In a resounding affirmation of progress amid lingering challenges, Nigeria's Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has declared that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's bold economic policies have positioned the country "firmly on the right path." Speaking on the tangible improvements in everyday life for Nigerians, Edun highlighted a significant drop in the price of rice—from a staggering N120,000 per bag last year to around N80,000 currently. This reduction, he noted, extends beyond rice to include staples like garri, pepper, tomatoes, and other essential commodities, signaling a broader easing of inflationary pressures on households.
Edun's optimistic outlook aligns closely with a detailed write-up titled Nigeria Turns Towards Prosperity, authored by Bayo Onanuga, the Special Adviser on Information and Strategy to President Tinubu. The piece, which was shared prominently by the Ministry of Finance, paints a picture of a nation emerging from the brink of economic peril. Onanuga candidly acknowledges the "tough realities" that persist, yet he expresses a profound mix of emotions: pride in Nigeria's resilience, regret over missed opportunities in the past, and unshakeable confidence in the current trajectory. "Despite some historical shortfalls and present-day challenges, I believe the most difficult phase of our economic journey is behind us," Onanuga writes. "Nigeria has turned a decisive corner. The road ahead will demand hard work and discipline, but we are firmly on the right path."
To fully appreciate this narrative, one must revisit the dire state of affairs when President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. At that juncture, Nigeria's economy teetered on the edge of fiscal collapse. Growth had slowed to a crawl, inflation was surging uncontrollably, and deep-seated market distortions—chief among them the unsustainable fuel subsidy regime and a convoluted multiple exchange rate system—had deterred investors and stifled productivity. These policies, inherited from previous administrations, created an environment rife with arbitrage opportunities for a few while burdening the masses with skyrocketing costs. President Tinubu's mandate was unequivocal: dismantle these distortions, incentivize genuine productivity, and foster a business climate conducive to private sector-led growth.
Two years into his tenure, the macroeconomic indicators tell a story of stabilization and cautious optimism. In the second quarter of 2025, Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by an impressive 4.23 percent, a clear rebound from the sluggish paces of prior years. Inflation, though still elevated at 18.02 percent, has shown signs of moderation, declining for six consecutive months—a testament to the efficacy of monetary tightening and fiscal prudence. The foreign exchange market, once a symbol of chaos with a yawning gap of nearly 70 percent between official and parallel rates, has now converged to a mere 1 percent differential. This unification has not only restored investor confidence but also bolstered the nation's foreign reserves, which have climbed above $43 billion—the highest level since 2019. These figures are not mere abstractions; they lay the groundwork for sustainable, inclusive growth that trickles down to every corner of Nigerian society, from bustling urban centers to rural farmlands.
Yet, as Onanuga astutely observes, an economy is ultimately judged not by spreadsheets but by the lived experiences of its people. For millions of Nigerians, progress is measured in the affordability of a plate of food, the cost of commuting to work, or the price of school supplies for children. Food inflation emerged as the most acute pain point following the initial shocks of currency depreciation and the removal of fuel subsidies. These reforms, while necessary to end decades of fiscal hemorrhage—where subsidies disproportionately benefited smugglers and the elite—initially exacerbated hardships for the average citizen. The government has been forthright in recognizing this burden and has rolled out targeted interventions to mitigate it.
The decline in rice prices from N120,000 to N80,000 per bag exemplifies these efforts. Rice, a dietary staple consumed in households across ethnic and regional lines, had become prohibitively expensive amid global supply disruptions, domestic production shortfalls, and naira volatility. Government initiatives, including the release of grains from strategic reserves, enhanced import facilitation under controlled duties, and investments in local milling capacity, have contributed to this downturn. Similarly, garri—a cassava-based staple beloved in the south and beyond—has seen price reductions, as have fresh produce like pepper and tomatoes. These vegetables, integral to Nigerian cuisine, were hit hard by seasonal fluctuations and transportation costs inflated by fuel prices. With improved logistics through subsidized fertilizers and better road networks in agrarian states, supply chains are stabilizing, bringing relief to markets in Lagos, Kano, and beyond.
Minister Edun's assertions are corroborated by these on-ground realities. In major markets like Mile 12 in Lagos or Dawanau in Kano, traders report a gradual but noticeable easing. A bag of parboiled rice that once drained a family's monthly budget now leaves room for other necessities. This is not to suggest that challenges have vanished; sporadic hikes due to weather events or logistical bottlenecks persist. However, the trend is downward, buoyed by a bumper harvest season anticipated from recent planting incentives.
Looking ahead, the administration is prioritizing agricultural sustainability to prevent reversals. Smallholder farmers, who produce over 80 percent of Nigeria's food, have been the backbone of this recovery but also its most vulnerable link. Programs are underway to safeguard their incomes through price supports, access to improved seeds, and insurance schemes against climate risks. The Anchor Borrowers' Programme has been revamped with greater transparency, ensuring loans reach genuine farmers rather than ghost beneficiaries. Additionally, investments in irrigation and mechanization aim to boost yields, reducing import dependency and shielding against global price shocks.
Onanuga's write-up underscores the human element in this transformation. "We are careful to ensure our smallholder farmers have enough incentives to return to farms next planting season," he notes. This forward-thinking approach includes subsidies on inputs, extension services via digital platforms, and partnerships with agribusinesses for off-take guarantees. By stimulating production, the government seeks not just short-term price relief but long-term food security—a cornerstone of economic independence.
Broader reforms complement these agricultural gains. The stabilization of the naira has lowered import costs for raw materials, benefiting manufacturers and creating jobs. Tax reforms are streamlining compliance, widening the revenue base without burdening the poor. Infrastructure projects, funded partly by reclaimed subsidy savings, are enhancing power supply and transportation, further curbing inflationary drivers.
Critics may point to lingering issues—unemployment among youth, regional disparities, or the pace of poverty reduction—but the data and anecdotes align on a pivotal shift. From the macro stability of 4.23 percent GDP growth and $43 billion in reserves to the micro relief of cheaper garri and tomatoes, Nigeria is navigating out of crisis. President Tinubu's policies, though painful in their inception, are yielding dividends. As Onanuga concludes, the toughest leg of the journey is over. With discipline and continued reforms, prosperity is not a distant dream but an unfolding reality.
This narrative of resurgence is a call to collective action. Nigerians, from policymakers to farmers, must embrace the hard work ahead. The path is set; the destination, a thriving economy where no one is left behind. In the words echoed by both Edun and Onanuga, Nigeria has turned the corner—towards prosperity.
