-GAS's impact.
Yet, challenges persist. Unemployment lingers at 33 percent, particularly among youth, and poverty affects 40 percent of the population. Power shortages hamstring manufacturing, and insecurity in the northwest hampers farming. The EMT acknowledged these, pledging accelerated implementation of the National Social Investment Programme, which has reached 15 million beneficiaries with cash transfers and skills training.
Looking ahead, the road to 2030 holds promise. Projections from the National Bureau of Statistics suggest inflation could dip below 15 percent by year-end if reforms hold. Trade surpluses may swell further with AfCFTA integration, opening doors to 1.3 billion consumers. And NL-GAS could catalyze a "green revolution" in proteins, reducing malnutrition rates that currently afflict 37 percent of children under five.
In sum, Thursday's EMT meeting wasn't just a review; it was a reaffirmation of momentum. As Mr. Edun and his team plot the course, Nigeria stands at an inflection point—poised to transform stability into prosperity. For citizens from Lagos traders to Kano herders, these signs offer hope: the reforms are working, and brighter days lie ahead.
Deeper Dive: The Mechanics of Economic Stabilization
To unpack the inflation narrative, let's examine the data points more granularly. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that headline inflation eased to 20.3 percent in August 2025, down from 21.1 percent in July—a deceleration of 0.8 percentage points. Food inflation, the primary driver at 24.5 percent, showed the most relief, with staples like yam and maize prices stabilizing due to better harvests in the middle belt. This trend is the fifth straight monthly decline, a streak unbroken since March 2025, when rates hovered at 28.9 percent.
What engineered this pivot? The CBN's aggressive rate hikes, starting from 18.75 percent in May 2024, squeezed speculative hoarding and channeled credit toward productive sectors. Parallel efforts by the Nigeria Customs Service curbed smuggling, ensuring more food stayed domestic. Moreover, the removal of fuel subsidies in phases—fully phased out by January 2025—while initially inflationary, has now yielded savings of N2.5 trillion quarterly, redirected to fertilizer subsidies that boosted yields by 20 percent.
On GDP, the 3.4 percent Q2 growth masks sectoral variances. Non-oil GDP expanded at 3.6 percent, with solid minerals like lithium extraction surging 12 percent amid global EV demand. Oil GDP, at 2.1 percent, benefited from OPEC+ quotas and theft reductions via surveillance tech. Comparatively, this outpaces sub-Saharan Africa's 2.5 percent average, per IMF estimates, positioning Nigeria as a regional anchor.
The trade surplus warrants a closer lens. Q2 exports totaled N12.1 trillion, up from N10.2 trillion in Q1, with oil accounting for 70 percent but non-oil (cocoa, sesame) rising 25 percent. Imports fell to N4.7 trillion, as local textile production under the Backward Integration Policy displaced Asian imports. The naira's 15 percent appreciation against the dollar since April has made exports punchier, while reserves hit $36.2 billion, covering 12 months of imports.
Spotlight on NL-GAS: A Sectoral Game-Changer
Alhaji Maiha's presentation was the meeting's intellectual centerpiece, blending vision with pragmatism. NL-GAS, budgeted at N1.5 trillion over 10 years (40 percent private-funded), targets 10 million smallholders. Phase One's interventions include 500 modern ranches, vaccinating 5 million animals annually, and value-addition hubs for leather goods. Phase Two introduces export-oriented clusters, aiming for $2 billion in annual revenues by 2035.
Challenges abound: land tenure disputes, climate variability, and gender gaps (women comprise 60 percent of backyard poultry farmers but access little credit). The strategy counters with women-focused cooperatives and climate-resilient breeds. Success stories from pilots—like a Bauchi ranch yielding 40 percent more milk—inspire scalability.
Broader Implications and Global Context
Globally, Nigeria's rebound aligns with easing commodity pressures; Brent crude at $75/barrel aids fiscal space. Yet, risks like US tariffs or Sahel instability loom. Domestically, the EMT's focus on human capital—via free education reforms—ensures inclusivity.
In conclusion, these developments herald a Nigeria reimagined: stable, diversified, and growth-oriented. As Edun noted, the foundation is set for private-led prosperity.
