The framework's approval comes at a pivotal moment in the conflict, now entering its fourth year, with Russian forces reporting incremental advances along eastern front lines while Ukrainian cities endure intensified missile and drone barrages. Overnight strikes on Ternopil, a western Ukrainian city, claimed at least 10 lives and injured dozens more, highlighting the urgent human cost that has prompted renewed calls for de-escalation from global leaders. As of Thursday, the death toll from the war exceeds 500,000, including civilians and combatants, with millions displaced and Ukraine's economy contracting by an estimated 35% since the invasion began in February 2022, according to United Nations assessments.
Key architects of the 28-point plan include Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, real estate magnate Steve Witkoff, Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law with prior experience in Middle East diplomacy. The proposal is structured around four core pillars: immediate measures for peace in Ukraine, bilateral and multilateral security guarantees, bolstering European stability, and outlining future U.S. relations with both Moscow and Kyiv. While specifics remain under wraps pending further negotiations, the senior official revealed that the plan incorporates "elements Ukraine wants and needs for a durable peace," such as robust assurances against future aggression, potentially involving NATO-like commitments without full membership. It also addresses Russia's long-standing demands for neutrality in Ukraine's foreign policy and limits on its military capabilities, echoing maximalist positions that Kyiv has previously rejected as tantamount to capitulation.
The Gaza analogy is particularly telling. Trump's October 2025 20-point Gaza deal, which halted hostilities between Israel and Hamas after over two years of conflict, served as a blueprint for rapid, high-level mediation that prioritized phased ceasefires, hostage releases, and reconstruction aid tied to demilitarization zones. That agreement, brokered amid intense U.S. pressure on both sides, has held tenuously, with humanitarian corridors facilitating aid flows and reducing civilian casualties by 70% in the initial months, per Israeli and Palestinian monitors. Administration insiders suggest the Ukraine plan adopts a similar "flexibility-first" approach, aiming to produce a written document ahead of a potential Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, though no date has been confirmed.
Consultations with Russia have been central to the plan's evolution. Late last month, Witkoff hosted Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund and a key Kremlin envoy on Ukraine, for three days of closed-door talks in Miami, Florida. Dmitriev, whose U.S. sanctions were temporarily lifted to enable the visit, described the discussions as "very productive," noting that "the Russian position is really being heard" for the first time in years. The meetings built on principles outlined during the August 2025 Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage, Alaska, where the leaders met at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson for high-stakes talks that yielded no immediate ceasefire but opened channels for economic cooperation, including tentative ExxonMobil-Rosneft deals on Arctic energy projects. That summit, marked by a brief joint press conference and leaked State Department documents revealing luncheon details, was criticized as a "gift to Putin" by Western analysts for restoring his global stature without concessions on occupied territories.
Yet, the plan's rollout has exposed fractures in the diplomatic landscape. Three U.S. officials confirmed that the framework has not been formally presented to Kyiv, leaving Ukraine on the periphery of its own peace process. A source close to the Ukrainian government and a European diplomat echoed this, stating that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's team was briefed only on "broad contours" without opportunities for input or detailed briefings. Ukrainian officials perceive the timing as suspiciously opportunistic, coinciding with an explosive corruption scandal that has ensnared Zelenskyy's inner circle and eroded public trust at a vulnerable juncture.
The scandal, unveiled by Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP) on November 9, involves an alleged $100 million kickback scheme in the state energy sector, implicated in blackouts exacerbated by Russian strikes. Wiretap recordings and court testimonies have spotlighted figures like former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov—codename "Che Guevara" in the probe—who faces charges of illicit enrichment totaling over $1.3 million. Energy Minister German Galushchenko and Justice Minister Anna Grynchuk resigned this week, while Zelensky imposed sanctions on businessman Arseniy Mindich, a former associate. The High Anti-Corruption Court ordered Chernyshov's pretrial detention, amplifying perceptions of a "blood money" operation amid wartime sacrifices. Opposition leaders, including Petro Poroshenko's party, have decried the affair as shattering Ukraine's wartime unity, delaying the 2026 budget vote and fueling demands for anti-graft reforms. Zelensky, who campaigned on anti-corruption pledges in 2019, has distanced himself, vowing audits of state firms and emphasizing the independence of investigative bodies, though critics note his failed summer bid to curb NABU's autonomy. The uproar has strained Western support, with Germany's foreign minister urging a "decisive fight against corruption" at a G7 gathering, potentially jeopardizing a €140 billion EU reparations loan from frozen Russian assets.
Compounding Kyiv's isolation, a U.S. Army delegation led by Secretary Daniel Driscoll arrived in the capital on Wednesday for dual missions: assessing military strategy, drone technology sharing, and subtly advancing the peace push. Accompanied by Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George, Driscoll—briefed on the 28-point plan—met with Zelenskyy, top commanders, and lawmakers to discuss innovations like autonomous munitions that Ukraine has pioneered under duress. A Pentagon spokesperson framed the visit as a "fact-finding mission to end the war," though no formal handover of the framework occurred. The trip, unusual for Trump's administration which has favored third-country or virtual contacts with Kyiv, signals frustration with stalled talks and hopes that military channels might yield breakthroughs with Moscow.
Moscow's response has been characteristically tepid. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed reports of imminent progress, stating there are "no such plans" for Driscoll to meet Russian officials post-Kyiv and that Russia's stance remains unchanged since Anchorage. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova went further, asserting that Russia has received no official U.S. communications on any "agreements" via diplomatic channels, labeling media buzz as unsubstantiated. Despite Dmitriev's optimism, Peskov emphasized no "innovations" to report, aligning with Putin's insistence on territorial concessions and Ukrainian demilitarization as non-negotiables. Analysts interpret this as posturing, given Dmitriev's active role, but it underscores the Kremlin's strategy of leveraging battlefield gains—such as recent incursions in Donetsk—to extract favorable terms.
European allies, wary of being sidelined, have voiced alarms. U.K. Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper highlighted Putin's history of rebuffing peace overtures while escalating attacks, advocating sustained sanctions and aid to Ukraine as leverage. London, despite ties between national security adviser Jonathan Powell and Witkoff, claims no briefing on the proposals. The plan's exclusion of Ukraine has drawn sharp rebukes, with one Kyiv source decrying it as a "capitulation roadmap" that cedes land and slashes military size, potentially violating Ukraine's sovereignty. Zelenskyy's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, affirmed ongoing dialogue with Trump's team but stressed the need for a "just and lasting peace."
As winter sets in, exacerbating Ukraine's energy woes, the 28-point plan represents Trump's boldest intervention yet. Whether it fosters compromise or entrenches divisions remains unclear, but with Driscoll's delegation wrapping up and Witkoff's postponed Turkey meeting with Zelenskyy looming, the coming days could redefine the war's trajectory. Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham, briefed post-approval, expressed cautious support, noting he was unaware prior but aligns with ending the "nightmare." For now, the initiative hangs in delicate balance, a testament to the high-stakes brinkmanship defining U.S. foreign policy in 2025.
