Bissau, November 1, 2025 – In a dramatic escalation of political tensions, the Guinea-Bissau military announced on Friday that it had successfully dismantled a plot by senior officers to undermine the country's constitutional order, arresting several high-ranking figures just hours before campaigning for pivotal general elections was set to commence. The development, which authorities described as a direct threat to the democratic process, has reignited fears of instability in the fragile West African nation, long plagued by coups and power struggles.
General Mamadu Ture, the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, addressed a packed press conference in the capital, Bissau, late on October 31, where he confirmed the operation's success. "This action was meticulously planned to disrupt the electoral process and subvert the constitutional order," Ture stated, his voice steady but laced with urgency. He revealed that the arrests occurred overnight on October 30, in a coordinated sweep involving army intelligence and state security services. Among the detainees was Brigadier General Daba Nawalna—also known as Dahaba Na Walna—the director of the Cuméré Military Training Centre, located approximately 30 kilometers outside Bissau. Nawalna, a former president of the Military High Court, was apprehended at his residence in the capital and accused of being one of the plot's masterminds.
Ture declined to disclose the exact number of officers involved or the specifics of their alleged scheme, citing an ongoing investigation to uncover potential accomplices. "We are committed to rooting out every element that seeks to derail our progress toward stable governance," he added. Security sources, speaking anonymously to journalists, suggested the plot may have involved plans to incite unrest during the campaign period, possibly targeting key polling sites or government installations. By Saturday morning, additional troops had been deployed around government buildings and public squares in Bissau, with checkpoints visible along major roads leading to the city's outskirts.
The timing could not have been more precarious. Campaigning for the legislative and presidential elections officially kicked off on November 1, exactly three weeks before the first round of voting on November 23. A second round, if necessary, is slated for November 30. These polls represent a critical juncture for Guinea-Bissau, a Portuguese-speaking nation of roughly 2 million people nestled along the Atlantic coast. The elections were originally envisioned as separate parliamentary and presidential contests, but delays and institutional wrangling have merged them into a high-pressure showdown. At the center stands incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who is seeking a second term amid widespread controversy over his mandate's legitimacy.
Embaló's path to re-election has been anything but smooth. Elected in a contentious 2019 runoff against opposition leader Domingos Simões Pereira of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC)—winning 54% to 46%—Embaló's victory was immediately disputed. The PAIGC alleged widespread irregularities, and neither the Supreme Court nor parliament had fully validated the results before he held a makeshift swearing-in ceremony at a Bissau hotel. Opposition figures branded it an "institutional coup," a charge that has echoed through subsequent crises.
Complicating matters further is a fierce debate over Embaló's term length. Guinea-Bissau's constitution stipulates five-year terms with a maximum of two consecutive ones. Critics, including the PAIGC, argue his mandate expired on February 27, 2025, necessitating elections by then. Embaló, backed by a recent Supreme Court ruling, insists it extends until September 4, 2025—allowing the November vote. This standoff has paralyzed institutions, with the court facing accusations of political capture. In August, Embaló sacked Prime Minister Aristides Gomes and appointed a loyalist, further alienating foes. The main opposition, PAIGC, was disqualified from the presidential race on technical grounds related to candidacy verification, clearing the field for Embaló and a handful of lesser-known challengers like Nuno Gomes Na Biem of the Democratic Alliance and independents aligned with smaller parties.
Following a cabinet meeting on October 30, Embaló himself addressed the nation, issuing a stern warning against sabotage. "No disorder will be tolerated," he declared, flanked by ministers in the presidential palace. "The government has taken all necessary measures to ensure the safety of each candidate during this campaign. We will not allow shadows from the past to eclipse our future." His words carried added weight given the foiled plot, which sources link to disgruntled elements within the military opposed to his consolidation of power. Embaló has cultivated strong ties with the armed forces, providing compensation to leaders and modernizing equipment through international partnerships. Yet, this very favoritism has bred resentment among ranks, fueling whispers of internal dissent.
