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As of November 2025, the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in California's 2026 gubernatorial election has become one of the most unpredictable and expansive contests in the state's modern history. With Newsom's second term ending in January 2027, more than two dozen candidates have already declared or are seriously exploring bids — including former presidential candidates, current and former members of Congress, a prominent county sheriff, two women who could make history as California’s first female governor, a former U.S. Cabinet secretary, and at least one billionaire, with another still considering a run.
The primary election is set for June 2, 2026, under California’s top-two, nonpartisan system: the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the November general election. Candidates can begin the formal qualification process as early as December 2025, but the field continues to grow rather than consolidate.
The governorship pays $242,000 a year, but its real value lies in the national and global platform it provides. California, home to nearly 40 million people and the world’s fifth-largest economy, gives its governor outsized influence on trade, climate policy, technology regulation, and immigration enforcement. Gavin Newsom has used the office as a bully pulpit against President Donald Trump and is widely expected to launch a 2028 presidential campaign once his term ends. His successor will inherit the same megaphone — along with a daunting set of crises: a homelessness emergency affecting more than 180,000 people, persistent housing unaffordability, multibillion-dollar future budget deficits, and the threat of federal funding cuts under the second Trump administration. Newsom has declined to endorse anyone, leaving the race completely open.
Democrats Dominate — But Must Differentiate Themselves
Democrats are overwhelming favorites to keep the seat. No Republican has won a statewide race in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 2006 reelection, and Democrats currently outnumber Republicans nearly 2-to-1 among registered voters (roughly 45% Democratic, 25% Republican, and 22% no party preference). Yet the sheer number of Democratic candidates creates its own challenge: how to stand out when nearly everyone agrees on the big issues — tackling the cost-of-living crisis, expanding healthcare access to healthcare and housing, and protecting California from Trump administration policies.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has staked out the most explicitly centrist lane, highlighting his record of cutting certain business taxes, increasing the LAPD by thousands of officers, and overseeing a double-digit drop in violent crime during his tenure (2005–2013). Billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, who entered the race on November 19, 2025 after spending hundreds of millions on past Democratic causes and his own 2020 presidential bid, is campaigning on breaking up utility monopolies to lower California’s second-highest-in-the-nation electricity rates.
Other major Democratic contenders include:
- Former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, known for viral whiteboard interrogations of corporate CEOs
- Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra
- Former State Controller Betty Yee
- State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond
- Real estate developer and poker-industry mogul Stephen Cloobeck
- Former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon
Attorney General Rob Bonta, long considered a potential frontrunner, initially said he would not run but is now actively reconsidering amid pressure from donors and party leaders.
Democratic strategist Michael Trujillo summed up the state of play: “It’s a five-way, six-way jump ball and that ball could go in any direction. Any one of these Democrats running currently could be our next governor.” Because of California’s top-two primary and the large field, the two candidates who advance to November could do so with historically low vote shares — possibly 20% or less — decided by just a percentage point or two.
Early Scandals Have Already Scorched the Field
Even before the campaign officially begins, controversy has damaged two perceived frontrunners.
Katie Porter launched her campaign in March 2025 with strong momentum and national name recognition. That momentum collapsed in early October when two unflattering videos went viral. The first showed her threatening to walk out of a live TV interview with CBS Sacramento after growing frustrated with questions about reaching Trump-leaning voters. Days later, a 2021 clip surfaced of Porter loudly berating a staffer during a virtual meeting. The backlash was swift and brutal; rivals questioned her temperament, late-night hosts mocked her, and her poll numbers dropped noticeably. Porter apologized and rallied supporters, but the episode raised lasting doubts about her readiness for the governorship.
Xavier Becerra has been dragged into a separate scandal involving his longtime aide Sean McCluskie. Federal prosecutors allege McCluskie orchestrated a scheme to steal more than $200,000 from one of Becerra’s old California campaign accounts by funneling money through shell entities and a no-show job for McCluskie’s wife. McCluskie has pleaded guilty and is cooperating with authorities. Becerra himself is not accused of wrongdoing but acknowledged in interviews that he approved the payments on McCluskie’s recommendation without knowing they were improper. Opponents, led by Villaraigosa, quickly released ads questioning Becerra’s judgment and oversight.
Can a Republican Sneak Into the General Election?
Despite California’s deep blue tilt, Republicans see a path. In the 2024 U.S. Senate primary, political novice and former baseball star Steve Garvey finished second and advanced to the general election by consolidating the Republican vote while three prominent Democrats split the rest. GOP strategists hope for a repeat in 2026.
The two strongest Republican contenders are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — a vocal Trump supporter who gained national attention for refusing to enforce certain COVID-19 mandates — and conservative commentator and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, who has called for abolishing the state income tax and rolling back environmental regulations. Both are polling in the mid-to-high teens among likely primary voters, enough to potentially claim second place if the Democratic vote remains fractured.
Wild Cards Still Lurking
Billionaire shopping-mall developer Rick Caruso, who narrowly lost the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral race after spending more than $100 million of his own money, has not ruled out a gubernatorial bid. Many insiders believe he is waiting to see whether the Democratic field narrows or another major scandal erupts before deciding.
As California heads into an election year overshadowed by national political turbulence, affordability woes, and lingering questions about governance, the 2026 governor’s race remains remarkably fluid. With no dominant frontrunner, multiple candidates nursing self-inflicted wounds, and a real (if slim) chance of a Republican breakthrough, the contest is shaping up as one of the most chaotic and consequential in decades.
