Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, Osun State has been a battleground for the country’s two political behemoths: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). These parties have alternated control of the state’s governance, shaping its political trajectory through a mix of strategic maneuvering, grassroots mobilization, and occasional miscalculations. As the 2026 governorship election looms on the horizon, both parties find themselves grappling with internal divisions and external pressures that could determine who holds the reins of power in Osun. Meanwhile, the emergence of a third force and the fallout from high-profile defections have added layers of complexity to an already volatile political landscape.
The Defectors’ Dilemma: A Misstep with Lasting Consequences
In a move that was expected to tilt the political scales in Osun, four federal lawmakers defected from the PDP to the APC, banking on speculation that Governor Ademola Nurudeen Adeleke was poised to join the ruling party at the federal level. The defectors—Senator Francis Fadahunsi (Osun East), Senator Olubiyi Fadeyi (Osun Central), Wole Oke (Obokun/Oriade Federal Constituency), Omirin Olusanya (Atakumosa East/West and Ilesa East/West Federal Constituency), and Taofeek Ajilesoro (Ife Central/East/North/South)—cited irreconcilable differences with the PDP leadership as their reason for leaving. However, months after their defection, it has become clear that their gamble has backfired, leaving them politically adrift in a party that offers little warmth to newcomers.
The defectors’ decision was rooted in the belief that aligning with the APC would secure their political futures, particularly in light of Governor Adeleke’s rumored defection. Yet, this assumption has proven to be a grave miscalculation. Within the APC, the defectors have struggled to gain acceptance among the party’s entrenched powerbrokers, often referred to as “landlords,” who are fiercely protective of their influence and electoral ambitions. These APC stalwarts, many of whom are eyeing senatorial and other elective positions in 2027, have made it clear that there will be no automatic tickets for the newcomers. The defectors now face an uphill battle to secure their political relevance, with their prospects of returning to the National Assembly looking increasingly uncertain.
Compounding their woes, the defectors have failed to carry their constituents with them to the APC. In Osun, grassroots support is a critical currency, and the lawmakers’ decision to abandon the PDP has been met with resistance from their voter base. To make matters worse, several of their legislative aides have resigned, citing loyalty to the PDP, which remains the ruling party in the state. This mass exodus of support has left the defectors politically isolated, with their influence waning in their constituencies.
The situation grew even more precarious when prominent APC figures publicly debunked speculations about Governor Adeleke’s potential defection. Without Adeleke’s crossover to bolster their position, the defectors now face a stark reality: their political survival hinges on the APC’s willingness to back their re-election bids in 2027. However, with the APC itself mired in internal divisions, this support is far from guaranteed. If Adeleke secures a second term in 2026, the defectors’ prospects could dim further, as they may find themselves caught between a resurgent PDP and a fractious APC.
Historical Parallels: Lessons from Lagos
Political analysts in Osun have drawn parallels between the defectors’ predicament and the experiences of Senators Adeseye Ogunlewe and Musiliu Obanikoro, who defected from the Alliance for Democracy (AD) to the PDP in Lagos between 2003 and 2007. In Lagos, the political machine led by Bola Tinubu proved unforgiving to defectors, who struggled to regain their footing in their new party. Ogunlewe and Obanikoro, despite their prominence, found themselves sidelined as Tinubu’s influence dominated the state’s political landscape. In Osun, the defectors risk a similar fate unless they can navigate the APC’s complex internal dynamics or capitalize on a potential stumble by Governor Adeleke.
The comparison to Lagos underscores a broader truth about Nigerian politics: defections, while common, are fraught with risks. For the Osun lawmakers, the decision to leave the PDP may have seemed like a strategic move at the time, but it has exposed them to the harsh realities of political realignment. Without a strong grassroots base or the backing of key APC figures, their political futures hang in the balance.
PDP’s Internal Struggles: A House Divided?
While the APC grapples with the fallout of its defectors, the PDP is not immune to its own internal challenges. In Ife Federal Constituency, a recent crisis saw party leaders pass a vote of no confidence in Deputy Governor Kola Adewusi, former National Secretary Prof. Wale Oladipo, and Ife-East PDP chairman Makinde Olasunkanmi. The accusations centered on alleged anti-party activities, including fraternizing with the defected lawmakers, which party stalwarts viewed as a betrayal of PDP’s interests.
A communiqué signed by key PDP figures, including commissioners and special advisers, condemned the actions of Adewusi, Oladipo, and Olasunkanmi, accusing them of undermining the party’s unity. However, the crisis was swiftly resolved, with the PDP leadership working to mend the rift and present a united front. This resolution highlights the party’s determination to maintain cohesion as it prepares for the 2026 election, but it also underscores the fragility of its internal alliances. The PDP’s ability to manage these tensions will be critical to its success in the upcoming polls.
The Rise of a Third Force: ADC’s Emerging Influence
Amid the turmoil within the PDP and APC, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has begun to position itself as a potential third force in Osun’s political landscape. Under the influence of former governor Rauf Aregbesola, the ADC is gaining traction, particularly among voters disillusioned with the two dominant parties. While still in its early stages, the ADC’s emergence signals a shift in Osun’s political dynamics, offering an alternative to the PDP-APC duopoly that has defined the state’s politics for decades.
