Yaoundé, Cameroon – October 11, 2025 – As the sun rises over the bustling markets of Yaoundé and the misty highlands of Bamenda, Cameroon stands on the precipice of a pivotal moment. Tomorrow, October 12, more than 8.2 million registered voters will head to the polls in a presidential election that could extend President Paul Biya's ironclad rule to nearly five decades – or, in a seismic shift, usher in the political transformation long demanded by a frustrated populace. At 92, Biya, the world's oldest serving head of state, is seeking an unprecedented eighth term, a bid that has ignited fierce debates about democracy, succession, and the nation's future.
The election unfolds against a tapestry of profound challenges: a separatist insurgency in the English-speaking Northwest and Southwest regions that has claimed over 6,500 lives since 2017; economic stagnation exacerbated by corruption and global commodity fluctuations; and a youth bulge where half the population under 20 grapples with unemployment rates hovering around 4%, though informal sector underemployment affects nearly 70% of young people. Biya's ruling Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) touts stability and incremental growth, projecting a GDP expansion of 4.1% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025 driven by liquefied natural gas and mining. Yet, opposition voices and civil society decry a "democratic illusion," pointing to the barring of Biya's strongest challenger, Maurice Kamto, and a fragmented field of 11 other candidates as evidence of a rigged system.
In the capital's vibrant Etoudi Palace neighborhood, where Biya's motorcades once rolled with fanfare, the air now hums with cautious optimism and simmering discontent. "We've known only one face in the Élysée since before I was born," says 28-year-old market trader Aisha Ngono, weaving baskets under the shade of a mango tree. "Biya built roads, yes, but who drives on them? The elite. The young want jobs, not posters." Her words echo a nationwide sentiment: a 2025 Afrobarometer survey revealed 62% of Cameroonians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, up from 48% in 2018. With median age at 19 and youth unemployment fueling urban migration, the election is less a contest of ideas and more a referendum on endurance.
The Incumbent's Fortress: Biya's Enduring Legacy and Controversial Longevity
Paul Biya's ascent to power reads like a chapter from a bygone era of African independence politics. Born in 1933 in the village of Mvomeka'a in southern Cameroon, Biya – an ethnic Beti – rose through the ranks under the shadow of the nation's first president, Ahmadou Ahidjo. Educated in France at the Lycée Louis-le-Grand and the Institut des Hautes Études d'Outre-Mer, Biya returned to serve as prime minister in 1975, a role that positioned him as Ahidjo's heir apparent. When Ahidjo resigned in 1982 citing health reasons, Biya assumed the presidency unopposed, inheriting a one-party state dominated by the Cameroon National Union (CNU).
That unopposed transition masked deeper tensions. Ahidjo, a northern Fulani Muslim, attempted a coup in 1984, which Biya crushed, consolidating power and rebranding the CNU as the CPDM in 1985. Biya's early years promised liberalization: he legalized opposition parties in 1990 amid pressure from donors like France and the World Bank, and oversaw Cameroon's first multiparty election in 1992, which he won with 40% amid widespread fraud allegations. Subsequent victories in 1997 (92%), 2004 (70%), 2011 (78%), and 2018 (71%) followed a familiar script: control of the judiciary, media, and electoral machinery ensured dominance.
Biya's July 14 announcement for the 2025 race – posted on his verified X account – cited an "increasingly difficult international environment" and "insistent calls" from supporters. His campaign slogan, "Greatness and Hope," evokes continuity, promising focus on women and youth – ironic, given that 51% of the population is female, yet only one woman, Hermine Patricia Tomaino Ndam Njoya, contests the race. Biya's sole public rally on October 7 in Maroua, the Far North's largest city, drew thousands waving placards like "The Kanuri Community Supports Paul Biya." There, he acknowledged woes like poor roads and electricity, assuring, "These problems are not impossible to overcome."
Yet, Biya's health remains a specter. Rumors intensified after a 42-day absence in 2024, prompting a government ban on public discussion as a "national security" issue. In June 2025, a municipal councilor challenged his candidacy on age grounds, but the Constitutional Council dismissed it. Even Biya's daughter, Brenda, posted a TikTok video in September urging voters to reject him, calling his rule one of suffering – a plea she later retracted. Catholic bishops, led by Archbishop Samuel Kleda of Douala, echoed this in January, deeming it "unrealistic" for Biya to continue.
