Public broadcaster RTVE first reported the development, confirming that Junts' leadership had unanimously agreed to transition into opposition, effectively ending a fragile pact that has defined the government's survival since the inconclusive July 2023 general election. Puigdemont, the fugitive former Catalan president who has lived in self-imposed exile in Belgium since fleeing Spain in 2017 to evade sedition charges, delivered the blow with characteristic defiance. "The Spanish government will not be able to resort to the investiture majority. It will have neither the budget nor the capacity to govern," he declared, his voice echoing the grievances of a movement that has long viewed Madrid's centralism as an existential threat to Catalan identity. Speaking to a room filled with journalists and party loyalists, Puigdemont – now a Member of the European Parliament – emphasized that Junts, which commands seven seats in Spain's 350-member Congress, would no longer lend its votes to any administration that "does not help Catalonia."
The announcement caps months of simmering tensions, exacerbated by judicial roadblocks and unfulfilled promises. At the heart of Junts' disillusionment is the partial implementation of the 2024 amnesty law, a cornerstone concession Sánchez offered to secure Junts' backing after the Socialists finished second in the 2023 polls with 121 seats – short of the 176 needed for a majority. The law, which pardoned hundreds of Catalan separatists involved in the 2017 unilateral independence declaration, was meant to clear the path for Puigdemont's return and normalize relations. Yet Spain's Supreme Court has repeatedly ruled that it does not cover embezzlement allegations against Puigdemont and several associates, stemming from claims they misused €1.6 million in public funds to bankroll the illicit referendum. Puigdemont, who led Catalonia's short-lived secession bid eight years ago – a crisis that triggered Spain's worst constitutional upheaval in decades – remains barred from Spanish soil, his arrest warrant upheld as recently as last month.
Compounding the amnesty frustrations are broader policy failures. Junts accuses the PSOE of dragging its feet on lobbying the European Union to grant official status to Catalan alongside the 24 recognized languages, a symbolic but potent demand for cultural recognition. Efforts stalled in September 2025 when the European Parliament postponed a vote on including Catalan, Basque, and Galician, citing procedural hurdles. Equally galling was Congress's rejection in July of a Junts-backed bill to devolve immigration enforcement powers to Catalonia, a measure aimed at allowing the region to tailor policies to its unique demographic pressures, including a surge in North African arrivals straining local resources. "There is no willingness on the part of the PSOE to comply with what has been promised in a timely and proper manner," Puigdemont lamented, alluding to 19 fruitless rounds of Swiss-mediated talks that Junts now deems a "historic" but futile acknowledgment of the Catalonia-Spain divide.
To formalize the rupture, Junts has launched an internal consultation among its roughly 6,000 members, running from Wednesday at 10 a.m. local time (0900 GMT) until Thursday at 6 p.m. (1700 GMT). The binary ballot poses a stark question: whether to ratify the shift to opposition and cease all cooperation with the PSOE. Party insiders predict overwhelming approval, given the grassroots fatigue with what they see as Madrid's bad faith. "We have given them many opportunities to change, and they have not," Puigdemont posted on X (formerly Twitter) post-conference, framing the PSOE as the "maximum responsible" for the breakdown.
Sánchez's response has been characteristically measured, downplaying the schism as one of the "ups and downs" inherent in coalition politics. Deputy Prime Minister María Jesús Montero, speaking on national television, reiterated Madrid's commitment to dialogue and highlighted achievements like enabling Catalan use in Congress – a first after decades of democratic rule – and partial power transfers. "We hope that Junts acts sensibly and thinks about the Catalan people," echoed Lluisa Moret Sabido, spokesperson for the PSOE's Catalan branch, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC). Yet beneath the optimism lies vulnerability: the coalition, comprising the PSOE and leftist Sumar alliance (with 31 seats), holds just 152 seats outright. Without Junts, Sánchez must court alternatives like the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC, 13 seats) – which has its own frosty relations with Madrid – or the more amenable Canarian Coalition (4 seats), all while fending off the center-right Popular Party (PP, 136 seats) and far-right Vox (33 seats), who salivate at the prospect of a no-confidence motion.
The timing amplifies the stakes. Spain is hurtling toward 2026 regional and national elections, with Sánchez's approval ratings hovering around 40% amid economic headwinds, including stubbornly high youth unemployment at 26% and inflation lingering above the eurozone average. The government has already prorogued its 2023 budget twice, bypassing parliamentary scrutiny altogether, a maneuver Sánchez insists won't derail his four-year term ending in 2027. But analysts warn that Junts' defection could force a third roll-over for 2026, stifling reforms on housing, green energy, and fiscal equalization – issues where Catalonia, contributing 19% of Spain's GDP despite comprising 16% of its population, demands a "singular financing" model akin to the Basque Country's. Political commentator Joan Faus of Reuters noted that while Junts has ruled out backing a PP-Vox censure motion – Puigdemont has no love for the right-wing nationalists who brand him a "fugitive" – the mere erosion of support invites chaos: "Sánchez can stay in power, but governing becomes an exercise in paralysis."
In Catalonia, reactions underscore the move's domestic calculus. President Salvador Illa, a Socialist leading a minority PSC-ERC-Comuns government since May 2024, urged "common sense," warning that toppling Sánchez would invite "regression" under a PP-Vox regime hostile to self-rule. Illa's administration, which wrested control from Junts' allies in the 2024 regional vote, views the split as having "no impact" on devolved matters like funding or commuter rail transfers, but privately frets over stalled national deals. ERC's Gabriel Rufián, a vocal Junts critic, accused Puigdemont of posturing to counter the rise of Aliança Catalana, a hardline, Islamophobic splinter group polling at 7% and siphoning independence voters frustrated with compromise. Comuns leader David Cid lambasted Junts for prioritizing "party over country," arguing the rupture edges Spain toward unviability in Congress.
From Brussels, where Puigdemont addressed MEPs last week on EU linguistic rights, the crisis resonates beyond Spain's borders. The European Parliament's language snub has fueled accusations of Madrid's half-hearted advocacy, while the amnesty's uneven application raises questions about judicial independence in EU member states. As one EU diplomat quipped anonymously, "Catalonia's woes are Spain's, but the echoes reach Strasbourg – this isn't just about budgets; it's about whether peripheral voices get heard in a centralized union."
For Sánchez, the path forward is treacherous. Culture Minister Ernest Urtasun of Sumar pledged to press ahead with the 2026 budget, but without Junts, passage hinges on ERC buy-in or abstentions from the abstention-prone PNV (Basque nationalists, 5 seats). Emiliano García-Page, PSOE heavyweight and Castilla-La Mancha president, called Puigdemont a "prisoner" of his own deal-making, predicting a "very complicated" road to 2027. Yet the premier's resilience – forged in the 2017 crisis and 2023's brinkmanship – suggests he won't yield easily. As Montero put it, "All relationships have ups and downs," but this downswing could redefine Spain's democracy, testing whether dialogue can mend a rift as old as the 1978 Constitution itself.
The consultation's outcome, expected Friday, will crystallize Junts' stance, but the damage is done: a government once buoyed by Catalan votes now teeters on the brink, with Catalonia's independence flame burning brighter amid the fallout. As Puigdemont concluded, "We are not committed to helping Spanish stability" – a line that, in Madrid's halls of power, lands like a thunderclap.
