In a bold move that underscores the escalating tensions along NATO’s eastern flank, Poland’s Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, has called on the alliance to consider implementing a limited no-fly zone over Ukraine. This proposal comes in the wake of repeated violations of Polish airspace by Russian drones, raising serious concerns about the safety of civilians in border regions and the potential for broader conflict spillover. Sikorski’s suggestion, while cautious in scope, has reignited debates about NATO’s role in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the delicate balance between deterrence and escalation.
The Catalyst: Russian Drone Incursions into Polish Airspace
The immediate trigger for Sikorski’s proposal was a series of Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, with the most notable incident occurring on Wednesday, September 10, 2025. On that day, Polish authorities reported that 16 Russian drones had crossed into the country’s airspace, prompting a swift and coordinated response from NATO forces. Polish and Dutch fighter jets, supported by Italian, German, and other multinational NATO air units, were scrambled to intercept and neutralize the drones. While the drones were determined to be unarmed, their presence over Polish territory caused significant alarm, particularly as debris from the downed drones damaged homes in the border town of Wyryki.
Local firefighters were quickly deployed to repair the affected homes, but the incident left a lasting impression on Polish authorities and civilians alike. The breach of Polish airspace was not an isolated event; just days later, on Saturday, September 13, 2025, Romania reported a similar violation when a Russian drone entered its airspace, forcing Romanian fighter jets to scramble in response. These incidents have highlighted the growing threat of drone warfare spilling over from the conflict in Ukraine into NATO member states, raising questions about the alliance’s preparedness and response mechanisms.
The Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement denying any deliberate targeting of Polish territory. According to Moscow, its drones, which have a maximum operational range of 700 kilometers (approximately 435 miles), were intended solely for Ukrainian targets. The ministry suggested that any drones crossing into Polish airspace did so either accidentally or due to factors beyond the technical specifications of the equipment. However, these explanations have done little to assuage concerns in Warsaw and other NATO capitals, where the incidents are seen as part of a broader pattern of Russian provocations.
Sikorski’s Proposal: A Limited No-Fly Zone
In an interview with Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Foreign Minister Sikorski articulated the need for a more proactive NATO response to protect both Polish territory and civilians in border areas. He argued that a limited no-fly zone over Ukraine, focused specifically on intercepting drones approaching NATO borders, could significantly enhance the alliance’s ability to safeguard its members. “Protection for our population – for example, from falling debris – would naturally be greater if we could combat drones and other flying objects beyond our national territory,” Sikorski stated.
Unlike earlier proposals for a comprehensive no-fly zone over Ukraine, which were floated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in 2022, Sikorski’s plan is notably narrower in scope. In the early months of Russia’s invasion, Zelensky repeatedly urged NATO to establish a no-fly zone to protect Ukrainian cities from Russian airstrikes. However, the alliance, led by the United States, rejected these calls due to concerns that such a measure would lead to direct confrontations with Russian combat aircraft, potentially escalating the conflict into a broader NATO-Russia war. Sikorski’s proposal, by contrast, focuses specifically on drones rather than manned aircraft, and it appears to be limited to areas near NATO’s borders rather than deep within Ukrainian territory.
Sikorski emphasized that any decision to implement such a no-fly zone would likely depend on a formal request from Ukraine. “If you ask me personally, we should consider it,” he said, signaling his openness to the idea while acknowledging that it would require broader consensus within NATO. The proposal reflects Poland’s growing assertiveness within the alliance, as well as its unique position as a frontline state in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Poland has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters since the onset of Russia’s invasion, providing military aid, hosting millions of Ukrainian refugees, and advocating for stronger NATO responses to Russian aggression.
NATO’s Response: The “Eastern Sentry” Mission
The drone incursions prompted an immediate and robust response from NATO, which launched a joint air defense mission codenamed “Eastern Sentry” to bolster security over Poland. The mission involves a multinational coalition of NATO air forces, including Polish, Dutch, Italian, and German units, working together to monitor and protect Polish airspace. On Monday, September 15, 2025, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence announced that Royal Air Force jets would join the operation, underscoring Britain’s “unshakeable” commitment to defending NATO territory.
The “Eastern Sentry” mission is a clear signal of NATO’s determination to counter Russian provocations and reassure its eastern members. It also reflects the alliance’s recognition of the evolving nature of the threat posed by drone warfare. Unlike traditional manned aircraft, drones are often smaller, harder to detect, and capable of operating at low altitudes, making them a unique challenge for air defense systems. The incidents in Poland and Romania have underscored the need for NATO to adapt its strategies to address this emerging threat.
The Broader Context: NATO’s Delicate Balancing Act
Sikorski’s proposal and the recent drone incursions highlight the delicate balancing act facing NATO as it navigates the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On one hand, the alliance is committed to defending its member states and deterring Russian aggression. Poland, as a key NATO member and a neighbor of both Ukraine and Russia’s ally Belarus, is particularly vulnerable to spillover from the conflict. The damage caused by drone debris in Wyryki serves as a stark reminder of the risks faced by civilians in border areas, even in countries not directly involved in the fighting.
