HOUSTON, United States – In a significant victory for Republican efforts to safeguard their narrow control of the US House of Representatives, a panel of three federal judges in North Carolina ruled unanimously on Wednesday that the state can proceed with a newly redrawn congressional map for the 2026 midterm elections. The decision, handed down by the US District Court for the Middle District of North Carolina, rejects challenges claiming the map constitutes racial gerrymandering and dilutes the voting power of Black voters, potentially paving the way for Republicans to gain an additional seat in the state's 14-member delegation.
The ruling comes amid a nationwide redistricting frenzy ignited by President Donald Trump's public calls for GOP-controlled states to redraw congressional boundaries outside the traditional decennial cycle tied to the US Census. With Republicans clinging to a slim 219-213 majority in the House – vulnerable to the historical midterm backlash against the president's party – these mid-decade maneuvers represent a high-stakes gamble to entrench conservative advantages before the November 2026 elections. Analysts estimate the North Carolina map could flip the Democratic-held 1st Congressional District, currently represented by Rep. Don Davis, into a Republican stronghold by redistributing voters in the state's northeastern "Black Belt" region. This shift would mark the fourth GOP gain in North Carolina since the 2020 Census, following a 2023 map that already delivered three extra Republican seats in 2024.
The three-judge panel – all appointed by Republican presidents with the exception of one Obama appointee confirmed unanimously by the Senate – issued a 57-page opinion dismissing preliminary injunction requests from plaintiffs including the North Carolina NAACP, Common Cause North Carolina, and individual voters. The challengers argued that the map, enacted in October 2025 by the Republican-led General Assembly, violates the 14th Amendment, the First Amendment, and Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by dismantling a historically Black voting bloc that has elected Democratic representatives for over 50 years. They contended that the rapid redrawing process – initiated just weeks after Trump's directive – was a retaliatory move against voters in eastern North Carolina who supported Davis in 2024, effectively "cracking" Black communities across districts to minimize their electoral influence.
In their rebuttal, the judges emphasized that partisan gerrymandering claims are nonjusticiable under the Supreme Court's 2019 ruling in Rucho v. Common Cause, which held that excessive partisanship in congressional maps lies beyond federal courts' purview. On racial discrimination allegations, the panel found plaintiffs failed to demonstrate a "clear showing" of likely success, noting they "have not made clear" how the map minimizes Black voting potential and offered "no reason to believe that the speed of the 2025 process indicates an intent to discriminate on the basis of race." The court also rejected arguments that the legislature's mid-decade action circumvented ongoing litigation over the 2023 map, which the same panel upheld just last week against similar racial bias claims.
Bob Phillips, executive director of Common Cause North Carolina, decried the decision as a "blessing to what will be the most gerrymandered congressional map in state history," vowing to appeal to the US Supreme Court. An appeal could fast-track to the high court, potentially aligning with its crowded docket on redistricting disputes. While not immediately clear if the NAACP would join the appeal, the ruling's fate may hinge on the justices' willingness to intervene before North Carolina's March 2026 primaries.
This North Carolina outcome is just one front in a broader partisan skirmish over electoral maps, sparked by Trump's August 2025 exhortation to Republican governors and legislators. In a White House address, Trump declared that "radical Democrats are trying to steal the House," urging states like Texas, Florida, and North Carolina to "fight back" by redrawing districts to "protect our majority and the America First agenda." The push breaks with over a century of tradition limiting redistricting to post-Census years, aiming to offset projected midterm losses – historically averaging 28 seats for the president's party since 1950. Critics, including voting rights advocates, label it an "unprecedented power grab" that invites endless litigation and erodes democratic norms.
Texas, the epicenter of this battle, drew national scrutiny when its Republican-controlled legislature passed a new map in August 2025, potentially netting five GOP seats by targeting Democratic strongholds in urban and Hispanic-majority areas. Gov. Greg Abbott signed the bill without public hearings, prompting swift lawsuits from civil rights groups alleging racial gerrymandering that dilutes Black and Latino votes in violation of the Voting Rights Act. A three-judge federal panel ruled on November 18 that "substantial evidence" showed the map relied excessively on race, ordering a return to the 2021 boundaries for 2026. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton appealed, and on November 21, Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary stay, reinstating the new map pending full Supreme Court review – a move challengers decried as enabling "mathematical precision" in racial targeting. With candidate filing deadlines looming on December 8, the high court's decision could arrive by early December, influencing primary preparations and national momentum.
Democrats fired back from California, the nation's most populous state and a Democratic bastion. On November 4, voters approved Proposition 50 by a 58-42 margin, suspending the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission's 2021 maps and adopting legislature-drawn boundaries that could flip up to five Republican-held seats – including those of Reps. Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley, and Doug LaMalfa – by consolidating conservative rural areas with liberal enclaves like Marin County. Gov. Gavin Newsom championed the measure as the "Election Rigging Response Act," framing it as a direct counter to Trump's "scheme" in Texas and beyond, with endorsements from former President Barack Obama bolstering turnout. The new lines, effective through 2030, unite disparate communities – such as far-northern conservatives with San Francisco suburbs – to dilute GOP voting power without altering California's 52 districts.
California Republicans and the Trump Justice Department swiftly sued, alleging the map racially gerrymanders to favor Hispanic voters, packing them into hyper-Democratic districts while cracking Anglo conservative blocs. A federal judge in Sacramento allowed the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to intervene in defense, but the case – joined by the DOJ under Acting Civil Rights Division head Harmeet Dhillon – could escalate to the Supreme Court, mirroring Texas's trajectory. Newsom hailed the Texas court's initial block as a "win for democracy," but warned that without Prop 50, Republicans' gains elsewhere would "end Trump's presidency as we know it."
The Supreme Court's shadow looms large over these disputes. Beyond Texas, the justices are scrutinizing maps in Alabama (Merrill v. Milligan remand), Louisiana (Robinson v. Ardoin, reheard October 2025), and North Dakota (state legislative challenges), where Section 2 claims could be upended. In Alabama, a 2023 ruling forced a second majority-Black district; a reversal could eliminate it, benefiting Republicans. Louisiana's case questions Section 2's constitutionality, potentially gutting protections against vote dilution in polarized Southern states and erasing up to 30% of the Congressional Black Caucus. North Dakota's appeal targets Native American voting blocs in legislative maps, with ripple effects for congressional lines.
Trump's pressure campaign has yielded mixed results elsewhere. In Missouri and Ohio, Republicans enacted maps adding one and two seats, respectively, but face lawsuits. Indiana's GOP senate initially rebuffed Gov. Mike Braun's call for a special session, prompting Trump's threat of primary challenges via MAGA grassroots; lawmakers now reconvene in December. Florida's House Speaker formed a redistricting committee, eyeing two to four gains, while Kansas and New Hampshire resist amid fears of backlash. Democrats eye retaliatory moves in Illinois, New York, and Virginia, where a proposed amendment could net two to three seats.
As of November 27, 2025, six states – California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Utah – have adopted new maps, with four more (Alabama, Louisiana, New York, North Dakota) in flux pending court rulings. Projections suggest net-zero gains if Texas and California maps hold, but a GOP-friendly Supreme Court tilt could tip 10-15 seats Republican, per the Brennan Center. Voting rights experts warn this "gerrymandering arms race" – the largest since the 1800s – risks "decades of Republican rule" if unchecked, eroding trust in elections where minority communities bear the brunt. With primaries months away, the battle lines are drawn not just on maps, but in courtrooms that will define American democracy's next chapter.
