In a nation as diverse and complex as Nigeria, political success at the highest level hinges on the ability to forge alliances across ethnic, regional, and religious lines. This was the central message delivered by Waziri Bulama, the former National Secretary of the All Progressives Congress (APC), during a recent interview on Arise Television. Bulama’s remarks, which emphasized the inevitability of political cooperation in Nigeria’s democratic system, came as a response to recent comments by Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who argued that the northern region holds the key to determining Nigeria’s next president. Bulama, however, countered this assertion, stressing that no single region, including the North, can secure the presidency without forming broad-based coalitions with other parts of the country. His comments underscore the intricate dynamics of Nigeria’s political landscape, where diversity necessitates unity to achieve electoral success.
The Context of Bulama’s Remarks
Nigeria, with its over 200 million people and more than 250 ethnic groups, is a nation defined by its diversity. The country’s political history is replete with examples of how regional and ethnic identities shape electoral outcomes. The presidency, as the highest office in the land, is a prize that requires navigating this complex tapestry of identities, interests, and aspirations. The Nigerian Constitution and electoral system further reinforce this reality, as winning the presidency demands not only a plurality of votes but also a geographical spread across at least two-thirds of the country’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Against this backdrop, Bulama’s remarks serve as a reminder of the pragmatic realities of Nigerian politics. His comments were a direct response to Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a prominent northern political figure and former spokesperson of the Northern Elders Forum, who recently suggested that the northern region’s voting power makes it indispensable in determining the outcome of presidential elections. Baba-Ahmed’s assertion that the North would soon decide where its votes would go sparked debates about the region’s influence and the broader question of how power is negotiated in Nigeria’s multi-ethnic democracy.
Bulama, a seasoned politician and strategist, challenged this narrative by arguing that while the North is undeniably a significant electoral force, it cannot unilaterally deliver the presidency. “Neither would a northerner win an election without the support of other parts of the country,” he stated, emphasizing the necessity of alliances in Nigeria’s political system. His perspective highlights a fundamental truth: in a country as pluralistic as Nigeria, no single region or ethnic group can dominate the political process without cooperation from others. This principle, Bulama argued, is the backbone of Nigeria’s democracy and a prerequisite for electoral success.
The North’s Electoral Influence and Its Limits
The northern region, comprising 19 states and a significant portion of Nigeria’s population, has long been a critical player in the country’s politics. With its large voter base and historical political cohesion, the North has often been described as a “kingmaker” in presidential elections. The region’s demographic weight, coupled with its history of producing several heads of state, both military and civilian, has cemented its reputation as a political powerhouse. However, Bulama’s remarks underscore the limits of this influence, particularly in the context of Nigeria’s evolving democratic system.
To illustrate his point, Bulama referenced the electoral history of former President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner who contested the presidency multiple times before finally securing victory in 2015. Despite consistently garnering around 12 million votes in his home region across three elections (2003, 2007, and 2011), Buhari’s inability to build alliances beyond the North limited his success in those earlier contests. It was only in 2015, when Buhari forged a broad coalition that included key political figures and regions from the South-West, South-South, and South-East, that he was able to clinch the presidency.
Bulama described Buhari’s eventual victory as the result of an “ideological movement that connected with citizens across the country, not just in the North but nationwide.” This coalition, which brought together diverse political actors under the banner of the APC, demonstrated the power of cross-regional alliances. The merger of Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) with other parties, including the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) led by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was a masterstroke in political strategy. It united the North and South-West, two regions with significant electoral influence, and created a formidable platform that ultimately unseated the incumbent People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
This historical example serves as a case study in the necessity of alliances. Buhari’s success was not solely the product of northern votes but rather the culmination of a deliberate effort to bridge regional divides. Bulama’s reference to this history reinforces his argument that no region, no matter how populous or politically cohesive, can go it alone in the race for the presidency.
The Imperative of Political Cooperation
At the heart of Bulama’s message is the idea that Nigeria’s diversity, while often seen as a challenge, is also its greatest strength. The country’s political system is designed to reflect this diversity, requiring candidates to appeal to a broad cross-section of the population. The constitutional requirement for a presidential candidate to secure at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the states ensures that no single region can dominate the process. This provision, enshrined in the 1999 Constitution, is a deliberate mechanism to promote inclusivity and prevent the marginalization of any region or group.
Bulama emphasized that true political success in Nigeria requires rising above ethnic, religious, and regional identities. “True party membership requires individuals to embrace collective values that strengthen the political system,” he said. This call for unity is particularly relevant in a country where political discourse is often polarized along regional and ethnic lines. The history of Nigerian politics is marked by tensions between the North and South, as well as among the major ethnic groups—Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo. These tensions have shaped electoral strategies, party formations, and even policy decisions.
However, Bulama’s remarks suggest that the path to political relevance lies in transcending these divides. He advocated for a political culture that prioritizes shared values and collective goals over parochial interests. This vision aligns with the ideals of federalism, which Nigeria adopted as a framework for governance to accommodate its diverse population. Federalism, in theory, encourages cooperation and power-sharing among the country’s constituent units, ensuring that no single group dominates the political process.
The Broader Implications of Bulama’s Argument
Bulama’s comments have far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s political future, particularly as the country approaches the 2027 general elections. The question of who will succeed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose first term ends in 2027, is already generating intense debate. The issue of regional representation is central to this conversation, as Nigeria has an unwritten tradition of rotating the presidency between the North and South to maintain balance and inclusivity.
