Antananarivo, Madagascar – October 14, 2025 – The serene dawn over the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar was shattered on October 13, 2025, as reports emerged that President Andry Rajoelina, the nation's controversial leader, had secretly fled the country aboard a French military aircraft. This evacuation occurred mere hours before he was scheduled to deliver a nationwide address at 7 p.m. local time (1600 GMT), an event announced via the presidency's official Facebook page that was meant to quell growing unrest. According to French state radio RFI, which broke the story on Monday, October 13, Rajoelina, aged 51 and holder of dual Malagasy and French citizenship, was whisked away from the capital Antananarivo in a covert operation reportedly brokered with French President Emmanuel Macron. Sources indicated he might be en route to Dubai, a frequent haven for deposed leaders seeking neutral ground, though his exact whereabouts remain unconfirmed amid a communications blackout imposed by interim authorities.
This flight marks a stunning collapse for Rajoelina, who has dominated Madagascar's political landscape for over a decade and a half. Elected initially in a disputed 2018 vote and reelected in 2023 amid boycott calls from opposition parties, his administration faced mounting isolation in recent weeks. The catalyst was a youth-driven protest movement dubbed "Gen Z Madagascar," which mobilized thousands against endemic corruption, crippling poverty, and basic service failures like chronic electricity and water shortages. What began as localized grievances escalated into a full-blown crisis when key military units, including the elite CAPSAT presidential guard that once propelled Rajoelina to power, defected and joined the demonstrators. In the streets of Antananarivo, jubilant crowds waved Malagasy flags, chanted anti-government slogans, and even climbed aboard military vehicles, turning symbols of state repression into emblems of popular victory, as witnessed by reporters from Agence France-Presse.
Rajoelina's departure has left Madagascar in a precarious limbo, evoking memories of its turbulent post-colonial history marked by coups, economic woes, and foreign influences. As interim military leaders scramble to assert control and the opposition pushes for swift transitions, the nation of 30 million grapples with questions of legitimacy, stability, and reform. This article delves into the multifaceted layers of this crisis: from the president's biography and the roots of public discontent to the violent clashes, military dynamics, international ramifications, and the uncertain path forward.
Andry Rajoelina: From DJ to Disputed Leader – A Biographical Overview
To understand the depth of this upheaval, one must trace Rajoelina's improbable rise. Born on May 30, 1974, in Antananarivo, Andry Nirina Rajoelina grew up in a middle-class family with ties to the military—his father was a colonel. Eschewing a traditional path, he dropped out of school at 18 to pursue music, becoming a prominent DJ and event organizer in the capital's vibrant nightlife scene. By the late 1990s, he had parlayed his charisma into business, founding Viva Radio and Television, a media empire that gave him a platform to critique the government.
His political debut came in 2007 when, at age 33, he was elected mayor of Antananarivo on a platform of anti-corruption and youth empowerment. Riding a wave of dissatisfaction with incumbent President Marc Ravalomanana, Rajoelina orchestrated massive protests in early 2009. Accusing Ravalomanana of authoritarianism and misuse of funds—including a controversial deal to lease farmland to a South Korean firm—Rajoelina's movement drew hundreds of thousands to the streets. The tipping point was a violent crackdown on February 7, 2009, when security forces killed at least 30 protesters outside the presidential palace.
With the military's CAPSAT unit switching sides, Ravalomanana resigned on March 17, 2009, handing power to a military directorate that immediately installed Rajoelina as president of a High Transitional Authority. At 34, he became Africa's youngest head of state, ruling until 2014 under international sanctions that isolated Madagascar economically. During this period, he implemented populist measures like free education initiatives and infrastructure projects, but critics accused him of cronyism and suppressing dissent. Barred from running in the 2013 elections by age restrictions he himself had imposed, Rajoelina stepped back, only to return triumphantly in 2018.
Winning the presidency with 55.7% of the vote in a runoff against Ravalomanana, Rajoelina promised an "emergence plan" to modernize Madagascar by 2023, focusing on tourism, agriculture, and mining. His reelection in November 2023, boycotted by 10 opposition candidates over allegations of irregularities—including his secret acquisition of French citizenship in 2014, which violated constitutional norms—solidified his grip but sowed seeds of resentment. Holding French nationality allowed him access to European circles but fueled accusations of neo-colonial ties, especially given France's historical role as Madagascar's former colonizer, which gained independence in 1960 after 64 years of rule.
