BOGOTA, Colombia – In a dramatic turnaround to months of escalating trade tensions, Brazilian Vice President and Trade Minister Geraldo Alckmin declared a major diplomatic win on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order removing steep 40% tariffs on 238 key Brazilian agribusiness exports. Alckmin, who spearheaded the negotiations, hailed the decision as "the biggest breakthrough in negotiations between Brazil and the United States," marking a pivotal shift from crisis to collaboration in bilateral relations. The move, effective retroactively from November 13, 2025, exempts vital products like coffee, beef, cocoa, mangoes, coconuts, pineapples, acai, bananas, oranges, tomatoes, and fruit juices, aiming to ease rising food costs for American consumers amid domestic supply shortages.
Speaking to reporters in Brasilia, Alckmin emphasized the rapid progress achieved in just three months of intensive diplomacy. "This is a major step forward, but we want to exclude more products and move forward in the negotiation," he said, underscoring Brazil's determination to secure broader exemptions. Preliminary estimates from Brazilian trade officials indicate that the share of exports facing the highest 50% tariffs has dropped from 36% to 22%, a significant relief for an economy heavily reliant on agriculture, which accounts for over 20% of Brazil's GDP and employs millions in rural areas. The tariffs, initially imposed in July 2025, had disrupted supply chains, with Brazilian coffee stockpiles in U.S. bonded warehouses nearly depleted and beef prices spiking by up to 15% in American markets.
The breakthrough comes against the backdrop of a contentious U.S.-Brazil trade dispute rooted in both economic grievances and political animosities. Trump, returning to the White House in January 2025 after his 2024 election victory, swiftly targeted Brazil with additional duties, citing "unfair trade practices" and the ongoing prosecution of his close ally, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, a far-right populist who echoed Trump's 2020 election denialism, was convicted in September 2025 by Brazil's Supreme Court on charges of plotting a military coup to overturn his 2022 electoral defeat to current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The landmark trial, spanning months of testimony from military commanders and co-conspirators, resulted in a 27-year-and-three-month prison sentence for Bolsonaro on five counts, including leading an armed criminal organization, attempting to abolish the democratic order, and organizing a coup. The verdict, delivered by a 4-1 majority on the court's panel, described the plot as a "virus" threatening Brazil's institutions, with evidence showing Bolsonaro had solicited military support and spread baseless claims of electoral fraud.
Trump's July executive order, which escalated tariffs to 40–50% on a wide array of Brazilian goods, was framed as retaliation for what he called a "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro, whom he praised as a "good president and good man" during a White House briefing. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed this sentiment, labeling the conviction an "unjust" political persecution and threatening further responses. The tariffs extended beyond agriculture to include items like aircraft parts and fertilizers, affecting $15 billion in annual bilateral trade and prompting warnings from U.S. businesses about inflation in grocery aisles. Brazil's response was measured yet firm: Lula vowed "reciprocity" under the nation's Economic Reciprocity Act, authorizing countermeasures like dollar-for-dollar tariffs on U.S. imports, while simultaneously pursuing World Trade Organization disputes and backchannel talks.
Lula, a leftist icon in his third term, adopted a strategy blending defiance with pragmatism, betting that Trump's aggressive posture would falter under domestic U.S. pressure from consumers and importers. "We don't want an emperor—we are sovereign nations," Lula declared at the July 2025 BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro, where Brazil rallied emerging economies against unilateral tariff threats. High-level meetings followed, including a pivotal October 2025 summit between Lula and Trump in Malaysia, where discussions on rare earth minerals, data centers, and tariff reductions laid groundwork for de-escalation. A subsequent phone call between the leaders sealed the initial exemptions, with refunds promised for duties paid since November 13.
Brazilian President Lula celebrated the tariff lift in a video posted on X (formerly Twitter), calling it "a victory for dialogue, diplomacy, and common sense." He expressed partial gratitude to Trump, adding, "It's not everything I want, it's not everything Brazil needs, but it's an important step," and hinted at an in-person meeting soon to advance talks. Industry groups echoed the optimism: The Brazilian Beef Exporters Association praised the decision for restoring market competitiveness, projecting a 10–15% uptick in U.S. beef imports by year's end. The coffee exporters' council termed it a "historic victory," noting global coffee prices plunged Friday as U.S. roasters anticipated cheaper Brazilian beans, with thousands of bags poised to flood markets from bonded storage.
Economically, the relief is timely for Brazil, the world's top beef and coffee exporter, where agribusiness drives $150 billion in annual exports. The U.S. ranks as Brazil's second-largest market, absorbing 12% of its agricultural output. Pre-tariff data from January to June 2025 showed Brazilian exports to the U.S. up 4.37%, while U.S. sales to Brazil surged 11.48%, highlighting an imbalance Trump sought to address but now appears to be softening. Analysts predict the exemptions could boost Brazil's trade surplus by $2–3 billion in 2026, aiding Lula's agenda ahead of the 2026 presidential race. However, 22% of exports remain under the 50% levy, including soy and ethanol, leaving room for friction.
Critics in the U.S., including Democrats and consumer advocates, have lambasted Trump's tariff reversals as an admission of policy failure, with polls showing 58% of Americans viewing his trade actions as harmful to the economy. Brazilian professor Oliver Stuenkel called it a "significant political victory for the Lula administration," crediting a "calm and pragmatic negotiation strategy." As negotiations continue—potentially encompassing tech regulations and critical minerals—the episode underscores the volatility of Trump-era trade policy, where personal alliances like his with Bolsonaro intertwined with global economics.
In Bogota for a regional summit, Lula's foreign minister Mauro Vieira reiterated Brazil's commitment to "frank dialogue," signaling optimism for full resolution by mid-2026. For now, the tariff lift not only stabilizes prices—U.S. coffee futures fell 5% Friday—but symbolizes resilient diplomacy in a polarized world. As Alckmin noted, "From crisis to contact in three months—this is the power of negotiation."
