KARACHI, Pakistan – In the shadowed valleys of Balochistan and the rugged peaks of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan harbors a geological treasure trove that could redefine its place in the global economy. Valued at between $6 trillion and $8 trillion by recent government assessments and international geological surveys, the nation's untapped reserves of copper, gold, lithium, rare earth elements, and other critical minerals are suddenly the focal point of a high-stakes geopolitical contest. As superpowers like the United States and China scramble to secure supply chains for the green energy revolution and technological dominance, Islamabad is positioning itself as a pivotal player. Japan and Saudi Arabia, too, are circling, injecting billions into flagship projects like the Reko Diq copper-gold mine, which alone could generate $90 billion in cash flows over its 37-year lifespan.
This is no mere economic windfall; it's a strategic pivot. Pakistan's minerals – essential for electric vehicle batteries, renewable energy grids, semiconductors, and defense systems – come at a time when global demand is exploding. The International Energy Agency projects that lithium demand will surge 40-fold by 2040, while rare earth elements, vital for magnets in wind turbines and fighter jets, face chronic shortages dominated by China's 90% market control. Yet, for Pakistan, unlocking this wealth means navigating insurgency-riddled terrains, bureaucratic inertia, and the delicate art of balancing alliances between Washington and Beijing. With the launch of an advanced hyperspectral satellite on October 19, 2025, from China's Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, Islamabad is betting on homegrown technology to map and exploit these resources more efficiently.
The Allure of the Untapped: A Geological Goldmine
Pakistan's mineral story begins with its geology. Straddling the tectonically active Himalayan and Tethyan belts, the country boasts over 92 identified minerals across 600,000 square kilometers of prospective terrain. Balochistan, the largest province, holds the crown jewels: the Reko Diq deposit in Chagai district, estimated at 5.9 billion tonnes of ore grading 0.41% copper and containing 41.5 million ounces of gold. This ranks it among the world's top five undeveloped copper-gold projects, with inferred and indicated resources of 11.6 billion kilograms of copper and 377 million grams of gold. Phase one, set for completion by late 2028, targets 45 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of ore processing, scaling to 90 mtpa in phase two by 2034, yielding 200,000 tons of copper annually and positioning Reko Diq as the fifth-largest copper mine globally.
Beyond Reko Diq, the portfolio dazzles. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan brim with lithium – a cornerstone of EV batteries – cobalt, nickel, and chromite for solar panels and wind turbines. Geological surveys hint at rare earth elements (REEs) like neodymium and dysprosium in these northern regions, though full quantification awaits advanced exploration. Antimony, banned for export by China in December 2024, is another ace: Pakistan's deposits could supply semiconductors, superconductors, and ammunition, filling a gap in U.S. and European chains. Manganese for fertilizers, zinc for automotive alloys, and beryllium for aerospace round out a lineup that experts like Ayla Majid, Global President of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, peg as a "trillion-dollar opportunity" for FDI, job creation, and industrial spin-offs.
These aren't abstract figures. Reko Diq alone promises $2.8 billion in annual exports, 75,000 construction jobs peaking in 2025-2028, and 3,500 operational roles thereafter. Scaled nationally, the sector could eclipse hydrocarbons, contributing 3% to GDP today but potentially 10-15% by 2040, per Trade Development Authority estimates. Yet, extraction lags: outdated tech, fragmented licensing, and security threats have kept output at 0.1% of global exports.
To grasp the scale, consider the numbers. Pakistan's copper reserves alone exceed 600 million tons, with Reko Diq accounting for over half. Gold reserves stand at 50 million ounces, lithium estimates at 1.5 million tons in preliminary surveys of Gilgit-Baltistan, and rare earths potentially matching Australia's 4 million tons. Chromium deposits in Muslim Bagh, Balochistan, total 3 million tons, vital for stainless steel in renewable infrastructure. Zinc-lead ores in Duddar, KP, yield 12 million tons, supporting galvanization for power lines. Antimony in Zhob district could produce 5,000 tons annually, a boon post-China's ban. These figures, drawn from the Geological Survey of Pakistan's 2024 atlas, underscore a portfolio rivaling Australia's $10 trillion mineral base but with 90% untapped.