Under Biya, Cameroon's economy has been a tale of untapped potential. Blessed with oil, cocoa (world's fifth-largest producer), timber, and minerals, GDP grew 3.8% in 2023, buoyed by services and forestry. Yet, exports' complexity has declined, dropping Cameroon from 94th to 120th on the Economic Complexity Index since 2012, due to crises and barriers. Poverty affects 23% on $2.15/day, with youth unemployment at 13% officially but far higher informally. Corruption scandals, like the 2018 misappropriation of $300 million in public funds, erode trust. The World Bank notes stagnation, with infrastructure deficits – only 52% have electricity access – hampering growth.
Biya's defenders credit him with stability amid regional turmoil: hosting 431,530 refugees from Central African Republic and Nigeria, and leading anti-Boko Haram efforts. But critics, including former allies like Issa Tchiroma Bakary, decry "suffocating" mismanagement, leaving Cameroon dependent on IMF loans.
The Barred Challenger: Maurice Kamto's Shadow Over the Race
No figure looms larger over this election than Maurice Kamto, the 71-year-old lawyer and academic whose exclusion has galvanized opposition fury. Leader of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC), Kamto stunned in 2018, securing 14% – second place – amid fraud claims that sparked deadly protests and his brief arrest. A former international law professor and Biya's justice minister (2006-2011), Kamto embodies the intellectual opposition, advocating electoral reform and federalism.
His July 15 filing under the African Movement for New Independence and Democracy (MANIDEM) – after MRC's ineligibility due to a 2020 boycott – was rejected on July 26 by Elections Cameroon (ELECAM) for "multiple investitures," as a splinter faction nominated Dieudonné Yebga. The Constitutional Council upheld this on August 5, sparking clashes outside its Yaoundé headquarters where 53 MRC supporters were arrested. Human Rights Watch decried it as "political weaponry," undermining credibility.
Kamto's September 26 statement urged free voting but lamented opposition disunity. On September 17, he called for the 11 candidates to unite behind one experienced figure, invoking patriotism. He met Tomaino Ndam Njoya on September 21, signaling potential alliances. Yet, fragmentation persists: the Union for Change 2025 coalition backed Tchiroma on September 13.
Kamto's saga highlights ELECAM's biases. Established in 2006 as "independent," its nine-member board is presidentially appointed, drawing CPDM loyalists. Of 83 applications, only 13 provisionally approved; 35 appeals yielded 12 finalists, excluding Kamto. UN High Commissioner Volker Türk warned in September of "restrictions on civic space" eroding voter will.
The Fractured Field: Who Are the Main Contenders?
With Kamto sidelined, the race features 12 candidates, but only a handful pose threats. Biya's CPDM machine – controlling 152 of 180 National Assembly seats – mobilizes via state resources, a tactic critics call "administrative electoral practices."
Issa Tchiroma Bakary (75, Front for National Salvation of Cameroon - FSNC): A former railway engineer and Biya ally for 33 years, Tchiroma resigned in June 2025 as employment minister, decrying a "suffocating" system. From Adamawa in the north – a vote-rich region expecting presidential rotation after southern Biya – he promises overhaul, accusing Biya of resource mismanagement. Rallies in Maroua drew thousands; the Union for Change 2025 coalition endorsed him. Analysts see him as a spoiler in Biya's northern base, which delivered 20% of 2018 votes.
Bello Bouba Maigari (78, National Union for Democracy and Progress - UNDP): Another ex-Biya minister (tourism), Maigari quit in June from the Far North, pledging dialogue on the Anglophone crisis. A 1992 runner-up (20%), he commands northern Muslim support but faces skepticism as a "situationist." Two candidates, Ateki Seta Caxton and Akere Muna, withdrew to back him.
Hermine Patricia Tomaino Ndam Njoya (56, Cameroon Democratic Union - UDC): The sole female contender, this former lawmaker and Foumban mayor focuses on electoral reform and gender equity. Spokesperson for the Platform of Opposition Leaders, she met Kamto in September, hinting at alliances. Campaigning in the diaspora (Germany, Italy, France), she woos youth and women, but lacks northern traction.
Cabral Libii (45, Cameroon Party for National Reconciliation - PCRN): The 2018 third-placer (6%), this MP and ex-journalist appeals to urban youth with anti-corruption rhetoric. His candidacy faced internal PCRN challenges, but he vows systemic change.