The APC, as the ruling party, will play a pivotal role in shaping the dynamics of the next election. Bulama’s remarks suggest that the party must continue to prioritize coalition-building to maintain its dominance. The APC’s success in 2015 and 2019 was built on its ability to unite diverse interests under a single platform. However, maintaining this coalition in the face of emerging challenges—such as economic difficulties, insecurity, and growing regional agitations—will require deft political maneuvering.
Moreover, Bulama’s emphasis on alliances highlights the evolving nature of Nigerian politics. The rise of new political forces, including youth-led movements and regional advocacy groups, is reshaping the electoral landscape. The #EndSARS protests of 2020, for example, demonstrated the growing influence of young Nigerians in demanding accountability and good governance. These developments suggest that future coalitions will need to go beyond traditional regional and ethnic alignments to include new constituencies, such as the youth and urban middle class.
The Role of Ideology in Coalition-Building
One of the most intriguing aspects of Bulama’s interview was his reference to the “ideological movement” that propelled Buhari to victory in 2015. This statement invites a deeper exploration of the role of ideology in Nigerian politics. Historically, Nigerian political parties have been criticized for lacking clear ideological foundations, with many operating as loose coalitions of interests rather than coherent ideological platforms. The APC, however, positioned itself as a progressive alternative to the PDP, emphasizing anti-corruption, economic reform, and security.
Bulama’s invocation of ideology suggests that successful coalitions must be anchored in shared values and a clear vision for the country. This is particularly important in a nation where trust in political institutions is often low. By framing Buhari’s victory as the result of an ideological movement, Bulama underscores the importance of articulating a compelling narrative that resonates with voters across regional and ethnic lines. This narrative must address the pressing challenges facing Nigeria, including poverty, unemployment, insecurity, and infrastructure deficits.
However, building an ideological coalition is no easy task in a country as diverse as Nigeria. The interests of the North, with its agrarian economy and concerns about security, may differ from those of the South-West, which prioritizes industrialization and economic diversification. Similarly, the South-East’s demands for greater inclusion and equity may not always align with the priorities of other regions. Bridging these differences requires a delicate balancing act, as well as a commitment to dialogue and compromise.
Challenges to Coalition-Building in Nigeria
While Bulama’s call for alliances is compelling, it is not without challenges. Nigeria’s political history is marked by instances of failed coalitions and betrayals, where agreements between regions or parties have unraveled due to mistrust or competing interests. The collapse of the alliance between the North and South-West in the early years of Nigeria’s independence, for example, contributed to the political instability that led to the 1966 coup and the subsequent civil war.
In the contemporary context, coalition-building is complicated by the rise of regional agitations and separatist movements. Groups such as the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in the South-East and the Yoruba Nation movement in the South-West have challenged the notion of a unified Nigerian state, advocating for self-determination. These movements reflect a broader sense of disillusionment with the Nigerian project, particularly among younger generations who feel marginalized by the political elite.
Additionally, the issue of zoning—the informal agreement to rotate power between the North and South—remains a contentious aspect of coalition-building. While zoning has helped maintain a semblance of balance, it has also been criticized for prioritizing regional considerations over merit and competence. Bulama’s remarks suggest that while zoning may continue to play a role, the focus should be on building inclusive coalitions that transcend regionalism.
The Path Forward: Building a United Nigeria
As Nigeria looks to the future, Bulama’s message serves as both a reminder and a call to action. The country’s diversity, while a source of strength, also presents significant challenges to political cohesion. The ability to forge alliances across regional, ethnic, and religious lines will be critical to addressing these challenges and ensuring the stability of Nigeria’s democracy.
For political parties, the task is to build platforms that are inclusive and representative of Nigeria’s diversity. This requires not only strategic alliances but also a commitment to addressing the structural inequalities that fuel regional and ethnic tensions. Issues such as equitable resource allocation, federal character in appointments, and inclusive economic policies must be at the forefront of any coalition-building effort.
For voters, Bulama’s remarks underscore the importance of looking beyond regional or ethnic affiliations when choosing leaders. The 2023 elections demonstrated the growing influence of issue-based voting, with candidates like Peter Obi of the Labour Party gaining traction among young and urban voters. This trend suggests that Nigerians are increasingly prioritizing competence and vision over parochial considerations—a development that bodes well for the future of coalition politics.
Conclusion
Waziri Bulama’s assertion that no single region can secure Nigeria’s presidency without alliances is a powerful reminder of the collaborative nature of Nigerian democracy. In a country as diverse as Nigeria, political success depends on the ability to build bridges across divides, uniting disparate groups around a common goal. The example of Muhammadu Buhari’s electoral journey illustrates the transformative power of such alliances, while also highlighting the challenges of maintaining them in a complex and dynamic political environment.
As Nigeria navigates its democratic journey, the principles of cooperation, inclusivity, and shared values will remain essential. Political leaders, parties, and citizens must work together to forge a united front that transcends regional and ethnic boundaries. Only through such unity can Nigeria address its pressing challenges and build a future that reflects the aspirations of all its people. Bulama’s words serve as both a guide and a challenge: in Nigeria’s pluralistic democracy, alliances are not just a strategy—they are the very foundation of progress.
