In a stark escalation of U.S.-Venezuela relations, President Donald Trump stated on December 19, 2025, that he is not ruling out the possibility of military action, including war, against the South American nation led by Nicolás Maduro. During a phone interview with NBC News, Trump responded to a question about whether a full-scale conflict was possible with: “I don’t rule it out, no.”
Trump's remarks come amid a sustained U.S. pressure campaign that includes a significant naval buildup in the Caribbean, strikes on vessels accused of drug trafficking, the seizure of a Venezuelan-linked oil tanker, and a recently announced blockade targeting sanctioned oil shipments. The president emphasized that Maduro "knows exactly what I want. He knows better than anybody," while declining to explicitly confirm regime change as the goal. He also warned of further tanker seizures, stating: “If they’re foolish enough to be sailing along, they’ll be sailing along back into one of our harbours.”
The U.S. has accused Maduro's government of using oil revenues—described by the administration as "stolen"—to finance what it calls a dictatorship involved in drug trafficking and "drug terrorism." Washington claims Venezuela enables narcotics flows into the United States, though experts note the country's role is primarily as a transit point rather than a major producer. Maduro has vehemently denied these allegations, framing U.S. actions as an imperialist plot to overthrow his government and seize Venezuela's vast oil reserves, the largest proven in the world.
Tensions have intensified since September 2025, when U.S. forces began conducting lethal strikes on boats in the Caribbean and Pacific Oceans suspected of drug smuggling. These operations have resulted in over 100 deaths across more than 28 incidents, drawing international criticism and congressional scrutiny, including over a controversial "double-tap" strike. On December 10, 2025, U.S. special forces seized an oil tanker off Venezuela's coast—the first such interdiction of Venezuelan oil cargo since sanctions began in 2019—prompting Caracas to label it "international piracy."
On December 16, Trump ordered a "total and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, targeting the country's primary revenue source. This affects a significant portion of Venezuela's exports, much of which goes to China, amid U.S. concerns over Beijing's growing influence in the Western Hemisphere. The blockade followed a massive U.S. naval deployment, including the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and over 15,000 personnel—the largest in the region since the Cold War era.
Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves but has seen production plummet due to underinvestment, infrastructure decay, and longstanding U.S., EU, and other international sanctions imposed after the violent suppression of protests in the 2010s. Exports have increasingly shifted to allies like China and Russia, which Trump views as a geopolitical threat in America's backyard. Analysts, such as David Smilde from Tulane University, argue that Venezuela's alliances with Beijing and Moscow clash with Trump's worldview, particularly given its resource wealth including oil, minerals, and rare earths.
Maduro's government has responded defiantly, with the navy escorting tankers and officials rejecting U.S. threats as violations of international law. Caracas has filed complaints with bodies like the International Maritime Organization and accused Washington of aiming for regime change. Despite economic hardships—exacerbated by sanctions and leading to hyperinflation and mass migration—Venezuelans appear resilient, with some preparing modestly for potential disruptions but many expressing exhaustion from years of crisis.
Trump's approach has drawn mixed domestic reactions. While some Republicans support tough measures against drug trafficking, others like Sen. Josh Hawley oppose forced regime change. Public opinion polls show majority opposition to military action in Venezuela. Internationally, the strikes and blockade have raised legal concerns, with experts questioning their compliance with laws of armed conflict and the UN Charter.
The situation remains fluid, with Trump hinting at land-based operations "pretty soon" in prior statements, though he has also floated potential talks with Maduro. As the U.S. continues its offensive—framed officially as counternarcotics but perceived by critics as broader geopolitical maneuvering—the risk of direct confrontation looms, testing Trump's "no new wars" campaign promise in a region critical to U.S. interests.
