Helsinki, Finland – In a stark assessment of the deteriorating global security landscape, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb declared on Monday that the world has entered “a new nuclear age” where the strategic importance of nuclear weapons is once again escalating. Speaking at the opening ceremony of Finland’s 254th National Defence Course in Helsinki, Stubb painted a grim picture of a security environment that has grown “harsher than we would prefer,” with Russia’s protracted war in Ukraine serving as the primary catalyst for regional and international instability.
The National Defence Course, a prestigious annual program attended by senior military officers, government officials, business leaders, and academics, provides a platform for strategic discussions on Finland’s defense posture. This year’s edition, held at the Finnish National Defence University, underscored the urgency of adapting to an era of multidimensional threats, hybrid warfare, and shifting great-power dynamics.
Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Central Threat
President Stubb began his address by centering Russia as the focal point of Finland’s security calculus. “The assessment of our security environment begins with Russia, its objectives, and the means it employs to pursue these objectives,” he stated. He described Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fourth year, as a defining conflict that extends far beyond the borders of the two nations.
“One of these means is war, and, indeed, Russia is now in its fourth year of war in Ukraine,” Stubb continued. He framed Ukraine’s resistance not merely as a fight for national survival but as a broader defense of European security and democratic values. “Ukraine is fighting not only for its own existence but also for the whole of Europe and democracy,” he asserted, emphasizing the interconnectedness of European stability.
Finland, which shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, has historically maintained a policy of military non-alignment. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 prompted a seismic shift in Finnish public opinion and policy. In May 2022, Finland formally applied for NATO membership, and by April 2023, it became the alliance’s 31st member. This historic decision, ratified with overwhelming parliamentary support, marked the end of nearly eight decades of neutrality.
Stubb highlighted the mutual benefits of Finland’s support for Ukraine, which includes military aid, humanitarian assistance, and training programs. “Ukraine has an unparalleled understanding of modern warfare, and we are learning a lot from them. Cooperation is a two-way street,” he said. Finnish forces have gained critical insights into drone warfare, electronic jamming, and trench combat—lessons drawn from Ukraine’s innovative and resilient defense against a numerically superior adversary.
No Immediate Threat, But Vigilance Required
Despite the proximity to Russia, President Stubb reassured attendees that Moscow does not currently pose an immediate military threat to Finland. “Russia does not pose an immediate military threat to Finland,” he said, citing the Kremlin’s preoccupation with Ukraine and the degradation of its conventional forces. However, he cautioned against complacency, stressing that sustained investments in deterrence and defense capabilities are essential to forestall future risks.
Finland has significantly ramped up its defense budget in recent years. For 2025, the government allocated approximately €6.2 billion (around 2.3% of GDP) to defense—a figure that exceeds NATO’s 2% guideline. Key procurements include the acquisition of 64 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jets, with the first deliveries expected in 2026. These fifth-generation aircraft will replace Finland’s aging fleet of F/A-18 Hornets and enhance interoperability with NATO allies.
Additionally, Finland has bolstered its artillery capabilities, expanded conscription training, and invested in cyber defense infrastructure. The country’s universal conscription system, which requires all able-bodied men to serve between six and twelve months, ensures a large reserve force of over 280,000 personnel.
A World of Multidimensional Crises
President Stubb described the contemporary security environment as one characterized by “multidimensional crises.” He outlined a spectrum of threats that extend beyond traditional military confrontations to include hybrid operations—combinations of cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion.
“We must protect not only physical and digital infrastructure but also what I call ‘mental infrastructure’—the resilience and unity of society,” Stubb elaborated. He warned of foreign actors exploiting societal divisions through propaganda and influence operations, urging Finns to cultivate critical thinking and national cohesion.
In this context, Stubb issued his most alarming pronouncement: “We have moved on to a new nuclear age where, unfortunately, the role that nuclear weapons play has been increasing.” This statement reflects broader concerns about the erosion of arms control regimes. The New START treaty between the United States and Russia, the last remaining bilateral nuclear accord, is set to expire in February 2026, with little prospect for renewal amid heightened tensions.
Russia’s frequent nuclear saber-rattling, including President Vladimir Putin’s veiled threats and the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, has heightened anxieties across Europe. Meanwhile, China’s rapid nuclear arsenal expansion and North Korea’s advancing missile programs contribute to a global atmosphere of nuclear uncertainty.
Shifting U.S. Focus and Finland’s NATO Integration
Stubb also addressed the evolving role of the United States, Finland’s key bilateral partner within NATO. “Our military cooperation with Washington is thriving,” he noted, referencing joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and the U.S. Marine Corps’ rotational presence in Norway, which indirectly benefits Nordic security.
However, he acknowledged a strategic pivot in American priorities. “America’s focus is turning partly elsewhere,” Stubb said, alluding to the Indo-Pacific region and the containment of China. This shift has prompted European NATO members, including Finland, to assume greater responsibility for their own defense—a concept known as “strategic autonomy.”
Finland’s integration into NATO has been swift and seamless. The country participates in the alliance’s enhanced forward presence in the Baltic region and hosts multinational exercises such as Arctic Challenge. In December 2023, Finland signed a Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) with the United States, granting American forces access to 15 military facilities and enabling prepositioning of equipment.
Echoes of History, Lessons for the Future
Drawing historical parallels, President Stubb compared Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the armored blitzkriegs of the 1940s, particularly the Winter War of 1939–1940, when Finland repelled a Soviet invasion despite overwhelming odds. Yet, he noted that the current conflict introduces unprecedented technological dimensions, including autonomous weapons systems, artificial intelligence, and hypersonic missiles.
“Russia’s war on Ukraine echoes the armored conflicts of the 1940s while also introducing modern elements such as autonomous weapons systems,” Stubb observed. He praised Ukraine’s use of low-cost drones to neutralize high-value targets, a tactic that has revolutionized battlefield dynamics.
The Price of Peace and Freedom
In his concluding remarks, President Stubb underscored the costs of maintaining security in an unstable world. “Peace and freedom come at a price,” he declared, citing Finland’s NATO membership, F-35 procurement, and increased defense spending as indispensable investments.
He called for sustained international support for Ukraine, warning that a Russian victory would embolden aggressors worldwide. “If Ukraine falls, the rules-based international order falls with it,” Stubb cautioned.
The president’s address resonated deeply with the audience, many of whom are tasked with implementing Finland’s defense strategy. As the National Defence Course continues over the next several weeks, participants will delve into topics ranging from cyber resilience to Arctic security, reflecting the broad scope of challenges facing the nation.
Finland’s transformation from a non-aligned state to a frontline NATO member exemplifies the profound geopolitical realignments triggered by Russia’s aggression. President Stubb’s warning of a “new nuclear age” serves as a sobering reminder that the post-Cold War era of relative stability has given way to a more perilous and unpredictable world order.
As global tensions intensify, Finland stands resolute, leveraging its strategic position, technological prowess, and alliances to safeguard its sovereignty and contribute to European security. The lessons learned from Ukraine, coupled with robust deterrence, will shape the nation’s defense posture for decades to come.
