Washington, D.C. – December 1, 2025 – In a dramatic escalation of the long-simmering crisis in South America, U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly delivered a stark ultimatum to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro during a tense phone call last week, urging him to flee the country immediately or face dire consequences. The exchange, brokered by intermediaries including Brazil, Qatar, and Turkey, highlights the deepening rift between Washington and Caracas, amid a massive U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and warnings of impending land operations. Sources familiar with the discussion described the conversation as reaching an impasse, with Maduro’s counter-demands for amnesty and military control swiftly rejected by the Trump administration.
The call, which occurred late in the week of November 16, 2025, marked the first direct communication between the two leaders since Trump’s return to the White House earlier this year. Trump conveyed a blunt message: “You can save yourself and those closest to you, but you must leave the country now.” The U.S. offered safe passage out of Venezuela for Maduro, his wife Cilia Flores, and their son, but only on the condition of his immediate resignation to pave the way for democratic restoration. This offer extended potentially to other top allies, though details remain sparse.
However, the dialogue quickly soured when Maduro sought two key concessions: global amnesty for alleged crimes committed by him and his inner circle, including narco-trafficking charges, and the retention of command over Venezuela’s armed forces in exchange for allowing free elections. Washington dismissed both proposals outright, insisting on Maduro’s unconditional departure. The Venezuelan side proposed a delayed timeline—up to 18 months for a transition—but U.S. officials viewed this as stalling tactics amid mounting evidence of election fraud in Venezuela’s July 2024 presidential vote, where opposition candidate Edmundo González was widely believed to have won.
Following the breakdown, the Maduro regime attempted to schedule a follow-up call over the subsequent weekend, but received no response from the White House. This silence coincided with Trump’s public acknowledgment of the conversation during a press interaction on Sunday, November 30. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Washington, D.C., the president was characteristically terse: “I wouldn’t say it went well or badly.” His comments came mere hours after a provocative declaration on his Truth Social platform, where he warned that “THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA [SHOULD BE CONSIDERED] CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.” The post, addressed to “Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers,” prompted immediate backlash from Caracas, with Foreign Minister Yvan Gil labeling it a “colonialist threat” and a violation of international law under the U.N. Charter.
Trump’s airspace advisory builds on a Federal Aviation Administration notice issued earlier in November, urging caution due to “worsening security situations” and “heightened military activity” in the region. In response, Venezuela’s civil aviation authority revoked landing rights for six international carriers, including American Airlines and Delta, accusing them of aligning with U.S. “state terrorism.” Several airlines, including Lufthansa and Air France, have since rerouted flights, effectively isolating Venezuela further and exacerbating its economic woes. Flight tracking data shows a sharp decline in overflights, with commercial traffic dropping by over 70% in the past week.
The diplomatic freeze and airspace rhetoric are symptoms of a broader U.S. pressure campaign that has transformed the Caribbean into a powder keg. Since August 2025, the Trump administration has orchestrated its largest military deployment in the region since the 1989 Panama invasion, framing it initially as “Operation Southern Spear”—a counter-narcotics effort targeting the so-called Cartel de los Soles, which U.S. officials allege is led by Maduro and his top lieutenants. The operation has already resulted in at least 21 airstrikes on suspected drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, killing more than 82 individuals.
By late November, U.S. forces in the southern Caribbean had swelled to over 10,000 personnel, including elements of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group—the world’s largest aircraft carrier, carrying more than 4,000 sailors, F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, and EA-18G Growlers for electronic warfare. Accompanying the carrier are nine additional warships, a nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine, up to 2,200 Marines from Camp Lejeune, F-35B stealth fighters stationed at the reactivated Roosevelt Roads Naval Base in Puerto Rico, and B-52 and B-1B bombers conducting flyovers near Venezuelan waters. This arsenal provides sufficient firepower for an air campaign or even limited ground incursions.
On Thanksgiving Day, November 27, Trump amplified the threats during a video address to U.S. troops, stating that military operations “by land” could commence “very soon” to dismantle narco-trafficking networks. This shift from maritime interdictions to potential terrestrial actions has alarmed regional allies and adversaries alike. Venezuela, in turn, has mobilized nearly 200,000 troops across all branches, activating “Independence Plan 200” to coordinate military, police, and civilian militias along 284 “battlefronts.” Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López described the posture as defensive against “foreign provocation,” while Russian officials have reportedly delivered advanced air defense systems to bolster Caracas’s capabilities.
The U.S. escalation is rooted in multifaceted grievances against Maduro’s regime. Since assuming power in 2013, Maduro has presided over a catastrophic economic collapse, with hyperinflation once exceeding 1 million percent and GDP shrinking by over 75%. More than 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country, creating the largest refugee crisis in Latin American history. The U.S. has imposed sanctions since 2017, recently designating Maduro and figures like Diosdado Cabello as leaders of the Cartel de los Soles—a Foreign Terrorist Organization accused of shipping tons of cocaine to the U.S. via Caribbean routes. A $50 million bounty on Maduro—the highest ever for a sitting head of state—and $25 million for Cabello underscore Washington’s resolve.
Human rights abuses compound the charges: The United Nations has documented extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detentions, and torture by Maduro’s forces, particularly against opposition protesters. The disputed 2024 election, marred by fraud allegations, triggered mass demonstrations suppressed with lethal force, killing at least 27. International observers, including the Carter Center, deemed the vote neither free nor fair. Opposition leader María Corina Machado, barred from running, has called for international intervention, while exiled candidate González urges peaceful transition from Spain.
Regionally, the crisis divides neighbors. Guyana endorses U.S. actions amid Venezuela’s territorial claims on its Essequibo region. Trinidad and Tobago hosts U.S. warships for joint exercises, but CARICOM foreign ministers have pleaded for de-escalation. Cuba and Nicaragua decry the moves as “imperialist,” while Russia and China provide diplomatic cover—and possibly matériel—to Maduro. Brazilian President Lula da Silva, who mediated the call, has advocated dialogue but faces domestic pressure to distance from Maduro.
Defense experts warn that Maduro’s military, plagued by corruption and obsolescence—much of its Russian-sourced equipment dating to the 2000s—is ill-equipped for confrontation. Potential responses include guerrilla tactics or “anarchization” via ruling-party militias to sow chaos in Caracas. Maduro now confronts his most serious threat yet, as U.S. intelligence eyes covert operations, including CIA-led ground actions.
Critics in the U.S., including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, decry the brinkmanship as risking “another costly foreign war.” Yet Trump allies frame the ultimatum as a diplomatic off-ramp, insisting Maduro was given “a chance to leave.”
As of December 1, no further calls have materialized, and U.S. assets remain poised. Maduro, addressing supporters in Caracas on Sunday, brandished a sword and vowed “total resistance,” but analysts detect cracks: defections among mid-level officers and whispers of amnesty deals among the elite. With GPS jamming reported in Venezuelan airspace and Russian hypersonic missiles rumored en route, the hemisphere holds its breath. Whether this ultimatum yields exile or explosion remains the defining question of Trump’s second term in Latin America.
