On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a strong statement of support for the Philippines, condemning what he described as China’s “destabilizing plans” for Scarborough Shoal, a contested atoll in the South China Sea. Rubio’s remarks come in response to China’s recent announcement to designate the shoal as a nature preserve, a move that has raised concerns among Filipino fishermen and regional stakeholders about restricted access to a vital fishing ground. The announcement underscores the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea, a critical maritime region that serves as a flashpoint for competing territorial claims and international rivalries.
China’s Nature Preserve Plan: A Strategic Maneuver?
Scarborough Shoal, a small but strategically significant atoll located approximately 120 nautical miles from the Philippine province of Zambales, has been at the center of a protracted dispute between China and the Philippines. Despite lying within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), as defined under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the shoal has been under de facto Chinese control since 2012. China’s claim to the area is part of its broader assertion of sovereignty over nearly the entire South China Sea, a resource-rich waterway that facilitates over $3 trillion in global trade annually. This expansive claim overlaps with the EEZs of several Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam, leading to persistent regional tensions.
Rubio’s statement criticized China’s plan to designate Scarborough Shoal as a nature reserve, calling it “yet another coercive attempt to advance sweeping territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea at the expense of its neighbors.” The proposed designation has sparked fears among Filipino fishermen, who rely on the shoal’s abundant marine resources for their livelihoods. The constant presence of Chinese coast guard vessels and maritime militia in the area already limits access for Filipino fishing boats, and a formal nature preserve could further restrict their operations under the guise of environmental protection. Analysts suggest that China’s move may be less about conservation and more about consolidating control over disputed waters, a tactic it has employed elsewhere in the region, such as with the construction of artificial islands and military outposts in the Spratly Islands.
The South China Sea is one of the world’s most contested maritime regions, not only due to its economic significance but also because of its strategic importance. The waterway serves as a critical route for global shipping, including energy supplies, and is believed to hold significant reserves of oil, natural gas, and fisheries. China’s actions, including the militarization of reefs and the deployment of coast guard vessels to patrol disputed areas, have been viewed as efforts to assert dominance and alter the status quo in its favor. The Scarborough Shoal dispute is emblematic of these broader dynamics, with implications for regional security and international maritime law.
U.S.-Philippines Alliance: A Counterweight to China’s Ambitions
Rubio’s statement reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to its longstanding alliance with the Philippines, a key partner in the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. and the Philippines are bound by the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, which obligates both nations to support each other in the event of an armed attack in the Pacific. While the treaty’s applicability to disputes in the South China Sea has been a subject of debate, successive U.S. administrations have emphasized their commitment to defending the Philippines’ rights within its EEZ. Rubio’s remarks signal that the Biden administration views China’s actions at Scarborough Shoal as a challenge not only to the Philippines but also to the rules-based international order.
In his statement, Rubio called on China to respect the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which invalidated China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea and affirmed the Philippines’ rights to fish and exploit resources within its EEZ, including at Scarborough Shoal. The tribunal’s unanimous decision found that China had unlawfully prevented Filipino fishermen from engaging in traditional fishing activities at the shoal, a practice that has sustained coastal communities for generations. However, China has consistently rejected the ruling, declaring it “null and void” and continuing to assert control over the area through its maritime presence.
The U.S. has sought to counter China’s actions through a combination of diplomatic pressure, military cooperation, and freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea. These operations, conducted by U.S. naval vessels, aim to challenge excessive maritime claims and uphold the principles of freedom of navigation and overflight under international law. The U.S. has also deepened its security cooperation with regional allies, including the Philippines, Japan, and Australia, to build a collective response to China’s assertiveness.
Joint Patrols and Regional Cooperation
In a related development, the Philippines announced on Saturday that it had conducted joint maritime exercises with the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force off the coast of Zambales province, near Scarborough Shoal. The exercises, which involved naval assets from the three countries, were described as a demonstration of their shared commitment to regional stability and the rules-based international order. While the Philippine government did not explicitly link the drills to the Scarborough Shoal dispute, the timing and location suggest a response to China’s recent actions.
Chinese state media outlet Global Times reported on Friday that the Philippines had engaged in a “joint patrol” in the South China Sea with “countries outside the region,” a likely reference to the U.S. and Japan. The report framed the patrols as a provocative move by Manila, accusing the Philippines of escalating tensions by aligning with external powers. China has repeatedly criticized the involvement of non-claimant states in South China Sea disputes, arguing that their presence complicates efforts to resolve conflicts through bilateral negotiations. However, the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations have welcomed the support of the U.S., Japan, and other partners as a means of balancing China’s overwhelming military and economic influence.
The joint exercises reflect a broader trend of enhanced security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, driven by shared concerns about China’s growing assertiveness. The Quad, a strategic dialogue comprising the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, has prioritized maritime security in the region, while ASEAN member states have sought to strengthen their collective stance through initiatives like the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. For the Philippines, these partnerships provide critical support in the face of China’s superior naval capabilities and persistent pressure in disputed waters.
The Human Cost: Filipino Fishermen Caught in the Crossfire
At the heart of the Scarborough Shoal dispute are the Filipino fishermen whose livelihoods depend on access to the atoll’s rich fishing grounds. For centuries, the shoal has been a traditional fishing area for coastal communities in Zambales and other parts of the Philippines. However, since China seized control of the shoal in 2012 following a tense standoff with the Philippine navy, Filipino fishermen have faced increasing restrictions. Chinese coast guard vessels and maritime militia boats regularly patrol the area, often intimidating or expelling Filipino fishermen who venture too close.
