WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump, fresh from orchestrating a landmark ceasefire in Gaza, turned his diplomatic gaze eastward on Monday, suggesting that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could emerge as a crucial mediator in the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One as he returned to the White House from Egypt, Trump praised Erdogan's influence in Moscow and his personal rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin, framing the Turkish leader as a potential bridge to negotiations in a conflict that has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives since February 2022.
"Erdogan can," Trump said bluntly when asked if world leaders, particularly the Turkish president, could help broker an end to the fighting. "He's respected by Russia. Ukraine, I can't tell you about, but he is respected by Putin," he added, emphasizing his own affinity for strongman diplomacy. "He's a friend of mine. I get along with the tough ones—I don't get along with the weak ones."
The comments, delivered against the backdrop of the Red Sea's shimmering horizon during the flight from Sharm el-Sheikh, mark a renewed push by Trump to extend his Middle East peacemaking momentum to Europe's deadliest war in decades. They come just hours after Trump co-hosted a high-stakes summit with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, where more than 20 world leaders gathered to formalize a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, including a phased hostage-prisoner exchange that has already seen the release of dozens of captives. Erdogan was among the dignitaries in attendance, underscoring Turkey's growing role as a diplomatic fulcrum in both regions.
Trump's endorsement of Erdogan is not new but gains fresh urgency amid stalled Ukraine talks. During his first term, Trump frequently touted his "excellent" relationship with the Turkish leader, even as tensions flared over issues like Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems. In recent months, as the Ukraine conflict grinds into its fourth year, Trump has repeatedly urged Erdogan to leverage his Black Sea leverage—Turkey controls the straits vital to Russian naval movements—to pressure Moscow. Last month, during a White House meeting with Erdogan, Trump pressed him to halt Turkish imports of Russian oil, calling it "the best thing he could do" to starve Russia's war machine. "If he did that, that would be the best thing," Trump said then, adding that Erdogan's respect from both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin could yield "big influence" if harnessed.
Türkiye's foreign policy has long balanced NATO allegiance with pragmatic ties to Russia, positioning Ankara as a neutral broker. Since the invasion began, Erdogan has hosted multiple rounds of talks in Istanbul, including grain export deals that temporarily eased global food shortages. Last week, Erdogan spoke by phone with Putin, stressing the need for "diplomatic initiatives to gain momentum" toward a "just and lasting peace," according to a statement from his office. Ankara has consistently urged Kyiv and Moscow to negotiate, offering mediation and even proposing to host Zelenskyy and Putin for direct dialogue. "Türkiye is ready for any initiative to lay the groundwork for peace," Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reiterated in a recent address to the UN General Assembly.
Trump's remarks have sparked immediate reactions across capitals. In Kyiv, officials welcomed the idea cautiously, with Zelenskyy's office noting Erdogan's past mediation efforts but emphasizing that any talks must prioritize Ukraine's territorial integrity. "We appreciate all voices calling for peace, but it must be on just terms," a spokesperson said. Moscow, meanwhile, has historically viewed Erdogan as a reliable interlocutor; Putin has praised Turkey's "balanced" stance, even as Russian forces advance in Donbas. On social media, X users amplified Trump's words, with posts from outlets like the Kyiv Independent highlighting the potential for Turkish involvement. One viral clip from the press gaggle garnered thousands of views, with commentators debating whether Erdogan's "tough" persona—honed through domestic crackdowns and assertive foreign policy—could indeed sway Putin.
The timing of Trump's Ukraine pivot is no coincidence. The Sharm el-Sheikh summit, billed as a "Peace 2025" triumph, showcased Trump's deal-making prowess just weeks before pivotal U.S. midterm elections. Arriving in Egypt after addressing Israel's Knesset and meeting hostage families, Trump posed triumphantly before a banner proclaiming the end of the Gaza war. The agreement, inked on October 13, includes the release of all remaining living hostages—about 20, per Israeli estimates—in exchange for 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including high-profile militants. Hamas has already vacated tunnels and assumed interim security control in parts of Gaza, a development confirmed by Egyptian mediators.