On the other hand, NATO remains wary of actions that could escalate the conflict and draw the alliance into direct confrontation with Russia. A no-fly zone, even a limited one, would require NATO forces to operate in Ukrainian airspace, potentially bringing them into contact with Russian drones or aircraft. Such encounters could lead to miscalculations or unintended escalations, particularly given the already heightened tensions between NATO and Russia.
The debate over a no-fly zone also raises questions about the alliance’s cohesion. While Poland and other eastern NATO members, such as the Baltic states, have consistently advocated for a stronger stance against Russia, other members, including the United States and Germany, have been more cautious. The rejection of Zelensky’s 2022 proposal for a no-fly zone reflected these divisions, with Western leaders prioritizing de-escalation over direct intervention. Sikorski’s more limited proposal may find greater support, particularly as it focuses on protecting NATO territory rather than engaging deeply in the Ukraine conflict. However, achieving consensus among the alliance’s 32 member states will likely prove challenging.
Regional Implications: Romania and Beyond
The drone incursion into Romania on September 13 further underscores the regional dimensions of the issue. Like Poland, Romania shares a border with Ukraine and has faced similar challenges related to the spillover of the conflict. The scrambling of Romanian fighter jets in response to the breach highlights the growing sense of unease among NATO’s eastern members, who feel increasingly exposed to the risks of drone warfare. These incidents have also fueled calls for greater investment in air defense systems and enhanced coordination among NATO allies.
The broader implications of these events extend beyond Poland and Romania. The use of drones in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has transformed modern warfare, with both sides deploying unmanned systems for reconnaissance, surveillance, and attacks. The ability of drones to cross international borders, whether intentionally or accidentally, poses a new challenge for NATO’s defense planners. The alliance will need to develop more robust mechanisms for detecting, tracking, and neutralizing drones, as well as clearer protocols for responding to airspace violations.
Russia’s Perspective and the Risk of Escalation
From Russia’s perspective, the drone incursions are likely seen as a byproduct of its military operations in Ukraine rather than a deliberate attempt to provoke NATO. The Russian Ministry of Defense’s claim that its drones were not targeting Poland aligns with Moscow’s broader narrative of avoiding direct confrontation with the alliance. However, the incidents have nonetheless heightened tensions, particularly as they come amid ongoing Russian efforts to test NATO’s resolve along its eastern borders.
Russia’s denial of intent does little to mitigate the risks of escalation. Even accidental violations of NATO airspace could trigger a strong response from the alliance, particularly if they result in civilian casualties or significant damage. The debris from downed drones in Poland serves as a reminder that even unarmed drones can pose a threat, whether through physical damage or the psychological impact on border communities.
The Path Forward: Challenges and Opportunities
Sikorski’s proposal for a limited no-fly zone represents a potential opportunity for NATO to strengthen its deterrence posture while addressing the immediate threat posed by Russian drones. By focusing on intercepting drones in Ukrainian airspace near NATO borders, the alliance could reduce the risk of spillover incidents without engaging directly with Russian manned aircraft. Such a measure could also reassure Poland and other eastern members, reinforcing NATO’s commitment to their security.
However, implementing a no-fly zone, even a limited one, would face significant hurdles. First, it would require Ukraine’s formal request and approval, which could complicate Kyiv’s diplomatic relations with NATO members hesitant to escalate the conflict. Second, it would necessitate careful coordination among NATO allies to ensure that any operations in Ukrainian airspace are clearly defined and limited in scope. Finally, the alliance would need to prepare for the possibility of Russian retaliation, whether through increased drone activity or other forms of provocation.
Beyond the no-fly zone debate, the recent incidents highlight the need for NATO to invest in advanced air defense systems capable of countering the growing drone threat. Technologies such as radar systems optimized for detecting low-flying drones, electronic warfare capabilities, and rapid-response interceptors will be critical to addressing this challenge. The “Eastern Sentry” mission is a step in the right direction, but sustained investment and coordination will be necessary to ensure the alliance’s long-term preparedness.
Conclusion
The repeated incursions of Russian drones into Polish and Romanian airspace have brought the Russia-Ukraine conflict to NATO’s doorstep, forcing the alliance to confront difficult questions about its role and responsibilities. Foreign Minister Sikorski’s proposal for a limited no-fly zone over Ukraine reflects Poland’s determination to protect its citizens and territory while pushing for a more proactive NATO response. While the idea has sparked renewed debate, it also underscores the broader challenges facing the alliance as it seeks to balance deterrence, defense, and the risk of escalation.
As NATO considers its next steps, the incidents in Poland and Romania serve as a stark reminder of the evolving nature of modern warfare and the need for adaptive strategies. Whether the alliance ultimately adopts Sikorski’s proposal or pursues alternative measures, the drone incursions have made it clear that the conflict in Ukraine is no longer confined to its borders. For NATO, the stakes are high, and the path forward will require careful deliberation, unity, and resolve.