The proposed nature reserve designation has heightened fears among these communities that their access to the shoal will be further curtailed. Fishermen report that Chinese vessels have used water cannons, blocked their boats, and confiscated their catch in recent years, making it increasingly difficult to sustain their livelihoods. The economic impact is significant, as fishing is a primary source of income for many families in the region. Beyond the economic toll, the dispute has also taken a psychological toll, with fishermen describing feelings of helplessness and frustration in the face of China’s overwhelming presence.
The Philippines has sought to support its fishing communities through diplomatic protests and legal action, including the 2016 arbitral case. However, the lack of enforcement mechanisms for the tribunal’s ruling has limited its practical impact. Filipino fishermen continue to face harassment and exclusion from their traditional fishing grounds, prompting calls for stronger international support to uphold their rights under UNCLOS.
China’s Broader Strategy in the South China Sea
China’s actions at Scarborough Shoal are part of a broader strategy to assert dominance in the South China Sea, a region it views as integral to its national security and economic interests. Beijing’s “nine-dash line” claim, which encompasses nearly 90% of the South China Sea, has been a cornerstone of its maritime policy, despite its rejection by the 2016 arbitral ruling. To enforce this claim, China has pursued a multi-pronged approach, including the construction of artificial islands, the deployment of military assets, and the use of coast guard and militia vessels to assert control over disputed areas.
The designation of Scarborough Shoal as a nature preserve fits into this pattern of using environmental or administrative measures to legitimize territorial claims. Similar tactics have been employed in the Spratly Islands, where China has built and militarized artificial islands under the pretext of scientific research or environmental protection. These actions allow China to project power while avoiding direct military confrontation, a strategy often described as “gray zone” coercion. By framing its presence at Scarborough Shoal as an environmental initiative, China seeks to deflect criticism while tightening its grip on the area.
China’s actions have also strained its relations with Southeast Asian neighbors, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam, which have borne the brunt of its assertiveness. The Philippines has responded by strengthening its alliances with the U.S. and Japan, while Vietnam has pursued a mix of diplomatic engagement and military modernization. Both countries have called for a binding Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, a long-standing ASEAN initiative aimed at managing disputes and preventing escalation. However, negotiations with China on the COC have progressed slowly, with disagreements over its scope and enforceability.
Implications for Regional and Global Security
The Scarborough Shoal dispute has far-reaching implications for regional and global security. The South China Sea is a critical theater for great power competition, particularly between the U.S. and China. The U.S. views China’s actions as a challenge to the rules-based international order, which emphasizes the principles of freedom of navigation, respect for international law, and the peaceful resolution of disputes. By contrast, China perceives U.S. involvement in the region as an attempt to contain its rise and limit its influence in Asia.
The escalation of tensions over Scarborough Shoal could lead to miscalculations or unintended confrontations, particularly given the presence of naval and coast guard vessels from multiple countries in the region. A single incident, such as a collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels, could spiral into a broader conflict, drawing in the U.S. and other allies. To mitigate this risk, analysts have called for enhanced communication channels, confidence-building measures, and a renewed focus on diplomacy to manage disputes.
The dispute also highlights the challenges of enforcing international law in the face of a rising power like China, which has the economic and military clout to defy rulings like the 2016 arbitral decision. For smaller nations like the Philippines, alliances with the U.S. and other partners provide a critical counterweight, but they also carry the risk of entanglement in broader geopolitical rivalries. Balancing these dynamics will be a key challenge for Manila as it seeks to protect its interests in the South China Sea.
The Path Forward: Diplomacy or Confrontation?
As tensions over Scarborough Shoal continue to simmer, the path forward remains uncertain. The Philippines has signaled its intent to pursue a dual-track approach of diplomacy and deterrence, engaging in dialogue with China while strengthening its security partnerships. The recent joint exercises with the U.S. and Japan underscore this strategy, demonstrating Manila’s resolve to defend its maritime rights while avoiding direct confrontation.
For its part, China has shown little willingness to compromise on its claims in the South China Sea. Beijing has repeatedly called for bilateral negotiations to resolve disputes, a stance that critics argue favors China’s superior bargaining power. Meanwhile, the international community, including the U.S., Japan, and ASEAN, continues to advocate for a multilateral approach based on international law and regional cooperation.
The designation of Scarborough Shoal as a nature preserve could mark a new phase in the dispute, further complicating efforts to find a resolution. For Filipino fishermen, the stakes are immediate and personal, as their livelihoods hang in the balance. For the region and the world, the dispute is a test of whether the rules-based international order can withstand the pressures of great power competition and unilateral actions.
In conclusion, the U.S.’s reaffirmation of support for the Philippines, coupled with China’s provocative moves at Scarborough Shoal, underscores the complex and high-stakes nature of the South China Sea dispute. As the region navigates these challenges, the interplay of diplomacy, military posturing, and international law will shape the future of this critical maritime domain. For now, the international community watches closely, aware that the outcome of this dispute could have profound implications for global trade, security, and the principles that govern the world’s oceans.
