London, November 29, 2025 – A major new analysis of more than two decades of satellite observations has revealed that vast areas of southern and central Europe are rapidly losing freshwater, threatening water supplies, agriculture, and natural ecosystems.
Scientists from University College London (UCL), working with Watershed Investigations and The Guardian, examined data collected between 2002 and 2024 by NASA’s GRACE and GRACE-FO satellites. These missions detect tiny changes in Earth’s gravity caused by shifts in water mass, effectively allowing researchers to “weigh” total water storage — including groundwater, rivers, lakes, soil moisture, and glaciers — across the continent.
The results paint a picture of a sharply divided Europe. Northern and northwestern regions, including Scandinavia, parts of the UK, Ireland, and western Portugal, have become noticeably wetter. In contrast, a broad belt stretching from Spain and Italy through France, Germany, Poland, Romania, and Ukraine has experienced severe and sustained drying, with some areas losing up to 20% of their total stored water over the study period.
“Climate change is clearly visible in the patterns we’re seeing,” said Mohammad Shamsudduha, professor of water crisis and risk reduction at UCL and lead author of the study. “When we overlay these water-storage trends with temperature and rainfall records, the correlation is unmistakable.”
Even groundwater, long considered a stable buffer against drought, is declining sharply across much of the affected region. In southeastern England, where groundwater supplies around 70% of public drinking water, the combination of heavier winter downpours and longer summer dry spells is preventing adequate recharge.
Across the European Union, groundwater abstraction has risen by 6% since 2000 despite an overall fall in total water use, placing additional pressure on dwindling reserves. Leakage from ageing pipe networks remains a chronic problem, ranging from 8% to 57% depending on the country.
Hydrologists warn that current adaptation measures are falling far behind the pace of change. Professor Hannah Cloke of the University of Reading described the long-term drying trend as “distressing” and cautioned that, without substantial winter rainfall, severe water shortages could hit England and other parts of Europe as early as next spring and summer.
Researchers stress that building new reservoirs alone will not solve the crisis. Urgent action is needed on multiple fronts: reducing demand, fixing leaks, restoring natural recharge areas, and preparing agriculture and industry for a drier future.
Shamsudduha concluded: “We have to accept that climate change is real, it’s happening now, and it is fundamentally reshaping Europe’s water landscape. The time for incremental steps has passed — we need bold, coordinated measures to secure water for people and nature in the decades ahead.”
