OTTAWA — In a nail-biting climax to weeks of parliamentary suspense, Prime Minister Mark Carney's minority Liberal government eked out a 170-168 victory on Monday evening to pass its ambitious CAN$141 billion ($100 billion USD) federal budget, narrowly dodging the specter of a winter federal election that could have plunged Canada into fresh political chaos. The vote, which unfolded in the House of Commons after hours of intense debate, marked the third and final confidence test for the budget and underscored the fragility of Carney's administration just eight months after his Liberals secured a minority mandate in the April 2025 federal election.
The outcome was anything but assured in the 343-seat chamber, where the Liberals hold 160 seats—well short of the 172 needed for a majority. As the clock ticked toward the evening session, whispers of potential defections and strategic abstentions filled the corridors of Parliament Hill. The budget, unveiled by Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne on November 4, proposes a staggering $141.4 billion in new spending over five years, offset by $51.7 billion in projected savings, including public service reductions. It projects a $78.3 billion deficit for the 2025-26 fiscal year—more than double initial forecasts—driven by escalating U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump and investments in defense, housing, and infrastructure to bolster Canada's economic resilience.
The drama peaked in the final hours. Conservative MP Chris d'Entremont, representing West Nova in Nova Scotia, had defected to the Liberals earlier in November, citing dissatisfaction with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's "negative" approach and praising Carney's vision for addressing regional priorities like softwood lumber exports amid U.S. trade pressures. D'Entremont's switch provided a crucial one-vote cushion and fueled speculation of deeper rifts within the Conservative caucus, which now holds 144 seats following the spring election. Poilievre, who lost his own seat in Carleton to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy in April, dismissed the defection as a "distraction" but faced mounting internal unrest.
Adding to the tension, two New Democratic Party (NDP) MPs and two Conservatives opted to abstain, a move that effectively neutralized potential opposition without formally crossing lines. The NDP, reduced to just seven seats in the 2025 election—a sharp drop from 25 in 2021—has been navigating its post-Jagmeet Singh era under interim Leader Don Davies, a Vancouver Kingsway MP. Davies assumed the interim role in May 2025 after Singh's resignation on election night. Speaking to reporters post-vote, Davies acknowledged the budget's shortcomings on social programs but defended the abstentions as a pragmatic choice: "It failed to meet the moment for working Canadians, but triggering an election just six months after the last one would have been irresponsible chaos."
The pivotal moment arrived courtesy of Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, the sole Green MP in the Commons after her party's dismal 2025 showing. May, representing Saanich—Gulf Islands since 2011, had been wavering, decrying the budget's "deficient" environmental provisions despite its $115 billion infrastructure push, including clean-energy incentives for LNG terminals. In a morning meeting with Carney—followed by a public commitment during Question Period—the prime minister pledged "firm" adherence to Canada's Paris Agreement climate targets, including emissions reductions and Indigenous-led conservation corridors. "I was leaning no, but this assurance on our legally binding obligations swayed me," May told journalists, emphasizing her vote was for stability over perfection. Her yes sealed the deal, turning what Liberal insiders called a "50-50 proposition" into a win.
The 20-minute vote itself was electric. As the electronic bells rang and MPs filed in, cheers erupted from the Liberal benches when the tally flashed: 170 in favor, 168 against, with the abstentions ensuring no ties or defeats. Carney, the former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor who assumed the premiership in March 2025 after a landslide Liberal leadership win, exhaled visibly from the front bench, joined by Champagne in applause. "This is a budget for a strong Canada—one that invests in our people, our security, and our future amid global headwinds," Carney said post-vote, nodding to the $30 billion defense boost and $25 billion housing fund aimed at countering affordability woes exacerbated by U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports like aluminum and lumber.
Poilievre, however, lambasted the result as a "fiscal suicide pact." The Conservative leader, whose party surged to 38% of the popular vote in April but fell short of a majority, argued the plan would "balloon the deficit to unsustainable levels," saddling future generations with debt while ignoring tax relief for families. Yet, with two more budget-related votes looming in the coming months, Poilievre vowed relentless scrutiny: "Canadians will hold Mark Carney accountable at the next election, whenever it comes."
Beyond the procedural intrigue, the budget's passage signals Carney's intent to pivot Canada toward "nation-building" amid economic turbulence. Unveiled against a backdrop of Trump's reimposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods—threatening $200 billion in annual trade—the plan channels funds into diversifying export corridors to Asia and Europe, including $60 billion for nuclear and critical minerals projects. Critics like the Bloc Québécois decried insufficient Quebec-specific investments, while Indigenous leaders praised the $10 billion for reconciliation initiatives but called for more enforceable timelines.
Economists are divided. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce hailed the infrastructure surge as a "timely stimulus" to offset GDP drags from trade wars, projecting 1.2% growth in 2026. But fiscal hawks warn the deficit trajectory—rising to $78.3 billion from $42.2 billion forecast last December—risks inflation spikes and higher interest rates, especially with Bank of Canada rates hovering at 4.25%. "This isn't austerity; it's ambition," countered Champagne, pointing to $20 billion in public service efficiencies through attrition and digitization.
For Carney, a 59-year-old economist born in Fort Smith, N.W.T., and raised in Edmonton, the win cements his transition from global finance titan to political survivor. Sworn in March 2025 after ousting Justin Trudeau amid sagging polls, Carney called a snap April election, framing it as a referendum on sovereignty. His Liberals clinched 160 seats, buoyed by anti-Trump sentiment. Yet, the minority status demands ongoing horse-trading, as evidenced by Monday's alliances.
As Parliament adjourns for the holidays, the budget's implementation begins: $5 billion for affordable housing starts in 2026, enhanced child-care expansions, and defense procurements for Arctic sovereignty. But with Poilievre's Conservatives eyeing weaknesses—such as rising housing costs—and the NDP plotting a full leadership race by mid-2026, stability feels tenuous. Davies hinted at potential supply-and-confidence pacts post-budget, while May positioned the Greens as a "green conscience" for cross-aisle deals.
In Trenton, Ontario—a community hit hard by tariff-induced auto sector layoffs—the relief was palpable. Local Liberal MP Ryan McKinnon hosted a community forum Tuesday, touting $2 billion in retraining funds. "This budget buys us time to fight back economically," said one resident. Yet skeptics remain wary of long-term debt implications.
The vote's echoes will linger into 2026, as Canada grapples with a polarized globe. Carney's narrow escape not only spares voters another poll but reaffirms his government's mandate to navigate trade storms. Still, in the unforgiving math of minorities, every ballot counts—and Tuesday's dawn brought cautious optimism to a capital wearied by brinkmanship.
