Kyiv, November 21, 2025 – As frigid winds sweep across the Ukrainian steppes, signaling the onset of the war's fourth brutal winter, the nation confronts not just plummeting temperatures but a geopolitical storm that could redefine its future. President Donald Trump has issued a stark ultimatum to Kyiv: accept a U.S.-backed 28-point peace proposal by Thanksgiving—November 27—or risk the abrupt halt of American military aid, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic cover in its grinding conflict with Russia. In a radio interview on Fox News Radio's "The Brian Kilmeade Show" Friday morning, Trump described the holiday as "an appropriate time" for a decision, adding, "I've had a lot of deadlines, but if things are working well, you tend to extend the deadlines." The proposal, leaked to media outlets and reportedly drafted in secretive talks between U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev, demands Ukraine cede significant territories—including Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk—to Moscow, slash its military to 600,000 personnel, and forswear NATO membership in perpetuity. This "framework," as White House officials term it, promises Ukraine EU accession eligibility and World Bank-backed reconstruction funds but omits robust Western peacekeeping forces, a red line for Kyiv and its European backers.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a somber televised address to the nation Friday afternoon, framed the dilemma as an existential crossroads: "either losing a major partner [the U.S.] or Ukraine’s dignity." "Today is one of the most difficult moments in our history," Zelenskyy intoned, his voice steady but eyes shadowed by fatigue after nearly four years of unyielding defense against Russia's full-scale invasion launched in February 2022. He vowed not to "betray Ukraine’s national interest" but stopped short of outright rejection, signaling a pragmatic pivot toward negotiation. Later that evening, Zelenskyy posted on X (formerly Twitter) about a nearly hour-long call with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, where he outlined Kyiv's "key principles" for amendments: a "real and dignified peace" that safeguards sovereignty and prevents future Russian incursions. "We’re working to make the path forward dignified and truly effective for achieving a lasting peace," he wrote, attaching a photo of the virtual discussion.
The plan's contours, first detailed in a CNN exclusive Thursday, have sparked outrage in Kyiv for echoing Moscow's maximalist demands without reciprocal concessions from Russia—such as troop withdrawals or reparations for war crimes documented by the International Criminal Court. Under the draft, implementation would fall to a "Peace Council" chaired by Trump himself, with sanctions enforced for violations. Ukrainian officials, speaking anonymously to Reuters, described it as "dramatically skewed toward Moscow," potentially amounting to "capitulation" that would leave the country vulnerable to renewed aggression. Zelenskyy's office confirmed receipt of the document during Driscoll's visit to Kyiv on Thursday, but emphasized that "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" must guide revisions.
European allies, blindsided by the U.S.-Russia bilateral drafting process, rallied swiftly behind Zelenskyy in a chorus of condemnation and solidarity. Germany's Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul dismissed the 28 points as "not a real plan" but a mere "list of topics requiring further work," insisting that "only Ukraine can decide about compromises." In a joint statement following a Friday call among Nordic-Baltic leaders—including Finland's President Alexander Stubb and Latvia's Prime Minister Evika Siliņa—they affirmed "full support for Ukraine" and coordination for a "just and lasting peace," with the current front lines as the negotiation baseline. The UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer, speaking en route to the G20 in South Africa, echoed that "matters concerning Ukraine are for Ukraine to decide," underscoring sovereignty as non-negotiable.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas issued a stark warning from the EU-Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum in Brussels: "If you just give in to the aggression, then you invite more aggression and this is dangerous." She advocated for European inclusion in talks, noting the bloc's "two-point plan: weaken Russia; support Ukraine" through escalated sanctions. France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot hosted an evening call with counterparts, stressing that any deal impacting NATO or the EU demands "consensus among allies." Leaders from Poland's Donald Tusk to Czech President Petr Pavel reiterated: "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine," with Pavel adding that peace must not "punish the victim" or ignore atrocities. Zelenskyy responded to these overtures on X, thanking each ally individually: "Thank you for your support!"—a thread underscoring the transatlantic rift.
From the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin struck a conciliatory yet opportunistic tone. In televised remarks to senior officials Friday, he confirmed Moscow's receipt of the proposals and deemed them a potential "basis for a final peaceful settlement." However, Putin chided Kyiv and Europe for ignoring "the reality" of Russian battlefield gains, warning that Ukraine must negotiate "now" or forfeit more land—echoing claims of encircling thousands of Ukrainian troops in Kharkiv. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov clarified that no formal document had arrived, but Russia stood by positions aired at Trump's August summit with Putin in Anchorage, Alaska—demanding resolution of "root causes" like NATO expansion. Analysts interpret this as stalling: Moscow benefits from sanctions relief dangled in the plan, including G8 reinstatement and economic reintegration, while advancing slowly in Donetsk and Luhansk.
This diplomatic maelstrom unfolds against a harrowing backdrop on the ground, where Ukraine braces for what officials dub the "worst winter" yet. Russian missile and drone barrages—the ninth major energy strike since October—have slashed power generation to under half prewar levels, triggering blackouts of 8-16 hours daily across most regions. On November 8-9 alone, a record 45 missiles and 458 drones hammered substations near nuclear plants in Khmelnytskyi and Rivne, killing three and injuring 12 in Dnipro. Ukrenergo, the state grid operator, warns of "zero" capacity in affected areas, with rolling outages persisting through winter unless repairs accelerate.
The assaults extend beyond electricity to gas infrastructure, Ukraine's primary heating source. Strikes have caused temporary shortages in cities like Kharkiv and Odesa, forcing families to hoard firewood and portable stoves. Naftogaz, the state energy giant, has surged imports 19-fold year-over-year to 4.4 billion cubic meters—at a $2 billion cost—to avert collapse, but experts fear sustained hits could leave millions without heat as temperatures drop to -20°C (-4°F). In Kyiv, astrologer Olena Viter, who fled in 2022 and returned last year, described life as "camping indoors": boiling water on gas burners during blackouts, rationing phone charges via power banks. Eastern residents like Maria Morozova in Nizhyn are stacking wood and plotting evacuations to wood-heated homes, while generators hum incessantly in the capital—fuel costs straining war-weary budgets.
Energy Minister Svitlana Grynchuk called the November 8 barrage "the war’s most challenging night," urging citizens to shun high-wattage appliances. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha appealed to the UN's nuclear watchdog and powers like China and India to curb Moscow's strikes. With consumption down 30% from prewar norms due to displacement and conservation, generation losses exceed 50%, per Ukrenergo's Vitaliy Zaichenko—portending volatility unless air defenses bolster. Zelenskyy, requesting 25 Patriot systems from U.S. firms, tied the crisis to broader stakes: "Russia can’t turn a blind eye" as Ukraine innovates missile defenses.
As Zelenskyy prepares counter-proposals with Britain, France, and Germany—aiming for talks with Trump next week—the Thanksgiving clock ticks. UN Secretary-General António Guterres interjected Friday, insisting any accord "abide" by resolutions upholding Ukraine's territorial integrity. For now, Ukraine endures: soldiers holding lines in Pokrovsk amid 173 daily clashes, civilians layering blankets against the chill, and leaders navigating a high-wire act between alliance and autonomy. Whether this deadline births peace or peril remains the autumn's cruelest uncertainty.
