Cairo, Egypt – October 17, 2025 – In a stark warning that has reignited one of Africa's most contentious water disputes, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly declared on Thursday that the Nile River is a "matter of existence" for Egypt and "not open to adventure or compromise." His remarks, delivered at the closing session of the 8th Cairo Water Week, come amid renewed frictions with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a massive hydropower project that Cairo views as an existential threat to its water security.
The event, held from October 14-17 at the Egypt Expo Center, gathered over 5,000 participants from 120 countries, including water experts, policymakers, and representatives from international organizations like the United Nations and the African Union. Madbouly highlighted how the week-long forum addressed "key issues at the heart of international water security," focusing on the challenges of managing shared water resources to balance security, development, and sustainability.
"Egypt is a clear example of these challenges, facing a complex water system with limited resources, relying more than 98% on a transboundary river alongside continuous population growth and a decline in per capita water share below the global scarcity threshold," Madbouly stated, according to an official Cabinet statement released post-event. Egypt's population, now exceeding 110 million, receives just 550 cubic meters of water per capita annually—well under the United Nations' 1,000 cubic meter threshold for water scarcity.
Madbouly underscored the Nile Basin's hydrological realities: The basin receives over 1,660 billion cubic meters of rainfall each year, yet only 84 billion cubic meters—approximately 5%—flow downstream to Egypt and Sudan. This disparity, he argued, demands equitable cooperation rather than unilateral actions. "Despite this abundance, one party continues to repeat a unilateral narrative and promote misconceptions about the ownership and sources of the Nile to justify individual policies in managing a shared resource in violation of international law and the principles of transparency and coordination," he said, in an unmistakable reference to Ethiopia.
The prime minister directly challenged Ethiopian claims that the country "contributes" 85% of the Nile's waters, asserting that such statements "contradict science and law." Hydrological studies, including those by the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), confirm that while Ethiopia's Blue Nile tributary supplies the bulk of the river's flow during the rainy season, the Nile is an "integrated ecological and hydrological system shared by all basin countries with balanced rights and obligations." The river, Madbouly emphasized, "is not granted by anyone."
Reiterating Egypt's red lines, he declared: "The Nile for Egypt is a matter of existence that does not tolerate adventure or compromise." Cairo remains committed to cooperation "based on international law," but vowed to defend its rights "by all legitimate means." This firm stance echoes Egypt's historical reliance on the Nile, which irrigates 96% of its arable land and supports 95% of its population clustered along its banks.
The comments follow pointed criticism from Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi earlier this week. On October 14, during the Water Week's opening, Sisi accused Addis Ababa of "harming downstream countries Egypt and Sudan" through the GERD. He called for an "African and international initiative" to forge a binding agreement on the dam's filling and operation, warning that without it, "the region risks irreversible damage." Sisi's remarks were amplified by a viral state media video showing satellite imagery of the GERD reservoir, now at 70% capacity after its official inauguration on September 20, 2025.
The GERD Dispute: A Decade of Stalemate
The GERD, launched in 2011 on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia's Benishangul-Gumuz region, is Africa's largest hydroelectric project, boasting 5,150 megawatts of capacity—enough to power Ethiopia's entire grid and export surplus energy. Costing $5 billion, primarily funded by Ethiopian bonds and domestic resources, the dam stands 145 meters high and 1.8 kilometers wide, with a reservoir spanning 1,874 square kilometers.
Egypt and Sudan, the most downstream nations, fear the GERD's 74 billion cubic meter reservoir could drastically cut their Nile flows during filling phases, exacerbating droughts and crippling agriculture. Sudan, while supportive of the dam's power benefits, shares Cairo's concerns over flood control and water allocation. Ethiopia, however, insists the project is essential for its 120 million people—85% of whom lack reliable electricity—and maintains that filling can occur without significantly harming neighbors. Addis Ababa argues no binding agreement is needed, citing its sovereign right under international law.
Negotiations, mediated by the African Union since 2020, resumed in October 2023 after a three-year impasse but collapsed again in April 2024 over Ethiopia's refusal to commit to a timeline. The latest round, held virtually in August 2025, ended without progress. Egypt has rejected Ethiopia's proposed 4-7 year filling schedule as too aggressive, advocating for 15 years tied to hydrological data. The United Nations Security Council urged resumption in a July 2025 resolution, but enforcement remains elusive.
The Nile's Vast Reach and Shared Stakes
Stretching 6,650 kilometers (4,132 miles) from Burundi's highlands to the Mediterranean, the Nile is the world's longest river, sustaining 300 million people across 11 countries: Burundi, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, Sudan, and Egypt. Its two main tributaries—the White Nile from Lake Victoria and the Blue Nile from Ethiopia's highlands—merge in Sudan, feeding a basin twice the size of Europe.
Colonial-era agreements, like the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty granting Egypt veto power over upstream projects, fuel Ethiopia's grievances. The 2010 Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), signed by six upstream states but rejected by Egypt and Sudan, aims for equitable sharing but lacks universality. The NBI, established in 1999, promotes dialogue, yet GERD tensions threaten its efficacy.
Broader Implications for Water Security
Cairo Water Week illuminated global parallels: The Colorado River Basin's overuse mirrors Nile strains, while the Mekong Delta faces similar dam disputes. Experts at the forum, including World Bank hydrologist Dr. Amina Khalil, warned that climate change could slash Nile flows by 20% by 2050, intensifying scarcity. Madbouly announced $2 billion in Egyptian investments for desalination and wastewater recycling to reduce Nile dependency to 80% by 2030.
Ethiopian officials, absent from the event, dismissed Madbouly's speech via state media as "alarmist propaganda." Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reiterated on October 16 that GERD filling would proceed "in phases respectful of neighbors," with the next stage targeting 80% capacity by 2026. Sudan, caught in the middle, proposed neutral arbitration last month, but received no response.
International actors are mobilizing: The U.S., under President Harris, pledged $500 million in October 2025 for Nile Basin climate resilience. The EU hosted trilateral talks in Brussels on October 10, yielding a roadmap for October 2026 resumption. Analysts predict escalation risks, including Egypt's naval exercises in the Red Sea last week, signaling potential military posturing.
As Cairo Water Week concluded, Madbouly urged basin states to prioritize "cooperation over confrontation." Yet, with GERD turbines spinning and reservoirs rising, the Nile's fate hangs in precarious balance. For Egypt, the stakes are survival; for Ethiopia, sovereignty; for the continent, a test of unity. Without a deal, experts forecast humanitarian crises affecting millions by 2027.