Co-chaired by Trump and al-Sisi, the gathering drew leaders from Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Jordan's King Abdullah II, and the Palestinian Authority's Mahmoud Abbas, but notably excluded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who cited Yom Kippur observances despite a personal invitation. Hamas representatives were also absent, with indirect channels handling their input. Al-Sisi hailed the deal as a "last chance" for regional stability, warning that without a Palestinian state, fragile truces could unravel. Trump, beaming alongside signatories, quipped, "We have waited three thousand years to reach this stage. Can you believe it?"—a nod to biblical history that drew applause from the assembly.
The summit extended beyond Gaza, touching on broader Middle East realignments. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in a surprise address, nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for the second time this year, crediting his "visionary leadership" for averting catastrophe in Gaza and resolving an earlier India-Pakistan flare-up. Trump reciprocated, calling Sharif's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, his "favorite Field Marshal" and gesturing warmly: "India and Pakistan will live very nicely together." Italy's Giorgia Meloni, however, appeared visibly strained during photo ops, fueling speculation of European unease over U.S.-led dynamics. Australia's Albanese government, meanwhile, was conspicuously snubbed, with critics decrying diminished Down Under influence.
Yet, for all its pageantry, the Gaza accord raises thorny questions. Phase one secures an immediate halt to hostilities and aid corridors, but subsequent stages—Israeli withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, and Gaza's governance—remain uncharted. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, present at the signing, urged "irreversible commitments" to avoid relapse, citing the war's toll: over 41,000 Palestinian deaths and 1,200 Israelis killed in the October 7, 2023, attack that ignited the conflict. Reconstruction estimates top $50 billion, with Egypt and Qatar pledging initial funds. Trump's envoy, son-in-law Jared Kushner, hinted at a "second phase in progress," though details were sparse: "It started as far as we're concerned."
Analysts see parallels between Gaza and Ukraine: both demand sustained U.S. engagement to prevent spoilers. Trump's May phone call with Erdogan already floated joint Ukraine efforts, with the Turkish leader endorsing the American's "approach toward ending wars." Now, with Gaza's ink dry, Trump plans a White House meeting with Zelenskyy on Friday, October 17, where Erdogan's involvement could top the agenda. "Some of these players, especially Erdogan, are also involved in resolving the war between Russia and Ukraine," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted dryly last weekend, acknowledging the shifting alliances.
Erdogan's toolkit is formidable. Turkey's drone exports have bolstered Ukraine's defenses, while its energy deals sustain Russian exports—giving Ankara leverage over both. Economists estimate Turkish-Russian trade hit $60 billion last year, including discounted oil that funds 40% of Moscow's budget. If Erdogan curbs these flows, as Trump urges, it could force Putin's hand; if not, critics like U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham warn of "enabling aggression." On X, pro-Ukraine voices like @wartranslated echoed Trump's clip, while skeptics questioned Erdogan's neutrality given Turkey's Syria incursions.
As Trump touched down in Washington, the city buzzed with speculation. White House aides leaked plans for a "Ukraine peace quartet" involving the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and India—nations Trump credits with stabilizing South Asia. Yet challenges loom: Europe's NATO hawks, led by France's Emmanuel Macron, favor arming Kyiv indefinitely, while Beijing eyes any U.S.-Turkish axis warily. Guterres called for "multilateral momentum," but Trump demurs: "I make the deals."
In Sharm el-Sheikh's shadow, where ancient pharaohs once brokered pacts, Trump's words on Erdogan signal ambition unbound. The Gaza ceasefire, hailed as a "new beautiful day," now tests whether personal ties can tame global fires. For Ukraine's weary millions, the hope is fragile but real: if Erdogan "can," as Trump insists, 2025 might yet etch peace twice over.
