Bissau, Guinea-Bissau – December 3, 2025 – In a stunning blow to West Africa's fragile democratic hopes, Guinea-Bissau's National Electoral Commission (CNE) declared on Tuesday that it can no longer finalize the results of the November 23 presidential and legislative elections. Armed intruders ransacked the commission's headquarters, seizing tally sheets from key regions and destroying servers that held the digital records of the vote. The break-in occurred on November 26 – the same day the military seized power in a swift coup, suspending the electoral process just hours before provisional results were due to be announced.
The CNE's announcement, delivered during a tense press conference in the capital Bissau, painted a picture of deliberate sabotage. "Unidentified armed and hooded individuals stormed our premises," said CNE spokesperson José Pedro Sambú, detailing how the assailants confiscated computers from all 45 staff members on site and intercepted physical tally sheets en route from rural polling stations. The destruction was comprehensive: ballots were seized, regional vote compilations vanished, and the central server – the backbone of the results aggregation – was irreparably damaged. Sambú emphasized that without these materials, the commission faces a "total impossibility" to certify the outcome, leaving the nation in limbo and fueling accusations of an orchestrated effort to bury unfavorable results.
This electoral catastrophe unfolded against the backdrop of one of Guinea-Bissau's most contentious votes in years. The West African nation of 2.2 million, a former Portuguese colony notorious for its instability and role as a cocaine trafficking hub between Latin America and Europe, has endured at least nine successful or attempted coups since independence in 1974. The November 23 elections pitted incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, a former army general who rose to power in a disputed 2020 vote, against opposition challenger Fernando Dias da Costa, a 47-year-old political newcomer backed by a coalition including the influential African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). Embaló, seeking a second term amid allegations of tenure overreach – his mandate was contested, with opponents claiming it expired in February 2025 – faced widespread criticism for barring the PAIGC from fielding a presidential candidate, a move decried by civil society as anti-democratic.
Polling day itself was relatively peaceful, with international observers, including missions from the African Union (AU) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), reporting high turnout and few irregularities. Yet, euphoria quickly soured into chaos. By November 24, both Embaló and Dias had prematurely declared victory, with Dias claiming a 52% lead based on partial tallies shared by his campaign. Embaló's camp dismissed the opposition's figures as fabricated, while supporters of Dias accused the president of inflating his numbers through state media. As the CNE prepared for its November 27 announcement, gunfire erupted near the presidential palace, interior ministry, and electoral headquarters, sending hundreds fleeing in panic.
Hours later, army officers appeared on state television, declaring "total control" and establishing the High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order. They arrested Embaló at his office without resistance, along with Interior Minister Botché Candé and former Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira, a Dias ally. In a bizarre twist, Embaló himself phoned France 24 from custody, proclaiming, "I have been deposed," and later addressed global media outlets while allegedly under guard – a detail that has since become central to claims the takeover was staged. The military justified the intervention as a preemptive strike against a "plot by narcotraffickers, politicians, and foreign actors" to manipulate results and destabilize the country, a narrative that echoes Guinea-Bissau's deep ties to international drug networks.
On November 27, the junta formalized its grip by swearing in former army chief of staff Major-General Horta Inta-A – a close Embaló ally – as head of a one-year transitional government. Inta-A, flanked by uniformed officers at army headquarters, vowed to "restore order" and outlined a roadmap including border reopenings and a ban on protests. By Saturday, he had appointed a 28-member cabinet dominated by Embaló loyalists, including Finance Minister Ilídio Vieira Té as prime minister, signaling continuity rather than rupture. Embaló, released after brief detention, fled first to Senegal on a chartered flight negotiated by Dakar, then to Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo, where he remains in exile.
The opposition, undeterred, decried the events as a "fabricated coup" orchestrated by Embaló to evade defeat. "Umaro lost the elections, and instead of accepting the result, he fabricated a coup d’état," Dias declared in a viral video, vowing to fight for transparency. Clashes erupted in Bissau's suburbs, with armed militias storming PAIGC offices, while civil society groups called for street demonstrations – swiftly quashed by the junta's curfew and protest bans.
Regional and international backlash has been swift. ECOWAS, led by Sierra Leone's President Julius Maada Bio, dispatched a high-level delegation to Bissau on December 1, where heated talks urged the junta to resume the electoral process and release detainees. The bloc suspended Guinea-Bissau from decision-making bodies, warning of sanctions, and its Stabilization Support Mission remains deployed to monitor the volatile situation. The AU echoed the condemnation, suspending the country until constitutional order is restored and demanding Embaló's unconditional release – though he is now free. UN Secretary-General António Guterres appealed for restraint, highlighting the coup as part of a "disturbing surge" of nine military interventions in West and Central Africa since 2020.
Amid the diplomatic frenzy, Nigeria emerged as a key player. On November 30, President Bola Tinubu authorized asylum for Dias at the Nigerian embassy in Bissau, citing "imminent threats to his life" from pro-junta forces. Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar's letter to ECOWAS requested additional security from the regional stabilization force, framing the move as a defense of "democratic aspirations." Dias, holed up in the embassy, continues to assert his victory, telling supporters via video that the coup was a "desperate ploy" by Embaló's allies.
Adding fuel to the intrigue, former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan – who led the West African Elders Forum's observation mission and was briefly trapped in Bissau during the upheaval – dropped a bombshell on November 28. Speaking upon his evacuation to Nigeria, Jonathan dismissed the events as "not a coup" but a "ceremonial coup," arguing the military's leniency toward Embaló defied coup norms. "It is the president, President Umaro Embaló, that announced the coup. Before later, a military man came up to address the world that they were in charge," he said, noting Embaló's unfettered media access while "arrested." Drawing from his ECOWAS mediation in Mali's 2012 coup, Jonathan questioned: "No military leader would allow the ousted president to speak freely to the international media." He urged ECOWAS and the AU to publish the collated results, insisting observers had verified a peaceful vote and that the data – though partially destroyed – could be reconstructed from backups held by missions.
Jonathan's remarks, echoed by Senegal's Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko who called it a "sham," have amplified suspicions of a self-coup. Analysts argue the takeover "looks more like an attempt to maintain the status quo" than upend it, pointing to Inta-A's Embaló ties and the junta's pro-ousted-president cabinet. Guinea-Bissau's narco-state reputation adds another layer: experts link the instability to battles over drug routes, with the junta's "narcotrafficker plot" claim possibly a deflection.
As ECOWAS's delegation wraps up its Bissau visit – marked by raised voices and stalled progress – the stakes remain high. Protests simmer underground, borders are porous, and economic woes – from cashew exports to aid dependency – loom large. For Guinea-Bissau's long-suffering citizens, the "ceremonial" facade crumbles under the weight of stolen ballots and shattered trust. Will regional pressure force a recount, or will the one-year transition entrench military rule? The world watches a nation teetering on the edge, where democracy's theft feels all too real.
