Since early August 2025, Ukraine has significantly escalated its military strategy, launching over 30 targeted strikes on Russian oil refineries and critical energy infrastructure. These attacks are designed to erode Russia’s financial ability to sustain its ongoing war efforts. As the world’s third-largest producer and second-largest exporter of crude oil, Russia heavily depends on its oil and gas revenues, which, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, accounted for approximately 30 percent of its 2024 national budget. This reliance makes the energy sector a prime target for Ukraine’s campaign to disrupt Moscow’s economic stability.
The Ukrainian strikes have proven effective, according to energy analysts. Homayoun Falakshahi, an analyst at the energy research group Kpler, noted that the attacks have reduced Russian refinery production by roughly 10 percent. This decline has caused significant disruptions in Russia’s energy supply chain, prompting Moscow to impose stringent measures to mitigate the impact. In response to the growing risk of fuel shortages, Russia has extended its ban on gasoline exports and restricted petroleum product exports until the end of 2025. These measures reflect the Kremlin’s attempt to stabilize domestic fuel supplies amid increasing pressure from Ukraine’s targeted campaign.
The effects of these disruptions are evident in Russia’s refinery output. According to Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad Energy, Russia’s refinery production dropped to an average of 4.9 million barrels per day by mid-September 2025, a reduction of approximately 400,000 barrels per day compared to the first half of the year. This shortfall has led to a significant widening of the price gap between Russian crude oil and refined petroleum products. Despite a global decline in crude oil prices, Russian consumers are facing rising costs at the pump. Data from Russia’s state statistics agency, Rosstat, indicates that retail gasoline prices as of September 1, 2025, were 6.7 percent higher than at the end of 2024. This increase has placed additional financial strain on Russian households, compounding the economic challenges posed by the ongoing conflict.
The damage to Russia’s refining infrastructure is not easily reversible. Shah emphasized that repairing and restoring damaged refineries to full operational capacity is a time-intensive process. This prolonged recovery period exacerbates Russia’s economic vulnerabilities, particularly as global crude oil prices continue to decline, further squeezing the country’s revenue streams. Bjarne Schieldrop, an analyst at SEB Bank, warned that Russia’s situation could deteriorate further as Ukraine refines its tactics and becomes more adept at targeting key energy infrastructure. Schieldrop suggested that if the attacks persist, Russia may face even greater challenges, potentially forcing the Kremlin to halt exports of refined petroleum products entirely and implement domestic fuel rationing to manage shortages.
The broader geopolitical context adds complexity to Russia’s predicament. Keith Kellogg, the U.S. envoy to Ukraine, has recently signaled the possibility of allowing Kyiv to conduct long-range strikes on Russian territory using American-supplied weapons. Such a development could further intensify Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure, potentially targeting facilities deeper within Russian borders. This prospect raises the stakes for Moscow, as it grapples with both external military pressure and internal economic constraints.
Russia’s attempts to redirect crude oil originally intended for domestic refineries have encountered significant logistical hurdles. The country’s pool of willing international buyers is also shrinking, as global markets adjust to the risks associated with Russian oil. While Russia has managed to maintain some export markets, particularly in countries like India, the overall decline in demand for Russian crude has compounded the economic strain caused by Ukraine’s strikes.
Western sanctions, intended to cripple Russia’s economy, have so far fallen short of their objectives, according to energy experts. Adi Imsirovic, director of Surrey Clean Energy consultancy, argued that the sanctions have been largely ineffective due to their delayed implementation. This lag allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to establish a parallel trading system, enabling Moscow to circumvent some of the restrictions. For instance, India has continued to purchase Russian crude despite Washington’s efforts to impose higher tariffs on Indian goods. This resilience in Russia’s trade relationships has helped mitigate the impact of sanctions, but it has not fully insulated the country from the economic fallout of Ukraine’s attacks.
The withdrawal of Western oil companies from Russia has had a more lasting impact. The exodus of these firms has led to a sharp decline in investment in Russia’s energy sector, limiting the country’s ability to expand or even maintain its oil production capacity. Falakshahi noted that Russia’s current oil production stands at approximately 9.25 million barrels per day, with a maximum capacity of 9.45 million barrels per day. This represents a significant drop from the pre-war production level of around 10 million barrels per day. The reduction in production capacity, combined with the ongoing disruptions to refining operations, has placed Russia in a precarious position as it seeks to sustain its war effort while managing domestic economic stability.
Ukraine’s strategy of targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure highlights the critical role of oil and gas in Moscow’s war economy. By disrupting refinery operations and reducing Russia’s ability to generate revenue from petroleum exports, Kyiv is effectively weakening the financial foundation that supports Russia’s military campaign. The strikes have not only reduced refinery output but also exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s energy supply chain, from production to distribution. As Ukraine continues to refine its tactics and potentially gains access to more advanced weaponry, the pressure on Russia’s energy sector is likely to intensify.
The broader implications of Ukraine’s campaign extend beyond the immediate economic impact on Russia. The disruption of Russian oil exports could have ripple effects on global energy markets, particularly in countries that have relied on Russian crude and refined products. While global crude oil prices have been declining, the reduction in Russia’s export capacity could create localized supply shortages, potentially driving up prices in certain regions. This dynamic underscores the interconnected nature of global energy markets and the far-reaching consequences of the conflict in Ukraine.
For Russia, the challenges posed by Ukraine’s strikes are compounded by the country’s broader economic difficulties. The combination of declining oil revenues, rising domestic fuel prices, and limited investment in the energy sector has created a perfect storm of economic pressures. If Ukraine’s attacks continue to escalate, Russia may be forced to make difficult choices, such as prioritizing domestic fuel supplies over exports or implementing austerity measures to conserve resources. These measures could further erode public support for the war and exacerbate social and economic tensions within Russia.
The international community is closely monitoring the situation, particularly as the United States considers expanding its support for Ukraine’s military operations. The potential authorization of long-range strikes using American weapons could mark a significant escalation in the conflict, with profound implications for Russia’s energy sector and overall war effort. For now, Ukraine’s strategy of targeting Russia’s oil infrastructure has proven to be a powerful tool in its efforts to weaken Moscow’s economic and military resilience.
As the conflict continues, the interplay between military strategy, economic warfare, and global energy dynamics will remain a critical factor in shaping the outcome of the war. Ukraine’s ability to sustain its campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure will depend on its access to resources, intelligence, and international support. Meanwhile, Russia faces the daunting task of repairing its damaged refineries, maintaining domestic fuel supplies, and navigating an increasingly challenging global trade environment. The stakes are high for both sides, as the outcome of this economic and military struggle could have far-reaching consequences for the region and beyond.
In conclusion, Ukraine’s intensified attacks on Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure represent a strategic effort to undermine Moscow’s financial capacity to sustain its war. The strikes have already disrupted Russia’s refinery production, driven up domestic fuel prices, and exposed vulnerabilities in the country’s energy sector. While Western sanctions have had limited success, the withdrawal of foreign investment and Ukraine’s targeted campaign have placed significant pressure on Russia’s economy. As the conflict evolves, the interplay between military strategy and economic warfare will continue to shape the trajectory of the war, with global energy markets and geopolitical dynamics hanging in the balance.