In office, Rajoelina projected an image of dynamism: launching a cable car system in Antananarivo costing $152 million, promoting vanilla as a global export (Madagascar supplies 80% of the world's natural vanilla), and courting investments from China and the Gulf states. Yet, beneath the gloss, inequalities festered. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated vulnerabilities, with GDP contracting 4.2% in 2020, and cyclones like Batsirai in 2022 devastated crops, pushing famine risks in the south. By 2025, inflation hovered at 8%, youth unemployment exceeded 40%, and over 75% of the population lived below the $2.15 daily poverty line, per World Bank metrics. Rajoelina's personal wealth, estimated in media reports at over $100 million from media and real estate, contrasted sharply with national woes, breeding cynicism.
The Spark: Utilities Crises and the Birth of Gen Z Madagascar
The current crisis did not erupt overnight but simmered from systemic failures. Madagascar's energy sector, managed by the state-owned Jirama company, has been plagued by mismanagement since the 1990s privatizations. Aging infrastructure leads to load-shedding blackouts lasting 12-18 hours daily in urban areas, crippling businesses and households. Water shortages, affecting 60% of Antananarivo's residents, stem from polluted rivers and inadequate piping, compounded by deforestation that has reduced forest cover by 20% since 2000.
The ignition came on September 19, 2025, when police arrested opposition politicians Clémence Raharinirina and Baba Faniry Rakotoarisoa for planning a protest against these outages. The duo, affiliated with the TIM party of ex-president Ravalomanana, called for action under slogans like "Tsy Manaiky Lembenana" (We Refuse to Be Trampled) and "Leo Delestage" (Fed Up with Load Shedding). Their detention sparked outrage online, where a Facebook group named "Gen Z Madagascar" rapidly grew to 150,000 members by September 25.
This demographic—Madagascar's youth, comprising 60% of the population under 25—found voice in digital spaces. Inspired by global movements like Kenya's #RejectFinanceBill2024 protests in June, where Gen Z forced policy reversals, and Nepal's recent ouster of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli in September 2025 over corruption scandals, Malagasy activists organized via Discord servers and TikTok. They adopted creative symbols: a pirate flag from the anime One Piece, modified with a traditional lamba cloth and Betsileo hat, representing rebellion and cultural pride. Hashtags like #RajoelinaOut and #MadaGenZ trended regionally, amplifying demands for resignation, anti-corruption probes, and utility reforms.
A precursor was the September 15 rally by Transparency International's local chapter, "Democrasia Mainty" (Black Democracy), which drew 5,000 to decry graft in Jirama contracts. Protesters highlighted how elites diverted funds—estimated at $200 million annually lost to corruption, per African Development Bank reports—while rural south faced starvation, with 1.3 million needing food aid post-cyclone.
Rajoelina's responses were piecemeal: On September 26, he sacked Energy Minister Vonjy Andriamanga; on September 29, he dissolved the government of Prime Minister Christian Ntsay, a technocrat appointed in 2023. October 6 saw General Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo named premier, aiming to leverage military loyalty. Invitations for dialogue on October 8 were rebuffed by Gen Z leaders, who viewed them as delays. "Talk is cheap when lights are out," one organizer posted anonymously.
Escalation: Protests, Violence, and the Human Toll
By early October, demonstrations spread to port cities like Toamasina and Toliara, with crowds targeting ministerial residences and looting symbols of wealth. In Mahajanga, protesters blockaded roads with burning tires, demanding water tankers. Police responses grew brutal: tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition dispersed gatherings, leading to nightly curfews.
The United Nations Human Rights Office reported at least 22 deaths by October 10, mostly from security forces' actions in the first chaotic days, plus injuries to 150 others. Criminal gangs exploited blackouts for looting, sparking vigilante violence in markets like Analakely. UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the killings on October 5, urging investigations and restraint. Rajoelina countered in a October 7 press conference, claiming only "12 confirmed deaths, all looters and vandals," dismissing higher tolls as opposition propaganda—a denial that poured fuel on the fire.
Gendarmerie forces, paramilitary police under the Interior Ministry, bore much blame for excesses. On October 11, officers released a video confessing "faults and excesses," pledging neutrality amid internal splits. Eyewitness accounts painted grim pictures: In Antananarivo's Soarano district, 19-year-old student Miarintsoa Rakoto was shot during a October 2 clash, one of many youth casualties. "We marched for water, not war," her sister told local media.