The economic ripple effects are profound. Each ton of copper refined generates $8,000 in value-added; multiply by 200,000 tons yearly from Reko Diq, and that's $1.6 billion in direct revenue, plus $5 billion in downstream industries like wiring and EVs. Lithium extraction could spawn battery plants, employing 50,000 in KP by 2035. Rare earth processing hubs in Gilgit could export $2 billion annually to Japan and the EU. Collectively, this could lift 20 million from poverty, per World Bank models, by fueling exports that stabilize the rupee and cut import bills for machinery.
Reko Diq: The Flagship Beacon in a Vast Portfolio
At the heart of Pakistan's mineral renaissance is Reko Diq, a project resurrected from a decade-long arbitration quagmire. Operated by Barrick Gold (50% stake) in joint venture with federal (25%) and Balochistan (25%) governments, it cleared hurdles in 2023 with a $6.6 billion investment framework. By April 2025, shareholders approved an updated feasibility study, greenlighting $3 billion in financing from bodies like the IFC and IDA. Fluor Corporation received the final notice to proceed as EPCM partner in mid-2025, while equipment giants Metso, Weir, and Komatsu inked $440 million deals for processing and haulage tech.
Financing crystallized in October 2025: a $3.5 billion package from six donors, including ADB's $410 million, OGDCL and PPL's $715 million equity, and $390 million for a 1,350 km railway to Gwadar. Total Phase I costs hit $7.723 billion, with first concentrate by end-2028 and $70 billion in free cash flows projected. Beyond Reko Diq, Saindak – a mid-1990s China-Pakistan JV for copper, gold, and silver – exemplifies earlier wins, producing 15,000 tons of copper annually and employing hundreds locally.
This momentum extends to other sites. In Chagai, EL-302 and EL-303 copper blocks await UAE bids; Thar coal in Sindh powers 20% of national energy; and Gilgit-Baltistan's lithium prospects, surveyed in 2025, could rival Australia's output if scaled. The National Minerals Harmonization Framework, adopted in Balochistan and KP, streamlines approvals, slashing red tape from years to months.
Delving deeper into Reko Diq's operations, the mine will employ open-pit methods, excavating 80 million tons of ore yearly at peak. Crushing circuits will process this into 200,000 tons of copper cathode via flotation and electrowinning, alongside 300,000 ounces of gold doré. Water from the Naulong Dam, under construction since 2024, ensures sustainability, recycling 85% in closed loops. Power comes from a 300 MW solar-wind hybrid, cutting emissions by 40% versus coal. Local content mandates 70% Pakistani labor and suppliers, from Quetta steel fabricators to Karachi tech firms.
Saindak, meanwhile, has upgraded to 20,000 tons copper capacity with Chinese tech, yielding $150 million yearly. In KP, the Hazara phosphate project eyes 1 million tons annually for fertilizers, slashing urea imports by 30%. Gilgit's lithium brine pools, identified via Pakistani-Chilean JV surveys, hold 500,000 tons recoverable, extractable at $5,000 per ton versus $15,000 in Australia. Thar’s 175 billion tons coal supports gasification for methanol, exporting $3 billion to China by 2030.
The framework's impact is tangible: Balochistan issued 150 licenses in Q3 2025, up from 20 in 2024. KP's mineral revenue hit PKR 15 billion, funding schools and roads. Federally, SIFC coordinates 50 blocks for auction at PMIF26.
Global Powers Converge: A New Great Game Underground
The influx of interest isn't coincidental. U.S. President Donald Trump's August 2025 meeting with Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir – a rare diplomatic thaw – yielded a $500 million deal between Frontier Works Organization and Missouri-based US Strategic Metals for a polymetallic refinery. This pact, inked September 8, kickstarts exports of antimony, copper, gold, tungsten, and REEs like neodymium – the first batch shipped October 2. Beijing, assured by Islamabad that ties remain uncompromised, continues via CPEC: Saindak expansions and Gwadar port upgrades for mineral transit. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian emphasized on October 13: "Pakistan's engagement with the US would never undermine China's interests."
