Belém, Brazil – As world leaders converge on the Amazonian city of Belém for the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), a stark diplomatic rift has emerged over Afghanistan's absence from the table. The Taliban-led government, governing the war-torn nation since 2021, expressed profound frustration on Sunday, November 9, 2025, after receiving no official invitation to the summit. Afghanistan's National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) decried the snub as a betrayal of "climate justice, global cooperation, and human solidarity," underscoring the country's acute vulnerability to escalating environmental threats despite its negligible contribution to global warming.
The COP30 conference, hosted by Brazil from November 10 to 21, 2025, is poised to be a pivotal gathering for advancing commitments under the Paris Agreement. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has branded it the "forest COP," emphasizing rainforest preservation, climate finance for developing nations, and updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to curb emissions. With over 100 heads of state expected, including U.S. President Kamala Harris and UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the event aims to bridge a $1 trillion annual funding gap for adaptation in vulnerable regions. Yet, for Afghanistan – ranked among the top 10 most climate-endangered countries by the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative – the exclusion feels like a deliberate sidelining of those who bear the brunt of a crisis they scarcely fueled.
NEPA's statement, issued via the state-run Bakhtar News Agency, highlighted Afghanistan's paltry environmental footprint: the nation accounts for just 0.06% of global greenhouse gas emissions, equivalent to roughly 35 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent annually, according to 2021 data from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). This miniscule share stems largely from agriculture and rudimentary energy use, with fossil fuel combustion playing a minor role. In stark contrast, major emitters like China (over 30% of global totals) and the United States (13%) dominate the ledger. "Afghanistan is one of the countries most vulnerable to some effects of climate change, according to scientists," NEPA emphasized, pointing to the irony of a nation punished by a problem it did not create.
The human toll is staggering. Approximately 89% of Afghanistan's 41 million people depend on rain-fed or irrigated agriculture for their livelihoods, making the sector the backbone of the economy and a buffer against poverty. Wheat, the staple crop, sustains over 80% of households, yet yields have plummeted amid erratic weather. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that agriculture contributes 25% to GDP and employs 45% of the workforce, but chronic underinvestment – exacerbated by decades of conflict and sanctions – has left irrigation systems in ruins. In rural provinces like Herat and Kandahar, farmers like 52-year-old Mohammad Karim describe a landscape transformed: "Our wells, once deep enough for three families, now yield brackish drops after hours of pumping. The soil cracks like old skin, and our children go to bed hungry."
This vulnerability has been amplified by a cascade of droughts from 2020 to 2025, the most severe in living memory. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) documented eight major droughts since 1969, but the recent string has been unrelenting. In 2021 alone, over 22 million Afghans – more than half the population – faced acute food insecurity, with 8.7 million displaced by water scarcity. Groundwater levels, the lifeline for 80% of irrigation, have plunged by up to 30 meters in arid basins like the Helmand River valley, according to a April 2025 UN Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment. Satellite interferometry from NASA's GRACE mission corroborates this, revealing subsidence rates of 7-10 mm per year in Kabul and Ghazni due to over-extraction. "These droughts have severely impacted coping capacities," UNEP warned, noting that early snowmelt from rising temperatures – projected at 2-6°C by 2090 – has slashed river flows by 20-40%.
The Taliban's return to power in August 2021, following the U.S. withdrawal, has compounded these woes through international isolation. Recognized only by Russia and a handful of allies, the regime faces sanctions that choke aid flows and reconstruction. Yet, on climate issues, they have sought engagement. At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, last November, a Taliban delegation attended as "guests" of the host nation – the first such multilateral appearance since 2021. Officials from NEPA held bilateral talks with 19 delegations, including Russia and Qatar, advocating for adaptation funding. "It was a big achievement to raise our voice," said Hamed Safi, a NEPA delegate, emphasizing shared regional threats like glacial melt in the Hindu Kush. But observer status barred them from formal negotiations, a frustration echoed in NEPA's COP30 plea: "Political isolation should not prevent Afghans from international climate talks."
This year's exclusion, NEPA argues, risks silencing a critical perspective. Afghanistan's Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2012 outlined a 13.6% emissions cut by 2030, conditional on $245 million in aid – funds that never materialized amid frozen assets post-2021. Domestically, the Taliban has touted initiatives like the October 2025 "Afghanistan on the Road to COP30" forum in Kabul, where experts discussed watershed management and drought-resistant crops. Critics, however, point to governance gaps: women's exclusion from education and public life limits agricultural innovation, as female farmers – who manage 60% of household plots – are sidelined.
Globally, the stakes could not be higher. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts 2025 as the second- or third-hottest year on record, trailing only 2024's 1.55°C anomaly above pre-industrial levels. With an 80% chance of breaching 1.5°C in at least one year through 2029, per WMO's May 2025 update, vulnerable nations like Afghanistan face amplified risks: flash floods killed 300 in Baghlan Province in May 2025, while La Niña-driven dryness threatens a 6.6% GDP contraction from crop failures. "The year 2025 was on course to be among the hottest years ever recorded," the UN reiterated ahead of COP30, urging $100 billion in annual adaptation finance – a pledge repeatedly unmet.
For Afghan activists like former NEPA advisor Fatima Ahmadi, now in exile in Pakistan, the impasse is existential. "We are not asking for legitimacy; we are asking for survival," she told reporters via video link from Islamabad. "Droughts don't recognize borders or regimes – neither should climate action." International NGOs echo this: Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have called for inclusive talks, arguing that sidelining Afghanistan perpetuates a cycle of humanitarian aid dependency, with 22.9 million needing assistance in 2025.
As COP30 unfolds, pressure mounts on UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bureau to revisit Afghanistan's credentials. Host Brazil, a biodiversity powerhouse, has signaled openness to "observer innovations" for non-recognized entities, per COP30 President-designate André Corrêa do Lago. Yet, with G7 nations prioritizing emissions cuts and loss-and-damage funds, the voices from Kabul risk fading into the humid Belém air. For a nation where 18.8 million grapple with acute hunger – projected to hit 22.8 million by year-end – the real summit may be the one fought daily in parched fields.
In the shadow of the Amazon, COP30's "Call of Belém" for urgent decarbonization rings hollow without addressing such inequities. As NEPA implored, true solidarity demands not exclusion, but elevation of the most exposed. With 2025's heat unyielding, the world cannot afford to look away.