For now, the ADC’s influence remains limited, and its organizational structure is still taking shape. However, Aregbesola’s political clout and grassroots appeal could make the ADC a formidable contender in 2026, particularly if the PDP and APC fail to resolve their internal divisions. Other smaller parties in Osun, such as the Labour Party and the New Nigeria People’s Party, have yet to make a significant impact, with their presence largely confined to campaign posters and billboards.
Adeleke’s Political Renaissance: From “Dancing Senator” to People’s Champion
At the heart of Osun’s political drama is Governor Ademola Nurudeen Adeleke, whose transformation from a flamboyant senator to a formidable political force has reshaped the state’s landscape. Once derided as the “dancing senator” for his public displays of dance, Adeleke has turned his charisma into a powerful political asset. Through a combination of civil service reforms, youth empowerment programs, women-focused initiatives, and infrastructure development, he has won the hearts of many Osun residents.
Adeleke’s governance style is characterized by his ability to connect with ordinary citizens, a stark contrast to his predecessor, Gboyega Oyetola, who was often perceived as aloof and disconnected. His administration’s focus on clearing salary arrears, restoring welfare benefits, and engaging with rural communities through cultural festivals and cooperatives has cemented his popularity. These efforts have earned him endorsements from diverse groups, including artisans, market traders, labor unions, and student movements.
Even when rumors of Adeleke’s potential defection to the APC surfaced, his supporters, particularly civil servants, expressed strong opposition. Sources confirmed that President Bola Tinubu met with Adeleke, his brother Deji, and music star Davido in Lagos to discuss a possible crossover. However, the plan was thwarted by powerful APC figures in Osun, who feared that Adeleke’s entry would disrupt their control and jeopardize their own ambitions. As one APC chieftain lamented, “It would have been a masterstroke if Adeleke had joined us. But selfish interests killed the idea. Now, defeating him is nearly impossible.”
APC’s Fractured Unity: A Party in Disarray
While Adeleke consolidates his grip on Osun, the APC remains mired in disunity, still reeling from its 2022 governorship election defeat. Insiders attribute the loss to complacency under Oyetola’s leadership, which failed to maintain the party’s grassroots momentum. Today, the APC is splintered into factions loyal to various heavyweights, each vying for control of the party’s machinery ahead of 2026.
Former Deputy Governor Iyiola Omisore has declared his interest in the APC’s governorship ticket, while NIWA Managing Director Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO), a Tinubu loyalist, is also positioning himself for the race. However, Omisore’s candidacy has sparked discontent among some APC leaders, particularly in Osun West, who view his entry as a threat to their own aspirations. Grassroots members have also voiced frustration, accusing the party’s leadership of prioritizing personal agendas over unity and cohesion.
This internal strife has weakened the APC’s ability to mount a credible challenge to Adeleke and the PDP. The defectors, in particular, find themselves caught in the crossfire of these factional battles, with their integration into the party hampered by distrust and competing interests. Whispers within the APC suggest that the defectors may be denied tickets in 2027, as loyalists demand that “true members” be prioritized over those perceived as opportunistic.
The Tinubu Factor: A Double-Edged Sword
President Bola Tinubu’s influence was expected to bolster the APC’s fortunes in Osun, given his status as a political titan and the party’s national leader. However, Adeleke’s grassroots appeal and strategic distancing from unpopular federal policies—such as subsidy removal, new taxes, and inflation—have neutralized this advantage. While Tinubu’s presidency has provided the APC with federal backing, it has also made the party vulnerable to public discontent over economic hardships.
For Adeleke, this has been a boon. By emphasizing his administration’s local achievements and avoiding entanglement with federal policies, he has maintained a strong connection with Osun’s electorate. His ability to navigate these challenges has made him a formidable opponent, even as the APC struggles to regain its footing.
The Defectors’ Grim Outlook
For the four defected lawmakers, the future looks increasingly bleak. Stripped of the PDP’s grassroots support and struggling to find a place in the APC’s divided house, they are fighting for political survival. The party’s internal dynamics, coupled with the lack of constituent backing, have left them vulnerable. As the 2026 election approaches, their prospects of securing APC tickets in 2027 appear slim, with loyalists advocating for candidates who have remained steadfast in the party.
The defectors’ plight serves as a cautionary tale about the risks of political opportunism in Nigeria’s volatile landscape. Without a clear path to relevance in their new party, they may find themselves sidelined, much like their counterparts in Lagos years ago.
Conclusion: A Shifting Political Terrain
As Osun heads toward the 2026 governorship election, the state’s political landscape is marked by uncertainty and opportunity. Governor Adeleke’s ability to consolidate PDP’s structure and connect with the electorate has positioned him as a formidable force, while the APC struggles to overcome its internal divisions and rebuild its grassroots base. The emergence of the ADC as a potential third force adds another layer of intrigue, challenging the dominance of the two major parties.
For the defectors, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. Their decision to leave the PDP has left them politically stranded, and their survival will depend on their ability to navigate the APC’s complex dynamics. Meanwhile, Adeleke’s blend of charisma, governance, and grassroots engagement has made him a towering figure in Osun, one whose influence will likely shape the state’s political future.
As the countdown to 2026 continues, all eyes will be on Osun, where personal ambitions, party loyalties, and the will of the electorate will collide in a high-stakes battle for power. The outcome of this contest will not only determine the state’s leadership but also serve as a litmus test for Nigeria’s broader political dynamics.