Joshua Osih (56, Social Democratic Front - SDF): Anglophone leader of the once-powerful SDF, Osih (3% in 2018) pledges 100-day crisis resolution via federalism. Infighting has weakened SDF, but he eyes Northwest/Southwest votes.
Others, like Luc Sindjoun (independent) and Valère Gourion (independent), trail with niche appeals. Fragmentation – no unified front despite Kamto's pleas – favors Biya, per Crisis Group: "A single opposition candidate could trigger an irresistible dynamic."
The Machinery of the Vote: Constitution, ELECAM, and Credibility Concerns
Cameroon's 1996 Constitution and 2012 Electoral Code dictate a single-round, first-past-the-post system: no majority needed, winner takes all for a seven-year term. The 2008 amendments scrapped two-term limits, sparking riots that killed dozens. ELECAM, meant independent since 2006, oversees with a nine-member board (five CPDM-linked appointees), drawing bias accusations. Voter registration hit 8.2 million by August 31, 2024, up 24% from 2018, but biometric kits and indelible ink shortages loom.
The U.S. Embassy urged "peaceful" engagement in July, stressing freedoms of expression and assembly. Yet, August arrests of 53 outside the Constitutional Council and September's civic space curbs signal repression. Internet shutdowns – as in 2017 Anglophone protests – threaten #KeepItOn calls from Access Now.
Results are due within 15 days, with the Constitutional Council certifying. Past polls saw 2018 turnout at 53.8%, but fraud claims persist.
Key Issues: Security, Economy, and the Anglophone Shadow
The Anglophone Crisis: Rooted in 2016 protests against "francophonization," the conflict pits separatists seeking "Ambazonia" against Yaoundé's forces. Over 431,000 displaced, schools shuttered (70% closure rate), and 16% turnout in 2018 Anglophone regions. ELECAM lists 2,504 polling stations there for 541,000 voters, down from pre-crisis norms. Separatists' "ghost towns" threaten October 12 lockdowns. Osih vows 100-day fix; Maigari, dialogue. Biya's military approach – 50% fatality rise in 2024 – alienates.
Economic Woes: Oil (down 5% yearly) and cocoa (prices volatile) drive 40% export reliance, but corruption siphons gains. IMF projects 1.9% deficit in 2024, but debt at 48% GDP strains. Youth demand jobs; Biya pledges vocational training, but skepticism reigns. Tchiroma slams "failure everywhere."
Health and Succession: Biya's absences fuel chaos fears. Constitutionally, Senate President Marcel Niat Njifenji would interim, barred from running. No clear heir risks elite infighting.
Youth and Women: 60% under 25, many apathetic: "A scam," says Douala artist Theophile. Tomaino Ndam Njoya targets them with reform.
Voter Sentiments: Apathy, Hope, and Fear on the Ground
In Yaoundé's Mokolo market, Elvis Nghobo, 34, sells yams, his dreams of professional school dashed by "elite-favoring corruption." "I won't vote; results are fixed." Nearby, 20-year-old Giovanni backs Biya's "wisdom." In Bamenda, Annie Nsalla, now 23, recalls 2018 gunfire: "Ballots or bullets?" Polling stations: 596 in Northwest, 1,908 in Southwest – but threats loom.
Diaspora votes (over 200,000) could sway: Tomaino Ndam Njoya rallied in Europe. X posts show division: #Biya2025 trends with rally videos, while #ChangeNow amplifies Kamto's call. Samuel Eto'o endorsed Biya October 10, drawing backlash.
International Eyes: Calls for Credibility
The U.S., EU, and AU urge transparency; OHCHR's Türk warns of "undermined" polls. France, Biya's key ally, stays mum, but NGOs like Crisis Group predict "stress test" for stability. Post-vote unrest risks, especially if turnout dips below 50%.
Looking Ahead: A Nation at the Crossroads
As Cameroonians queue at polling stations tomorrow, the vote transcends ballots – it's a cry for renewal. Biya's victory seems probable, but low turnout (projected 45-50%) and protests could delegitimize it. A Kamto-inspired surge or northern defection might upend odds, but unity eludes.
In Douala's St. Marc parish, Archbishop Kleda's words resonate: "The rich close their hearts... This is our situation." For Aisha Ngono and millions like her, October 12 isn't just an election – it's a plea for a Cameroon where hope outlives longevity.