Women and children featured prominently; mothers carried infants to rallies, symbolizing intergenerational stakes. Health impacts extended beyond bullets: disrupted supplies led to hospital shortages, with malaria cases spiking in blackout-hit areas.
Military Defection: The CAPSAT Reversal and Power Seizure
The regime's unraveling accelerated with the armed forces. CAPSAT (Corps d'Armée du Personnel et des Services Administratifs et Techniques), Rajoelina's praetorian guard of 2,000 elite troops instrumental in his 2009 coup, turned on October 11. In a social media video viewed millions of times, soldiers declared: "Let us join forces, military, gendarmes and police, and refuse to be paid to shoot our friends, our brothers and our sisters. Close the gates, and await our instructions. Do not obey orders from your superiors. Point your weapons at those who order you to fire on your comrades in arms because they will not take care of our families if we die."
This mutiny echoed 2009 but inverted roles. Commander Colonel Michael Randrianirina, a 2009 veteran, led the defection, citing unpaid salaries and moral qualms. By October 13, CAPSAT seized barracks, airwaves, and the airport, dissolving ministries while sparing the National Assembly for legitimacy. Gendarmerie factions installed new leaders in a public ceremony, ousting loyalists.
Rajoelina, sensing betrayal, skipped a October 12 event and helicoptered to Sainte-Marie Island off the northeast coast. There, a French Dassault Falcon jet awaited, per flight trackers. RFI detailed the Macron deal: France, with 1,500 citizens in Madagascar and bases in Reunion, prioritized evacuation over intervention, invoking citizenship clauses.
Institutional Fallout and Interim Governance
Opposition figure Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, a former finance minister, launched impeachment on October 13 via the High Constitutional Court. The National Assembly voted 101-50 to remove Rajoelina on October 14, ignoring his dissolution decree from exile. The court named Colonel Randrianirina interim president, scheduling elections by December 13, 2025—60 days per constitution.
Senate President Herimanana Razafimahefa was also ousted amid corruption probes. This power shuffle raises coup fears; Madagascar has endured 20 attempted takeovers since 1960, including 1975, 1996, and 2002 crises.
International Reactions: Concern and Opportunism
Globally, responses poured in. The African Union suspended Madagascar on October 14, condemning "unconstitutional changes" and deploying mediators. SADC, chaired by Rajoelina until August, urged dialogue, with South Africa offering asylum mediation. France's Macron, in Cairo, acknowledged "legitimate youth aspirations" but warned against chaos exploitation, suspending aid ($50 million annually).
The U.S. State Department advised citizens to depart, closing its embassy temporarily. China, owed $2 billion in loans, expressed "concern" over Belt and Road projects like roads stalled by unrest. Russia, via Wagner-linked interests in mining, stayed silent but monitored vanilla disruptions—prices spiked 15% globally.
UN agencies airlifted aid, while NGOs like Amnesty International documented abuses, calling for ICC probes if escalations occur.
Broader Implications: Economic Ripples and Societal Shifts
Economically, turmoil threatens: Vanilla harvests, worth $600 million yearly, face delays, impacting flavors giants like Coca-Cola. Tourism, 7% of GDP, halts with Air France cancellations; beaches in Nosy Be empty. Debt at 50% of GDP strains IMF talks.
Socially, Gen Z's win empowers: Women leaders like Raharinirina symbolize change in a patriarchal society. Yet risks loom—gang violence in voids, ethnic tensions between Merina heartland and coastal groups.
Analysts compare to Arab Spring: Digital mobilization toppled Rajoelina, but sustaining reforms challenges. "This is youth reclaiming agency in a gerontocracy," said University of Antananarivo professor Lala Rasoloarison.
The Path Ahead: Hope Amid Uncertainty
As October 14 dawned, Antananarivo buzzed with cautious optimism. Protesters danced to salegy music in squares, planning assemblies. Interim leader Randrianirina promised inclusivity: "Power to the people, not palaces."
Challenges abound: Rebuilding trust, probing deaths (a truth commission proposed), and elections amid divisions. Rajoelina's return threats from abroad echo exile ploys past. For Gen Z, victory is tentative: "We've ousted one, but systems must change," a organizer tweeted.
Madagascar stands at crossroads—renewal or relapse? In a nation of lemurs and baobabs, human resilience will decide. With global eyes watching, this island's story underscores youth power in fragile democracies, a beacon or warning for Africa.
