Abuja, Nigeria – August 30, 2025 – In a resolute push to bolster Nigeria’s economic fortunes, the Crude Oil Theft and Management Committee, chaired by Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma, has reaffirmed its commitment to achieving a national crude oil production target of three million barrels per day (bpd), as set by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Speaking to journalists in Abuja following a high-level, closed-door meeting with key stakeholders, including governors of oil-producing states, top officials of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), and representatives of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Uzodimma expressed optimism about the upward trajectory in crude oil production, attributing recent gains to collaborative efforts between industry players, security agencies, and state governments.
The meeting, held at the Imo State Government Lodge in Abuja, was convened to provide an update to the National Economic Council (NEC) on the activities of the sub-committee on crude oil theft and prevention. Uzodimma, who also chairs the NEC’s Crude Oil Theft and Management Committee, highlighted that the country’s oil production figures are showing promising signs of improvement, a development he credits to the concerted efforts of multiple stakeholders. “Only yesterday, the National Economic Council requested an update from the sub-committee on crude oil theft and prevention,” Uzodimma noted. “During the meeting, we observed an encouraging upward trend in crude oil production, which we attribute to the collective efforts of industry management, security agencies, and state-level actors.”
A Strategic Partnership to Combat Oil Theft
The Crude Oil Theft and Management Committee, reconstituted in late 2023 under Uzodimma’s leadership, comprises a diverse group of stakeholders, including governors from all geopolitical zones, federal ministers, the Central Bank Governor, and service chiefs. The committee’s primary mandate is to curb the rampant oil theft that has historically crippled Nigeria’s oil output, sometimes reducing production to as low as 20-30% of capacity. This systemic issue has cost the nation billions in lost revenue, exacerbating economic challenges such as inflation and naira depreciation. Recent data from the NNPCL indicates that Nigeria is now nearing 100% utilization of its production capacity, a significant leap from previous lows, thanks to enhanced security measures and strategic collaborations.
Uzodimma emphasized the pivotal role of the NNPCL in this endeavor. “We are satisfied with the presentations and the current work plan of the NNPCL,” he said. “The committee plans to engage further with the management to align on strategies that will help Nigeria meet its production target.” The governor lauded the leadership of the NNPCL, particularly Group Chief Executive Officer Bayo Ojulari, for implementing reforms that have begun to yield tangible results. The meeting also included briefings from the new leadership of the NUPRC, which oversees upstream petroleum operations, further aligning regulatory and operational strategies to support the production goal.
Nigeria’s Oil Production: A Historical Context
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer and the world’s 12th largest, has long grappled with production challenges despite its vast reserves, estimated at 37.5 billion barrels of crude oil and 209.26 trillion cubic feet of gas as of January 2024. The oil and gas sector remains the backbone of the Nigerian economy, accounting for over 65% of government revenue and more than 85% of total exports. However, oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and illegal refining have significantly hampered output. In 2022, production plummeted to a low of 937,766 bpd, with condensate included, due to these illicit activities.
Efforts to reverse this decline have gained momentum in recent years. By July 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production had risen to 1.71 million bpd, comprising 1.507 million bpd of crude oil and 204,864 bpd of condensates, marking a 9.9% year-on-year increase from 1.56 million bpd in July 2024. This resurgence follows sustained military and security operations, including the launch of Operation Delta Sanity (OPDS) in January 2024, which has significantly curtailed oil theft and vandalism. The second phase of OPDS, launched in Port Harcourt in August 2025, has further bolstered these efforts with the deployment of armed drones, attack helicopters, and enhanced intelligence capabilities.
Chief of Naval Staff Emmanuel Ogalla, speaking at the OPDS II launch, expressed confidence in surpassing the 3 million bpd target. “If you look at where we were last year, when we launched this operation, we were about 1.4 million bpd. We have now gone to 1.8 million. I believe that with all the assets we are bringing on board, we are definitely going to meet that target and surpass it,” Ogalla said. The Nigerian Navy’s collaboration with other security agencies has been instrumental in protecting critical oil infrastructure, such as the Trans Niger Pipeline, which has faced persistent sabotage.
Economic Implications of Increased Production
The push for 3 million bpd is not merely a production target but a critical step toward economic recovery. Oil theft has cost Nigeria an estimated $41.9 billion between 2009 and 2018, with ongoing losses contributing to fiscal deficits and currency depreciation. The recent uptick in production to 1.8 million bpd in August 2025 has already bolstered the nation’s external reserves, which surged above $41 billion, providing a buffer against naira depreciation. A stable and increased oil output is expected to enhance government revenue, enabling greater allocations to states and local governments for development projects.
Uzodimma underscored the broader economic benefits, stating, “Our goal is to ensure the country produces at least three million barrels of crude oil per day, in line with the target set by President Bola Tinubu.” He praised Tinubu’s leadership and recent reforms in the oil and gas sector, including the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021, which has attracted over $17 billion in upstream investment commitments between 2023 and 2025. These reforms have also encouraged renewed participation from international oil companies like Shell and TotalEnergies, as well as indigenous operators.
