Fernando Dias, widely regarded as the main challenger, congratulated voters for their participation, describing the high turnout as a clear demonstration of the people’s desire for change. Addressing supporters in Bissau, he declared that his campaign’s internal data showed a first-round victory. “We already have our data and we know what the result is. This election was won in the first round. We are just waiting for the competent entity to confirm,” Dias said, asserting that his candidacy had secured a lead in nearly all regions. Earlier, he had denounced alleged attempts to interfere with the vote-tallying process.
Dias, who ran as an independent but enjoyed the crucial backing of former Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira, capitalised on widespread frustration with the incumbent’s five-year tenure. Pereira, leader of the historic African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) — the party that led the armed liberation struggle against Portugal and governed for decades after independence in 1974 — was disqualified from running this year after the Supreme Court ruled that his coalition had submitted candidacy papers late. Critics called the decision politically motivated and a blatant attempt to sideline the country’s most powerful opposition figure.
In a swift counter-claim, Oscar Barbosa, spokesman for President Embalo’s campaign, told reporters in the capital that the incumbent had also won outright and that “there would be no runoff.” Embalo’s coalition, which brings together more than 20 parties under the banner “Nô Kumpu Guinée,” insisted their numbers confirmed a first-round triumph.
The National Electoral Commission (CNE) has pledged to announce the final results by Thursday, November 27, and has repeatedly warned candidates, parties, and media against declaring results prematurely, stressing that only the CNE has the authority to do so.
More than 65 percent of Guinea-Bissau’s roughly 1.1 million registered voters turned out on November 23, a strong showing for a nation where elections are often marred by low participation and logistical difficulties. Twelve candidates were on the ballot, but the contest rapidly narrowed to a two-horse race between Embalo and Dias.
International observers, including missions from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the African Union (AU), and the Community of Portuguese-Language Countries (CPLP), deployed over 200 monitors across the country. On Monday, the heads of these missions urged calm and restraint, asking all sides to wait for the official announcement. Ghana’s Ambassador Baba Kamara, who led the ECOWAS observation team, described the voting process as generally peaceful and well-organised, with polling stations opening on time and few serious incidents reported.
The tense standoff over results comes against the backdrop of Guinea-Bissau’s long history of political instability. Since independence in 1974, the small West African nation has suffered at least nine successful coups and numerous failed attempts. President Embalo, a former army brigadier-general who took office in February 2020 after a bitterly disputed runoff, has himself claimed to have survived multiple coup plots, including a violent attack on the government palace in February 2022 and heavy fighting in Bissau in December 2023 that he labelled an attempted takeover. In October 2025, weeks before the election, several senior military officers were arrested on suspicion of plotting against him.
Opposition figures, including Domingos Simões Pereira, have accused Embalo of using allegations of coup plots to justify dissolving the opposition-dominated parliament in 2023, extending his own mandate, and sidelining political rivals through the judiciary. The disqualification of Pereira and the effective exclusion of PAIGC from fielding its own candidate marked an unprecedented moment in the country’s post-independence history and deepened perceptions of creeping authoritarianism.
Economically, Guinea-Bissau remains one of the world’s poorest countries, heavily dependent on cashew nut exports and plagued by chronic power shortages, youth unemployment, and entrenched corruption. It has also gained notoriety as a transit hub for cocaine moving from Latin America to Europe, with drug-trafficking networks widely believed to have infiltrated state institutions.
As the CNE continues consolidating results from across the country’s 39 electoral districts and its diaspora polling stations, the coming days will be critical. A clear first-round winner would mark a rare democratic milestone for Guinea-Bissau; a contested outcome or narrow margin requiring a second round could plunge the fragile nation back into uncertainty and potential violence.
For now, both camps remain defiant, supporters have taken to the streets in several towns, and security forces have been placed on heightened alert. Regional bodies and international partners are watching closely, aware that the outcome of this election could either reinforce a fragile democratic path or add Guinea-Bissau to the growing list of West African states sliding back toward military rule or prolonged crisis.
