LEFKOSA, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus/ISTANBUL – As the sun rose over the divided island of Cyprus on Sunday morning, voters in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) streamed toward 777 polling stations, marking the commencement of the first round of the 2025 presidential election. Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. local time (0500 GMT), allowing the TRNC's 218,313 eligible voters to cast their ballots until 6 p.m. (1500 GMT). This election, the 11th since the TRNC's founding in 1983, is not merely a domestic affair but a high-stakes referendum on the island's future amid stalled peace talks, economic pressures, and shifting geopolitical alliances.
The process unfolded under tight security, with more than 2,000 police officers deployed across the TRNC to ensure order, according to reports from local authorities. In the capital Lefkoşa (Nicosia), long queues formed outside schools and community centers repurposed as voting sites, a scene repeated in Famagusta, Kyrenia, and Morphou. Elderly voters reminisced about past elections, while first-time participants – many young adults grappling with high unemployment and inflation – expressed cautious optimism about change. "This vote isn't just for a president; it's for our children's future," said 68-year-old retiree Ayşe Demir, casting her ballot at a Lefkoşa elementary school.
Incumbent President Ersin Tatar, seeking a second term as an independent candidate, faces stiff competition from a field of seven other contenders. Tatar, a vocal advocate for a two-state solution to the Cyprus dispute, has positioned his campaign around national sovereignty and closer ties with Turkey. His main rival, Tufan Erhürman of the center-left Republican Turkish Party (CTP), champions a return to federal reunification talks under UN auspices, appealing to those weary of isolation. The other candidates include independents Mehmet Hasgüler, Arif Salih Kırdağ, Ahmet Boran, and İbrahim Yazıcı, as well as Osman Zorba of the Cyprus Socialist Party. Notably, businessman Hüseyin Gürlek's name appeared on ballots despite his Saturday announcement withdrawing in favor of Tatar, a last-minute twist that could siphon votes to the incumbent.
To secure victory in this first round, a candidate must garner more than 50% of valid votes – an absolute majority. Should no one achieve this, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff within seven days, with the higher finisher claiming the five-year term. Early indicators from voter turnout suggested a robust participation rate, potentially exceeding 70%, buoyed by clear autumn weather and widespread media coverage. International observers, including a delegation from the Organization of Turkic States, monitored proceedings to uphold transparency, though the TRNC's limited global recognition – acknowledged solely by Turkey – tempers broader scrutiny.
The Cyprus conundrum traces back to 1974, when Turkey intervened militarily following a Greek-backed coup aimed at annexing the island to Athens. This followed intercommunal violence that unraveled the 1960 power-sharing Zurich-London agreements between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. The TRNC emerged in 1983 as a self-declared state in the north, controlling about 36% of the island's territory, while the Republic of Cyprus governs the south and holds EU membership. Decades of UN-mediated talks have yielded little, with the last major push – the 2017 Crans-Montana conference – collapsing over disagreements on security guarantees and property rights.
Tatar's 2020 victory, where he edged out Mustafa Akıncı in a runoff by a slim 51.7% to 48.3%, galvanized a shift toward the two-state paradigm. Backed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Tatar has pursued observer status in Turkic bodies and direct flights from Turkey, framing these as steps toward de facto recognition. "The era of futile federation talks is over," Tatar declared during a recent rally in Famagusta, emphasizing that Greek Cypriot intransigence necessitates sovereign equality. His platform also addresses domestic woes: soaring inflation, which hit 99% for food in 2022 amid the Turkish lira's devaluation and the Ukraine war's ripple effects, and youth emigration, with over 20% of under-30s leaving annually for better prospects.
Erhürman, a former prime minister who led a coalition government from 2018 to 2021, counters with a pro-EU vision. The CTP unanimously nominated him in April 2025, positioning him as a bridge to Brussels and Athens. "Reunification under a bizonal federation is viable and offers economic salvation," Erhürman argued at a September rally in Lefkoşa, where crowds waved EU flags alongside Turkish ones. His tenure saw modest reforms, including anti-corruption measures, but critics lambast the CTP's historical flirtations with Greek Cypriot overtures as naive. Erhürman polled around 21% in 2020's first round and is polling neck-and-neck with Tatar in recent surveys, potentially forcing a runoff.
The minor candidates add ideological diversity. Hasgüler, an academic and independent, pushes for environmental sustainability and youth empowerment, drawing from disaffected centrists. Kırdağ, a perennial runner-up with five prior bids, appeals to hardline nationalists with his calls for immediate TRNC recognition. Boran and Yazıcı, both independents, focus on economic liberalization, while Zorba's socialist platform critiques growing Turkish influence as cultural erosion. Gürlek's endorsement of Tatar could consolidate right-wing votes, analysts note, echoing the "Common Sense Consensus" alliance of June 2025 between Tatar's supporters and smaller parties.
Beyond personalities, the election underscores deeper fissures. Economic interdependence with Turkey – which provides over 30% of the TRNC's budget – fuels debates on autonomy. Protests erupted in April 2025 over a headscarf regulation perceived as undermining secularism, drawing 13,000 demonstrators led by teachers' unions. Corruption scandals, including a 2021 video implicating a prior prime minister, have eroded trust, with voters prioritizing meritocracy over geopolitics. Youth turnout could tip the scales; a 2024 survey by the Cyprus Policy Center found 55% of 18-25-year-olds favoring federation for EU access, versus 40% for two states.
Geopolitically, the vote reverberates in Ankara and beyond. Turkey hailed the TRNC parliament's October 15 resolution endorsing two states, viewing Tatar's re-election as validation. Erhürman, however, enjoys tacit EU support, with Nicosia warning that a Tatar win could "indefinitely" derail talks. Azerbaijan's COP29 hosting last year, where it greeted the Greek Cypriot leader as "president of Cyprus," highlighted the TRNC's isolation even among Turkic allies. Analysts like Serdar Denktaş, son of the TRNC's founding president, argue the real priority is internal: "Preserve our social fabric before chasing mirages abroad."
As polls hummed with activity, Tatar voted early in Lefkoşa, urging unity: "This is our sovereignty at stake." Erhürman, casting in Morphou, evoked hope: "A united Cyprus benefits all." By midday, turnout neared 40%, per preliminary Supreme Election Council data, signaling high engagement.
The TRNC's presidential role, while ceremonial in domestic governance, wields outsized foreign policy clout. The winner will represent Turkish Cypriots in UN forums and bilateral ties, shaping the island's trajectory in a volatile Eastern Mediterranean. With natural gas discoveries off Cyprus exacerbating tensions – Israel and Egypt aligning with the south, Turkey drilling unilaterally – this election could either entrench division or spark renewed dialogue.
Historical precedents loom large. Rauf Denktaş, TRNC founder, held office from 1985 to 2005, steadfastly rejecting federation. Incumbents rarely win re-election; Tatar's 2020 upset bucked the trend, but voter fatigue with status quo economics may not. Pre-election bans halted campaigning at 6 p.m. Saturday, leaving streets eerily quiet save for fluttering banners.
In Istanbul, Turkish officials watched closely, with Foreign Ministry statements reaffirming support for "the fraternal TRNC people's will." Expats, ineligible to vote but vocal online, amplified calls for transparency. As ballots piled up, one voter in Kyrenia captured the mood: "We're voting for dignity – whether in unity or independence."
Results are expected late Sunday, with exit polls hinting at a tight race likely headed to runoff. Whatever the outcome, this election crystallizes the TRNC's enduring quest: sovereignty in isolation or prosperity through compromise? For 218,313 voters, the answer unfolds in real time, echoing across a divided isle and its watchful neighbor.
