In a stark assessment of international efforts to combat climate change, a United Nations report released on Tuesday highlighted a significant shortfall in global commitments under the Paris Agreement. The agreement, adopted in 2015 by nearly 200 countries, requires signatories to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—national plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions—every five years. This year marked the first major update cycle since 2020, with submissions due by early 2025 to demonstrate accelerated progress in limiting global warming. However, the UN's synthesis report revealed that only 64 countries, representing roughly one-third of the 195 signatories, had formally submitted new or updated pledges by the deadline.
The report, compiled by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), underscored the inadequacy of these submissions in meeting scientific imperatives. If the pledged reductions from these 64 nations are fully implemented, global greenhouse gas emissions would decrease by approximately 17% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. This figure falls dramatically short of the 37% global reduction deemed necessary by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to cap warming at 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels—a threshold widely regarded as critical to averting the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, including widespread extreme weather, sea-level rise, and biodiversity loss.
The Paris Agreement's structure relies on voluntary but increasingly ambitious NDCs, with the expectation that collective action would ratchet up over time. The 2025 cycle was anticipated to reflect heightened urgency following record-breaking heatwaves, wildfires, and floods in recent years, as well as advancements in renewable energy technologies. Yet, the low submission rate signals a stagnation in momentum, particularly among major economies. "This is a missed opportunity to build on the progress made at COP28 in Dubai," said Simon Stiell, UNFCCC Executive Secretary, in a statement accompanying the report. "The science is clear: we need deep, rapid, and sustained emissions cuts this decade to keep 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach."
A notable inclusion in the UN assessment was the United States' climate plan, originally proposed under the administration of former President Joe Biden. This NDC outlined ambitious targets, including a 50-52% reduction in emissions below 2005 levels by 2030, with pathways extending to net-zero by 2050. However, current U.S. President Donald Trump, who assumed office earlier this year following his election victory, has publicly stated his intention to withdraw from or disregard the Paris Agreement entirely—a position he echoed during his first term from 2017 to 2021. The report noted this plan for completeness but emphasized that its implementation remains uncertain under the present administration. The U.S., historically the largest cumulative emitter of greenhouse gases, accounts for about 13% of annual global emissions, making its leadership pivotal.
The shortfall extends beyond the U.S., with developing and smaller nations often citing the need for larger emitters to take the lead before committing resources. This dynamic has left several high-emission countries without formal submissions. India, the world's third-largest emitter responsible for around 7% of global emissions, has not yet filed an updated NDC. Similarly, Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer and exporter contributing roughly 2% of emissions through fossil fuel production and domestic use, remains absent from the list of submitters. These absences are particularly concerning given the IPCC's warnings that emissions from fossil fuels must peak and decline sharply by 2025 to align with Paris goals.
The European Union, a bloc of 27 member states accounting for about 7% of global emissions, provided only an unofficial statement of its intentions rather than a formal NDC submission. In its communication, the EU reaffirmed its commitment to existing targets, stating it is on track to achieve a 55% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2030. Looking ahead, the bloc outlined aspirations to cut emissions by between 66.25% and 72.5% by 2035, again relative to 1990 baselines. This would build on the EU's Green Deal framework, which includes policies like carbon border adjustments, expanded renewables, and phase-outs of coal power. However, the informal nature of the statement means it does not yet count toward the UN's aggregated projections.
China, the world's top emitter at approximately 30% of global greenhouse gases, made headlines days before the deadline by announcing a pledge to reduce emissions intensity by 7% to 10% over the next decade. This target focuses on emissions per unit of GDP, aligning with China's dual-carbon goals of peaking emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Despite the announcement, China has not formally submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC registry, leaving its contributions in limbo for official tallying.
Incorporating the pledges from China and the EU—along with the 64 submitted NDCs—the UN report projected a more modest global outcome. If all current plans, including these informal commitments, are fully enacted, emissions could decline by around 10% by 2035 from 2019 levels. This trajectory would still result in warming exceeding 2.5 degrees Celsius by century's end, according to UNFCCC modeling, heightening risks of irreversible tipping points such as Amazon rainforest dieback or permafrost thaw.
The report's findings come amid a year of contrasting signals on climate action. Renewable energy installations reached record highs globally, with solar and wind capacity additions surpassing 500 gigawatts in 2024 alone, driven by falling costs and policy incentives in regions like Europe and Asia. Electric vehicle sales also surged, comprising over 18% of new car purchases worldwide. Yet, fossil fuel subsidies remained elevated at over $1 trillion annually, and coal consumption in parts of Asia hit new peaks.
Experts attribute the submission delays to a mix of political transitions, economic pressures, and geopolitical tensions. In the U.S., the shift to a Trump administration has revived debates over energy independence versus climate obligations.