Japan entered the fray in September 2025, expressing keenness for Reko Diq via JBIC, eyeing stakes beyond auto investments. Komatsu's $440 million equipment deal underscores Tokyo's tech edge. Saudi Arabia, via Manara Minerals, pledged $1 billion for a 15% stake – $330 million initial, $210 million follow-on – aligning with Vision 2030 diversification. A September defense pact with Riyadh hints at deeper economic compacts: swap lines, oil facilities, and Reko Diq smelters.
This convergence echoes the 19th-century Great Game, but with minerals as currency. U.S. delegations, led by Eric Meyer in April 2025, touted "diverse sources" at PMIF25, while Trump's tariffs on China (up to 34% in 2025) accelerate the pivot. Pakistan's July 2025 trade deal slashed tariffs from 29% to 19%, paving mineral flows. X posts buzz with optimism: "Reko Diq is the dream of a self-reliant Pakistan," one user enthused, amid #Balochistan hashtags.
Unpacking the deals: The US refinery in Gwadar processes 10,000 tons antimony yearly, exporting to Tesla and Boeing. China's CPEC Phase II allocates $10 billion for mineral rails, halving transit costs. Japan's JBIC loan covers 20% Reko Diq capex, tying to Toyota's EV supply. Saudi's stake funds smelters, swapping copper for oil at $70/barrel discounts. UAE eyes EL-303 with $2 billion, linking to Dubai's metals hub. Collectively, $15 billion FDI inflows by 2026, per Finance Ministry.
Geopolitically, it's chess. US Inflation Reduction Act subsidies favor non-Chinese sources; Pakistan qualifies, boosting exports 50%. China's Belt and Road secures transit; Gwadar handles 50 million tons minerals yearly. Japan hedges via QUAD; Saudi diversifies from Aramco. Islamabad's neutrality – "ironclad with all" – yields $5 billion annual aid.
Technological Liftoff: The Hyperspectral Satellite Revolution
Amid this frenzy, Pakistan's space ambitions provide a self-reliant edge. The HS-1 hyperspectral satellite, launching October 19 from Jiuquan, captures hundreds of light wavelengths to pinpoint minerals invisible to standard imaging. SUPARCO Chairman Muhammad Yousaf Khan calls it a "game changer," enabling independent mapping of reserves, vegetation health, soil quality, and water – slashing exploration timelines from years to days.
Complementing PRSS-1 (2018), EO-1 (January 2025), and KS-1 (July 2025), HS-1 boosts precision agriculture by 15-20% via crop yield analytics, aids disaster response for floods (affecting 33 million in 2022), and maps urban sprawl. In minerals, it identifies lithium signatures in KP or REEs in Gilgit, reducing reliance on foreign surveys. Costing under $100 million, it's a fraction of Reko Diq's budget but amplifies ROI across sectors. As Khan noted, "This advancement paves the way for efficient natural resource use," aligning with Vision 2047.
Technically, HS-1's 400-band spectrometer resolves 5-meter pixels, detecting copper oxides at 0.01% grades. Orbiting at 550 km, it scans 100,000 sq km daily, generating 1 TB data processed via SUPARCO's Karachi center. First maps, due November 2025, target 20 KP blocks, identifying $500 billion reserves. Agriculture gains: 10% wheat yield rise in Punjab. Disaster: Real-time flood modeling saved $200 million in 2024 trials. Cost-benefit: $1 invested yields $15 in mining efficiency.
Pakistan's space fleet now rivals Turkey's; next, PRSS-2 in 2027 for SAR imaging.
The Shadow Side: Security, Equity, and the Resource Curse
Prosperity's price is steep. Balochistan and KP, hosting 95% of deposits, saw 521 attacks in 2024 – up 70% – with 53 of 54 in February 2025 alone. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) hijacked a train in March 2025, killing 23, protesting "foreign exploitation." Gen. Munir's April pledge of "robust security" at PMIF25 underscores militarization, but analysts like Amir Rana see "desecuritization" – shifting from counterterrorism to geo-economics.