Guinea-Bissau's history is a stark reminder of why such incidents evoke alarm. Since declaring independence from Portugal on September 10, 1974—following a brutal guerrilla war led by the PAIGC under Amílcar Cabral, who was assassinated in 1973—the country has endured at least four successful coups and over a dozen attempts. The first major upheaval came in 1980, when Prime Minister João Bernardo "Nino" Vieira ousted President Luís Cabral (Amílcar's brother) in a bloodless military takeover, establishing a revolutionary council. Vieira's rule, marked by authoritarianism and economic woes, ended in 1998 amid a civil war sparked by his dismissal of army chief Ansumane Mané, leading to his exile.
The early 2000s brought fleeting hope with Vieira's return via elections in 2005, only for him to be assassinated in 2009 by renegade soldiers avenging Mané's killing. This triggered another coup in 2012, just before a presidential runoff, when military leaders detained candidates Carlos Gomes Júnior and Kumba Ialá, citing fears of foreign interference from Angola. The junta's brief reign ended under ECOWAS pressure, but instability persisted. In 2022, an audacious assault on the presidential palace left several security personnel dead; Embaló survived, blaming drug traffickers and opposition-linked plotters. A year later, in December 2023, fresh gunfire rocked Bissau, prompting Embaló to dissolve parliament—dominated by the opposition Inclusive Alliance Platform (PAI-Terra Ranka)—and call snap legislative elections, which his allies narrowly won.
These cycles of upheaval are exacerbated by Guinea-Bissau's status as a notorious "narcostate." Its archipelago of over 80 islands and porous borders make it a prime transit hub for cocaine from Latin America to Europe, with the military often implicated in trafficking networks. U.S. indictments in 2012 labeled navy chief Bubo Na Tchuto a "drug kingpin," and recent plots have been tied to narco-interests resisting anti-corruption drives. Poverty compounds the fragility: With a GDP per capita of about $900, over two-thirds of the population lives below the poverty line, relying on cashew exports and subsistence fishing. Unemployment among youth, hovering at 50%, fuels disillusionment, while climate change threatens coastal communities with rising seas.
Yet, glimmers of progress have emerged since the 2014 elections, when José Mário Vaz's victory marked the first peaceful democratic transition. Civil society has mobilized, with women's groups pushing a new gender parity law mandating 36% female candidates in legislative races—a milestone passed in August 2025. The Group of Women Facilitators and youth networks are deploying 200 monitors nationwide to promote fair access to media and mediate disputes. International partners, including the UN's Integrated Peacebuilding Office (UNIOGBIS) and ECOWAS, have invested in electoral reforms, though a March 2025 mediation mission abruptly ended amid threats from Embaló's government.
As campaigning unfolds, Embaló's People's Party-Guinea-Bissau (PAIGC splinter) emphasizes infrastructure and security, while opposition voices, though fragmented, decry judicial bias and demand transparency. On X (formerly Twitter), reactions poured in swiftly: Security analyst Zagazola Makama highlighted the arrests' role in averting chaos, while users like @AfricaFactsZone noted the plot's proximity to the vote. Broader continental alarm echoed, with one post lamenting Africa's "killing fields" from Sudan to Mali.
Analysts warn that failure to address these fissures could unravel recent gains. "Guinea-Bissau stands at a crossroads," said a representative from the Institute for Security Studies. "Credible elections are not just about ballots—they're about restoring trust in institutions." With ECOWAS monitoring closely and global eyes on the Sahel's coup wave—from Mali's 2020 takeover to Burkina Faso's repeated juntas—the November polls will test whether this resilient nation can finally break its cycle of strife.
For now, Bissau's streets buzz with cautious optimism mixed with vigilance. As one local vendor told reporters, "We've danced this dance before. But this time, we pray the music doesn't stop." The stakes could not be higher: A smooth transition might bolster regional democracy; another rupture risks plunging Guinea-Bissau—and West Africa—into deeper turmoil.
