ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast — In a result that surprised few observers, President Alassane Ouattara has secured a resounding victory in the West African nation's presidential election, paving the way for a fourth term at the helm of the world's top cocoa producer. The 83-year-old incumbent, a former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, captured 89.77% of the vote, or approximately 3.75 million ballots, according to provisional results announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) on Monday evening. The outcome, broadcast live on state television, underscores Ouattara's enduring grip on power but also highlights deepening divisions in a country still scarred by its violent electoral past.
Businessman and former Commerce Minister Jean-Louis Billon, running under the banner of the Democratic Congress (CODE), finished a distant second with just 3.09% of the votes. Billon, from one of Ivory Coast's wealthiest families, had conceded defeat as early as Sunday, citing partial tallies that showed Ouattara surging ahead nationwide. "The initial results place the incumbent President, Mr. Alassane Ouattara, in the lead, designating him the winner of this presidential election," Billon stated, extending congratulations in a move that contrasted sharply with the broader opposition's defiance. Trailing further behind were Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, the former first lady and wife of ex-President Laurent Gbagbo, with 2.42%, and other minor candidates like Ahoua Don Mello and Henriette Lagou Adjoua, who together mustered less than 5% combined.
Voter participation, however, painted a picture of widespread disillusionment. The CEI reported a turnout of 50.1%, roughly on par with the 2020 and 2015 elections but a stark drop from the 80% recorded in the 2010 first round that ignited a deadly crisis. In the commercial hub of Abidjan and opposition strongholds in the south and west—regions like Gagnoa, the hometown of Laurent Gbagbo—polling stations stood eerily empty, with turnout dipping as low as 20% in some areas. "There was no reason to vote. Everything was arranged for Ouattara to win," lamented one Abidjan voter, echoing sentiments of apathy fueled by the exclusion of major challengers. In contrast, northern districts, Ouattara's political base, saw robust queues, with voters turning out in droves to affirm their support.
The election, held on October 25, unfolded peacefully under the watch of over 44,000 security personnel, a far cry from the post-2010 violence that claimed 3,000 lives. Yet, the calm masked simmering tensions. Ahead of voting, opposition groups staged protests against the barring of their leaders, leading to arrests and a government ban on public gatherings. On Sunday, a coalition of parties aligned with Laurent Gbagbo's African People's Party-Côte d'Ivoire (PPA-CI) and Tidjane Thiam's Democratic Party of Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI) branded the poll a "civilian coup d'état," vowing not to recognize Ouattara's mandate. "This isn't an election; it's a farce," one supporter in Bonoua told reporters, citing the North-South ethnic and political divide that has long plagued Ivorian politics.
The disqualifications were pivotal. Laurent Gbagbo, 80, who ruled from 2000 to 2011, was sidelined due to a prior criminal conviction related to post-election atrocities, despite his 2021 acquittal by the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity. Tidjane Thiam, the charismatic former Credit Suisse CEO and PDCI leader, was struck from the ballot over his past French nationality, which he renounced too late to satisfy electoral rules. Critics, including human rights groups, decried these moves as judicial maneuvering to neutralize threats, drawing parallels to the 2020 boycott that handed Ouattara 94% in a similarly lopsided contest. "The opposition is divided and hobbled," noted William Assanvo of the Institute for Security Studies, attributing the low turnout to "significant demobilization" from the pre-vote crackdown.
Ouattara's path to power has been anything but straightforward. He first ascended in 2011, after a disputed 2010 vote that pitted him against Gbagbo, sparking a civil war exacerbated by ethnic tensions and French intervention. Originally capped at two terms under the constitution, Ouattara sidestepped the limit via a 2016 referendum that reset his tenure clock, a reform his foes labeled a power grab. Since then, he has touted an economic renaissance: GDP growth averaging 7-8% annually, poverty halved from 56% in 2011 to 28% by 2023, and mega-projects like the $1.8 billion third Abidjan bridge and a gleaming new airport. Ivory Coast now boasts West Africa's second-highest per capita income at $2,709, fueled by cocoa exports that account for 40% of the economy.
Yet, the shine has tarnished for many. Youth unemployment hovers at 15%, and inequality festers in urban slums where Gen Z protesters—emboldened by anti-French sentiment and Sahel coups—have decried Ouattara's "authoritarian drift." In January 2025, the government shuttered French military bases to quell public ire, but disinformation campaigns mimicking those in Mali and Niger have proliferated online, amplifying calls for "ADO Dégage!" (Ouattara, Get Out!). Rinaldo Dipagne of the International Crisis Group observed that post-2010 war fatigue has bred broader political disengagement: "People saw that politics wouldn't bring positive change."
The provisional tallies await validation by the Constitutional Council, which must adjudicate any petitions within days. Simone Gbagbo, despite her low showing, congratulated Ouattara on Monday, a gesture that may temper immediate unrest. Still, analysts warn of fragility. "This landslide masks fragility," said Beverly Ochieng of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointing to the opposition's vows for fresh polls. ECOWAS observers, led by Nigeria's former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, praised the vote's logistics but flagged the exclusions as undermining credibility.
Looking ahead, Ouattara has pledged continuity: accelerating private investment, cocoa reforms amid global price volatility, and—crucially—a "leadership transition" to groom successors. At 83, questions swirl about his vigor and succession plans in a nation where the median age is 18. This victory, his widest yet, eclipses his 83% in 2015, but in a polarized electorate of 8.7 million registered voters, it may sow seeds for future discord. As the CEI's Ibrahime Coulibaly-Kuibiert declared the results, one thing rang clear: Ivory Coast's democratic experiment endures, but its inclusivity hangs in the balance.