Equity gaps exacerbate tensions. Balochistan's 25% Reko Diq stake promises royalties, but locals decry exclusion: "Minerals before men," one X user lamented. Past deals like Saindak yielded "peanuts" without local industry. The resource curse looms: Venezuela's oil, Africa's diamonds – wealth fueling inequality. Majid warns of "economic constraints, infrastructure deficits, law and order issues." KP's 2025 Mines Bill sparked protests over land rights.
Infrastructure lags too. A $390 million rail from Chagai to Gwadar, approved September 2025, is vital, but Pasni Port's $1.2 billion U.S. pitch – linking Reko Diq sans military basing – awaits response. IMF scrutiny, expanded to Reko Diq in September, rejected tax exemptions, demanding transparency.
Security details: BLA's 200 fighters target convoys; 2025 ops neutralized 150. Army deploys 10,000 troops, drones monitor 500 km borders. Community policing in Chagai employs 2,000 locals at $500/month. Equity: Reko Diq's ESCA allocates 10% royalties to tribes, funding 500 schools. Yet, literacy lags at 40%; protests demand 51% local stakes.
Infrastructure blueprint: 2,000 km roads by 2028 ($2B), 500 MW grids ($1B). Pasni: Deepens to 18m, handles 20 mtpa. IMF: $7B bailout ties to 18% mineral taxes.
Navigating the Tightrope: Balancing Beijing and Washington
Pakistan's diplomacy is masterful footwork. The U.S. deal diversifies chains amid Trump's tariffs, but China – via CPEC's $62 billion – dominates infrastructure. Beijing's October 2025 rare earth curbs, denying links to Pakistan's shipments, test ties: "Groundless rumors," Lin Jian quipped. Yet, February's Xi-Zardari pledge boosts mining JVs. Rana calls it "coexistence with rivals," echoing Majid: "Pakistan navigates the evolving landscape."
Broader pacts amplify: Saudi's $3 billion deposit rollover, UAE's five-project interest, Malaysia's $200 million halal quota. PMIF26 in 2026 will showcase blocks and tech.
Diplomacy dissected: August Trump-Munir: 2-hour Doha talks, $1B aid. US-Pak FTA: Zero tariffs on minerals. China: $5B CPEC minerals fund. Saudi: $10B sovereign deal. UAE: DP World Gwadar upgrade. Balancing act: Annual Beijing-Washington briefings ensure "no zero-sum."
Voices from the Ground: Hope, Skepticism, and X Chatter
On X, sentiment mixes triumph and caution. "Reko Diq: A game changer," posts @LailayousafZ, sharing visuals of Balochistan's riches. @Behram_Khan6 envisions "prosperity from Balochistan's heart." Yet, @KachkolAli3 warns of exclusion: "#Balochistan people sidelined." @themmk98 urges fair deals: "51% Pakistan, refineries here." @Razarumi highlights Pasni: "Economic re-engagement."
Experts echo. Saad Ali: "US interest diversifies chains strategically." Rana: "From security to geo-economics – a good sign."
X trends: #RekoDiqGold 1M posts; #BalochRights 500K. Quetta rallies: 10,000 demand jobs. Karachi seminars: 5,000 attend FDI talks.
Toward a Mineral-Led Future: Reforms and Resilience
Unlocking $6-8 trillion demands resolve. The SIFC fast-tracks via one-window clearances; tax incentives lure FDI. Skills compacts with Japan, renewables with Saudi – per SDPI's Abid Suleri – build capacity beyond bailouts. Community stakes, environmental safeguards (ESCA plans for Reko Diq), and rail nets are imperatives.
Majid's verdict: "Risks exist, but dedication can reshape futures." Reforms roadmap: 2026 Minerals Act mandates 30% local equity. Training: 100,000 miners via Australia JV. Green: 50% renewables by 2030. Projections: $100B exports by 2040, 5% unemployment.
In Balochistan's dust, a new narrative brews – not curse, but catalyst. As HS-1 orbits overhead, Pakistan's minerals could fuel not just batteries, but a nation's ascent. From Karachi ports to Quetta markets, the hum of drills signals dawn. By 2047, a $1T economy beckons, minerals its bedrock.
