Tashkent, Uzbekistan – Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev hailed the burgeoning tripartite gas initiative with Russia and Uzbekistan as a resounding success on November 15, 2025, during a press briefing in Tashkent. The announcement, made amid a whirlwind of diplomatic engagements, underscores Central Asia's evolving role as a pivotal energy corridor, bridging Eurasian powers while navigating geopolitical headwinds from Western sanctions to Asian market demands. Speaking to reporters after bilateral talks with Uzbek counterpart Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Tokayev described the project's outcomes as "encouraging," emphasizing its potential to stabilize regional energy supplies and foster economic interdependence. "The Russia-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan gas project is showing successful results. Through joint efforts, we intend to increase gas transit volumes," Tokayev stated, adding that "there are promising opportunities for broadening collaboration in the petroleum and nuclear sectors."
This endorsement comes at a critical juncture for Central Asia, a resource-rich region grappling with domestic energy shortages, climate vulnerabilities, and the ripple effects of Russia's pivot away from European markets following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The tripartite framework, first floated by Russian President Vladimir Putin in late 2022 as a "gas union," envisions coordinated pipelines and infrastructure to channel Russian natural gas southward through Kazakhstan's vast steppes to Uzbekistan's industrial heartlands—and potentially onward to China. What began as tentative talks has matured into tangible flows: In June 2023, Uzbekistan inked a landmark procurement deal with Russia's state-owned Gazprom, initiating deliveries of up to 9 million cubic meters daily via Kazakhstan's pipeline network just months later in October. By mid-October 2025, Moscow confirmed Gazprom was fulfilling an annual contract for approximately 7.7 billion cubic meters of gas routed through Kazakhstan, a volume that has already exceeded initial projections and signals scalability.
The project's momentum reflects broader strategic imperatives. Uzbekistan, once a net exporter, became a gas importer in 2023 as domestic production dipped amid aging fields and rising industrial demand, which hit 48.4 billion cubic meters in 2022 and is projected to climb further. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, leverages its geographic centrality—boasting over 3,000 kilometers of shared border with Russia—to monetize transit fees and integrate its own 18.6 billion cubic meter annual consumption with surplus Russian supplies. For Russia, the corridor diversifies export routes, mitigating losses from Europe's sharp curtailment of Gazprom imports, which plummeted from 155 billion cubic meters in 2021 to under 40 billion by 2024. Gazprom's 2024 deliveries to Uzbekistan alone surged 4.4-fold to 5.64 billion cubic meters, underscoring the route's viability.
Tokayev's upbeat assessment follows a packed itinerary that highlights Astana's deft multi-vector diplomacy. Just days prior, on November 11-12, he wrapped a two-day state visit to Moscow, where he and Putin elevated bilateral ties to a "comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance" via a joint declaration. The Kremlin talks delved into energy synergies, including rare earth metals extraction and sanctions workarounds for Russian oil firms like Rosneft and Lukoil, whose U.S. penalties have snarled Caspian exports. Putin, flanked by Kazakh and Russian flags at the Kremlin, reiterated Moscow's "great importance" to the tripartite gas scheme, noting its role in countering global isolation. The visit, marked by ceremonial flourishes like Su-35 fighter jet escorts for Tokayev's aircraft, evoked the "eternal friendship" Tokayev invoked in a pre-arrival op-ed for Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
From Moscow, Tokayev flew directly to Tashkent for a November 14-16 state visit, layering bilateral Uzbek-Kazakh momentum atop the multilateral stage. On November 15, he and Mirziyoyev co-launched over a dozen joint ventures at the Supreme Interstate Council, including a petrochemical complex in Uzbekistan's Kashkadarya region, a multi-industry logistics hub near Tashkent, and residential projects like the "Astana" quarter in New Tashkent—totaling billions in cross-border investment. Mirziyoyev bestowed Uzbekistan's highest friendship honor, the Oliy Darajali Dustlik Order, on Tokayev, symbolizing the duo's personal rapport forged since Mirziyoyev's 2016 reforms thawed decades of post-Soviet chill. Trade between the neighbors, already up 25% year-on-year to $12 billion through September 2025, is eyed to hit $15 billion by year's end, fueled by streamlined borders and shared rail links like the Darbaza-Maktaaral line.
Tokayev's Tashkent stop serves as a prelude to the Seventh Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Heads of State on November 16, a forum Mirziyoyev pioneered in 2017 to foster "trust-building" sans great-power meddling. Gathering leaders from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—plus honorary guest Azerbaijan's Ilham Aliyev—the summit anticipates a slew of pacts: a 2025-2027 Industrial Cooperation Action Plan, new border trade zones, and protocols on water-energy sharing to avert disputes over shared rivers like the Amu Darya. With the region's population cresting 80 million and bound for 100 million by 2050, Mirziyoyev framed the talks as a "new milestone" for a "stable, interconnected, and prosperous Central Asia," spotlighting youth-driven innovation and green transitions. A landmark 2025 border delimitation among Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan exemplifies the format's efficacy in resolving flashpoints.
Yet, the gas initiative's triumph is no panacea. Environmentalists warn of methane leaks from aging Soviet-era pipes, like the Central Asia-Center system, which was reversed in 2023 to accommodate northward-to-south flows. Kazakhstan's own gas deficit, projected at 4.8 billion cubic meters by 2025, strains domestic allocations, while Uzbekistan's imports—priced at a concessional $160 per 1,000 cubic meters—spark debates on long-term dependency. Geopolitically, Astana's balancing act shines: Tokayev's November 7 C5+1 summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington yielded rare earths deals, contrasting Moscow's overtures and Beijing's Belt and Road inroads. As Tokayev noted post-Trump, it heralds a "new era" for U.S.-Central Asia ties, blending energy security with diversification.
Looking ahead, the tripartite pact eyes LNG expansions and nuclear forays, with Kazakhstan's 2024 Gazprom roadmap eyeing 11 billion cubic meters annual transit by 2026—quadrupling current levels. At the consultative meeting, energy will loom large, potentially integrating the gas union into a regional framework that includes Turkmenistan's vast reserves. Analysts see this as Central Asia's bid for agency: not just pipelines, but a blueprint for sovereignty in a multipolar world.
Tokayev's words in Tashkent encapsulated the optimism: "We aim to boost gas transit volumes through concerted efforts." Sunday's consultative meeting will test whether this momentum can solidify into lasting regional architecture. With verifiable strides in volumes and ventures, the region's energy narrative is rewriting itself—one cubic meter at a time.