Challenges and the Road Ahead
Despite the progress, significant challenges remain. The Trans Niger Pipeline, a critical artery for oil transport, continues to face sabotage, with criminals siphoning crude through illegal connections. In 2023, the NNPCL reported 131 crude oil theft incidents in a single week, including 24 illegal connections, 43 illegal refineries, and 19 pipeline vandalism acts. The involvement of international syndicates, exploiting security gaps, adds complexity to the issue. Bayo Ojulari, at the Africa Chiefs of Defence Staff Conference in Abuja, highlighted the global nature of the problem, noting that “crude theft and its attendant illegal activities are by no means a purely localized occurrence; rather, these operations involve specialized international syndicates.”
To address these challenges, the committee is focusing on prevention, data collection, and enforcement of industry discipline. The Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Measurement Regulations, 2023, aim to close metering gaps in upstream operations, ensuring accurate measurement of petroleum produced and calculating revenue owed to the government. Additionally, pipeline surveillance contracts, such as the N48 billion annual deal awarded to Tantita Security Services Limited in 2022, have yielded results, with the recovery of millions of liters of stolen crude and the dismantling of illegal refining sites.
However, controversies surrounding these contracts, particularly the involvement of former militants like Government Ekpemupolo (Tompolo), have raised questions about transparency and efficacy. Critics argue that the same individuals once involved in pipeline vandalism are now tasked with protecting them, creating potential conflicts of interest. Nevertheless, the tangible improvements in pipeline integrity—now nearing 100% crude oil receipt compared to 20-30% in previous years—suggest that these measures are having an impact.
Stakeholder Collaboration and State Involvement
The closed-door meeting in Abuja underscored the importance of collaboration among federal, state, and industry stakeholders. Governors from oil-producing states, including Edo’s Monday Okpebholo, Cross River’s Bassey Otu, and Yobe’s Mai Bala Buni, attended the meeting, alongside federal ministers like Atiku Bagudu of Budget and Economic Planning. Uzodimma emphasized the role of state-level actors in supporting security efforts and community engagement to curb oil theft. “The collaborative efforts of industry management, security agencies, and state-level actors are driving this upward trend,” he said.
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, echoed this sentiment at the launch of OPDS II, calling on security agencies, maritime contractors, traditional rulers, and local youths to support the Nigerian Navy’s efforts. Lokpobiri highlighted the socioeconomic implications of oil theft, noting that curbing it would not only boost revenue but also improve livelihoods in oil-producing communities, which have long suffered from environmental degradation and economic disparity.
Environmental and Social Considerations
Oil theft and illegal refining have not only economic but also severe environmental consequences. The Niger Delta, where most of Nigeria’s oil is produced, has faced decades of pollution from oil spills, illegal refining, and pipeline vandalism, devastating local ecosystems and livelihoods. The 1998 Jesse pipeline explosion, which killed over 1,000 people collecting fuel from a ruptured pipeline, remains a stark reminder of the human cost of these activities. Uzodimma’s committee is working to address these issues by promoting community buy-in and ensuring that oil-producing states benefit from increased production.
The committee’s efforts align with broader reforms under the PIA, which seeks to improve transparency, attract investment, and ensure equitable distribution of oil revenues. However, the persistent poverty in oil-producing communities, contrasted with the wealth of oil companies, continues to fuel resentment and illegal activities. Uzodimma’s call for state government support aims to bridge this gap by fostering local participation in security and economic initiatives.
Looking Forward: A Path to 3 Million BPD
As Nigeria strives to meet its 3 million bpd target, the Crude Oil Theft and Management Committee’s work remains critical. Uzodimma’s leadership, combined with the NNPCL’s operational expertise and the NUPRC’s regulatory oversight, forms a robust framework for achieving this goal. The committee plans to continue engaging with stakeholders to refine strategies, enhance security, and leverage technological advancements like drones and digital metering to combat theft.
President Tinubu’s administration has set an ambitious timeline, with the 3 million bpd target slated for 2025. The recent production increase to 1.8 million bpd, coupled with improved pipeline integrity and foreign investment, suggests that Nigeria is on the right track. However, sustained efforts are needed to address systemic challenges, including corruption, international smuggling networks, and community disenfranchisement.
Uzodimma remains optimistic, stating, “Stakeholders view the partnership as a critical step toward economic recovery, with the committee’s efforts poised to make crude oil theft a thing of the past.” As Nigeria prepares for OPEC quota negotiations in November 2025, the success of these initiatives will be crucial in securing higher allocations and reinforcing Nigeria’s position as Africa’s leading oil producer.
In conclusion, the Crude Oil Theft and Management Committee, in collaboration with the NNPCL and other stakeholders, is driving a transformative agenda to boost Nigeria’s crude oil production to 3 million bpd. By addressing oil theft, enhancing security, and implementing regulatory reforms, the committee is laying the foundation for economic stability and growth. The journey is fraught with challenges, but the progress made thus far offers hope for a brighter future for Nigeria’s oil industry and its people.
